All season long DraftKings users have been winning millions of dollars by playing in weekly fantasy football contests. This week DraftKings is offering a great opportunity to win a share of $100,000. All you have to do is draft the 9 NFL players you think will score the most fantasy points during the games this week. Draft 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex and 1 Defense while staying under the allotted $50,000 salary cap. The entry fee is only $2 or FREE with your first deposit (minimum deposit is only $5) and first place wins $10,000. Finish with one of the top 11,500 scores and get paid when the Monday Night Football game ends. Weekly fantasy football is the easiest way to add excitement to the NFL season.
DraftKings user JGENNARO29 won $1,000,000 in Week 13 with this lineup:
To help you get started, our experts have outlined their top 8 tips to becoming a winning daily fantasy sports player.
1) Don’t take too many risks.
“Games are all about taking risks. But if you take too many risks, you always lose.”
Daily fantasy football is indeed all about risk management. Taking risks isn’t inherently bad, but the key is to maintain a positive expected value.
If I were to give you 3-to-1 odds on the roll of a die, for example, that would be a risk that you wouldn’t want to take; with just a 1-in-6 chance of rolling a specific number, you’d have a negative expected value. If I were to give you 10-to-1 on your money, though, you should take that bet, even though the risk is exactly the same.
Don’t take too many risks, but don’t be afraid to embrace volatility when it’s appropriate.
2) Look for the shortcuts.
“Every game, and almost every life situation, has short cuts: ways you can get better without learning the entire literature of the game from beginning to end.”
My book “Daily Fantasy Football Pros Reveal Their Money-Making Secrets” was filled with interviews of daily fantasy’s best players, many of whom are DK Pros. One of the coolest parts of talking with those guys was learning different heuristics they employ to make sound decisions when creating their lineups.
I actually think there are a lot of reasons for players of all skill levels to use heuristics like “Always stack a quarterback and receiver in a GPP” or “Never start a running back and wide receiver on the same team,” but that’s especially true for new players; such heuristics are shortcuts that can be used to improve your odds of winning when you’re not yet sure when to side with the exception to the rule.
3) Play people better than you.
“You learn more from losing than winning. Losing is not failure. Losing gives you a treasure trove of insights into how you, personally, can get better.”
Play people better than you…but play them cheaply. Enter $1 and $2 50/50 games because they expose you to a whole bunch of lineups for a low cost. Study the lineups of the best players, but also analyze the losing lineups, too.
There’s not much to be gleaned from an individual lineup, but continue to assess different lineup types to see what they consistently have in common; how much more often do winning lineups place a certain position in the flex as compared to poor lineups, for example?
4) Luck favors the prepared.
“Whenever you feel like saying, ‘I was just unlucky,’ trust me when I say, ‘you’re probably an idiot.’ Analyze the reality. Don’t just try to make yourself feel better.
In chess there’s a saying, ‘Only the good players get lucky.’ This applies to every area of life. As Scott Adams (creator of Dilbert) said to me, ‘if you know you’re only going to succeed at 10% of the things you try, make sure you try 100 things.’
Daily fantasy sports is awesome because anything can happen in a single night (and truly anyone can win). Over the long run, though, there’s not really such a thing as luck; the prepared users win, and the unprepared lose. You can put yourself in a poor situation and win in the short-term, but that won’t continue to happen.
I think the Scott Adams quote “If you know you’re only going to succeed at 10% of the things you try, make sure you try 100 things” has a direct impact on tournament strategy. If you’re trying to build a bankroll and want quick growth with a big tournament cash, it makes sense to fire as many bullets as possible, i.e. play multiple lineups instead of using a single lineup and placing more of your cash on that one lineup. Five entries at $10 is superior to one at $50.
5) Master your psychology.
“View everything as an experiment. Every experiment has problems. As Peter Thiel says, ‘Get good at solving hard problems.’
When something doesn’t work out, see how you can make it 5% better the next time. There’s always a next time.”
Daily fantasy is unique in that the gap between the average user and a pro might not be as wide as you think. Lots of people know sports and some are really good at specific areas of the game, but it’s the collection of small edges that adds up to one big edge for the best players.
No single move is going to turn you from a loser into a winner; there’s no “secret” that the pros have found. It’s just about accumulating as many small edges as possible and getting incrementally better over the course of time.
6) Tewari Analysis
“Someone wrote to me the other day that they had made $50 million dollars when they were very young. Then very quickly, the person had lost $30 million and was feeling horrible.
Tewari analysis would say: ‘Well, what if you had simply gone from $0 to $20 million, rather than from $0 to $50 million and then down to $20 million?”
Last year, I subbed out a player at the last minute that ended up costing me $100,000. It felt pretty awful, and it actually affected my play for a brief period of time.
But the thing is…I actually won $1,500 that week. In any other week, I would be happy with that and have a positive mindset moving forward, but because I harped on what “could have been,” I got distracted.
If you play daily fantasy sports, you’re inevitably going to go through ups and downs. When you’re losing, it’s important to frame situations in the right way from a psychological perspective if you want to maintain a healthy (and profitable) mindset.
7) Play the cards in front of you.
“Too many people don’t have the right preparation. They haven’t tested their product. They haven’t studied the game they are in. But they play as if they are already on top.
Just play what is in front of you. Improve incrementally and be PATIENT. You will have your chance to win many times. But you will lose ALL of your chances if you waste them.”
I think this tip is pretty important in regards to bankroll management. There are a lot of users who have an edge that could potentially be exploited, but they don’t ever realize that edge because they become impatient. They might have a losing week or two and give up or get crazy with their bankroll.
If you feel like you can win on DraftKings, it’s important to stay in the game. Poker players sometimes throw away hands even when they think they’re a slight favorite to win if it significantly increases their risk of ruin, i.e. going “all-in.” In daily fantasy, you want as many opportunities to realize your edge as you can get, which means generally avoiding those “all-in” situations.
8) Maybe most important: THE THREAT IS STRONGER THAN THE EXECUTION.
“H. Ross Perot used to buy up shares of a big company (for instance, GM) and start shouting how poorly the company was run and that he could do a better job. He wasn’t really going to take over the company but many people thought he was because of his ‘threats’ and they would start buying up shares. Then he would sell his shares after they had run up significantly.”
Altucher’s quote about Ross Perot is directly applicable to daily fantasy sports, which is a form of a marketplace. Player salaries rise and fall based on performance, so your job is to determine when those salary changes are warranted and identify situations when a player’s cost isn’t representative of his fantasy outlook.
Just as Perot used inefficiencies in public psychology to profit, you too must identify marketplace inefficiencies to become a daily fantasy all-star.
Here is How to Win This Week:
1. Draft Your 9 Man NFL Roster Here
2. Pay your $2 entry fee or recieve a FREE entry with your first deposit (minimum deposit is only $5)
3. Finish in the top 11,500 places and get paid when the Monday Night Football game ends