D'Angelo Russell

Friday’s fantasy basketball Showdown contests feature a choice between three NBA games: Dallas Mavericks at Philadelphia 76ers (8:00 p.m. ET), Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets (9:00 p.m. ET) and New Orleans Pelicans at Golden State Warriors (10:30 p.m. ET). This article will focus on the late game. The Pelicans are 1-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, and the game has been given a total points of 225.5.

Eric Paschall (hip) is probable for the Warriors. For up-to-the-minute news, analysis and lineups, download the DK Live app, as NBA news, injury reports and betting lines on DraftKings Sportsbook can change throughout the day. Value also unexpectedly can open up due to late lineup changes and late injury news, making it important to stay up-to-the-minute with the DK Live app until lineups lock. You also can follow DK Live on Twitter @dklive.

Note: All salaries will be Flex prices unless noted as Captain’s Pick prices.

Set your lineups here: NBA Showdown $50K Pull Up Jumper [$10K to 1st]


BETTING TRENDS

–The Warriors have a 4-5-1 against-the-spread record at Chase Center after a loss in 2019-20

–The Pelicans have covered the spread in 36% of their games in 2019-20

–The Pelicans are 3-4 as favorites in 2019-20

–The Warriors are 5-20 as underdogs in 2019-20

Stats provided by DraftKings Sportsbook


SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

This matchup features two of the worst defensive teams in the league. By points allowed per possession, both the Pelicans and Warriors rank in the bottom five in the league. New Orleans’ fast pace has them allowing the second most points per game, while Golden State’s below average pace drops them from the fifth worst defensive team by points allowed per possession to ninth worst by points allowed per game. Both the Pelicans and Warriors also rank worse than average in assists allowed to opponents and rebounds allowed to opponents. Because each team is prone to allowing elevated points, assists and rebounds, fantasy scoring should be easier to come by in this setting.

With the Pelicans allowing the second most points to opponents and sixth most rebounds to opponents, the Warriors make for good fantasy targets. D’Angelo Russell ($9,600) is easily Golden State’s top fantasy option due to a plethora of injuries to their key players. Since Stephen Curry (hand) went out of the lineup, Russell has posted a heavy 33% usage rate, tied for fourth highest among all starters. Russell is taking about 19 shots per game while creating about 12 potential assists per game during that stretch, and he carries large point and assist upside against a Pelicans team that is prone to allowing points and assists.

Draymond Green ($8,000) ranks second on the Warriors in facilitating, creating about nine potential assists per game. Green’s minute load has been uncertain as the Warriors look to manage his workload in a lost season, but he has played as many as 39 minutes as recently as three games ago. Provided Green plays close to a normal amount of minutes, he is also in a good fantasy spot against a poor defensive team, although he does carry some risk of a dip in volume if his minutes are managed.

In addition to Russell and Green, other options for Golden State include Alec Burks ($6,800), Willie Cauley-Stein ($5,600) and Glenn Robinson III ($5,200). Burks ranks second on the Warriors in usage rate this month and took a heavy 20 field goal attempts in the Warriors’ most recent game on Wednesday. Cauley-Stein could be positioned for a boost in rebounds against a Pelicans team that ranks as a below average rebounding team by the percentage of missed shots they grab.

The Pelicans also land in a strong fantasy spot against a Warriors team that has allowed the fifth most assists to opponents, ninth most points to opponents and rank as the sixth worst rebounding team by the percentage of missed shots they rebound. New Orleans’ top fantasy option is Brandon Ingram ($10,400). Ingram has had a breakout season with his new team, posting a strong 21.6 player efficiency rating, a sizable boost from a below average 13.4 player efficiency rating last season with the Lakers. Ingram has been excellent from deep, shooting 40% on 3s while taking about six 3s per game, both improvements from 33% on two 3-point attempts per game last season. Ingram has also boosted his rebounding, grabbing 10% of missed shots, a boost from 7% last season. Ingram will be in good position to score points, grab rebounds and dish out assists in this matchup.

Jrue Holiday ($10,200) has been the Pelicans’ top facilitator, creating 14 potential assists per game. Holiday also has taken 18 shots per game, only one behind Ingram’s team-high 19 shots per game, giving Holiday point and assist upside vs. a poor defensive team. Derrick Favors ($5,800) is still building his stamina after missing extended time due to a personal issue, but is a candidate to expand on his minutes in a good matchup on the glass. Favors has grabbed a team-high 19% of missed shots, easily the best rebounding mark on the Pelicans. Josh Hart ($7,000), JJ Redick ($6,400) and Lonzo Ball ($6,200) are also options.


THE OUTCOME

D’Angelo Russell’s ($14,400) heavy volume makes him a strong Captain’s Pick choice against a Pelicans team that allows a ton of points. Brandon Ingram ($15,600 CP) and Jrue Holiday ($15,300 CP) are also quality Captain’s Pick options in a good matchup.

The Pelicans have badly underperformed this season, but they have more talent than their 7-22 record indicates. Despite playing their third game in four nights, New Orleans should be able to handle the undermanned Warriors on the road.

Final score: Pelicans 115, Warriors 110

Set your lineups here: NBA Showdown $50K Pull Up Jumper [$10K to 1st]


Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is timfinn521) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/PA) or 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN).
Odds and lines subject to change.
21+. NJ/PA/IN only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See website for details.