Liverpool are the biggest favorite on the slate, but another match has a higher projected goal total. The question for the EPL $40K Through Ball Special [$10K to 1st] is if you should spend on the Reds or go with a slew of cheaper players in a match that could finish with more goals.
STUDSSadio Mane, Liverpool vs. Leicester City, $10,200 — Leicester have allowed the second-fewest shots in the league, but it makes sense to grab a piece of the biggest favorite on the slate. Mohamed Salah ($11,000) has better odds to score because of PKs, yet Mane has a similar, if not better, floor. I’d rather save money on someone who is averaging almost the same number of shots on target (1.22) and more shots assisted (2.08) per 90 minutes than Salah. Other Options — Mohamed Salah, Liverpool, $11,000; Teemu Pukki, Norwich City, $8,500; Gylfi Sigurdsson, Everton, $8,200
VALUESWesley, Aston Villa at Norwich City, $5,300 — This match has the highest projected goal total and Wesley is Villa’s starting forward. While he didn’t do anything last match, he had a shot on target in each of his prior starts and Norwich are allowing more than two goals per match. He’s hard to trust in cash games, but he’s worth a gamble if a few goals are scored between these teams as expected.
Other Options — Dwight McNeil, Burnley, $6,200; Chris Wood, Burnley, $5,600; Jordan Ayew, Crystal Palace, $5,200
STUDSEmiliano Buendia, Norwich City vs. Aston Villa, 7,600 — Speaking of the match with the highest over/under, Buendia is in a perfect spot to produce. In Norwich’s only match at home against a team in the bottom half of the table (Newcastle), he racked up 11 crosses and had a floor of 14.2 fantasy points. Villa have allowed the second-most crosses and corners in the league and that should lead to a floor of at least 10 points. Other Options — Jack Grealish, Aston Villa, $7,900; John McGinn, Aston Villa, $7,700; Manuel Lanzini, West Ham, $7,100
VALUESMarvelous Nakamba, Aston Villa at Norwich City, $3,500 — Nakamba remains cheap because he’s a defensive midfielder, but he assisted three shots last match and held a floor of six points in each of his past two starts. The upside isn’t there, but his floor should be safe as Norwich have allowed the most tackles won this season and that’s where Nakamba excels.
Other Options — John Fleck, Sheffield United, $4,600; Wilfred Ndidi, Leicester City, $3,700; John Lundstram, Sheffield United, $3,500
STUDSTrent Alexander-Arnold, Liverpool vs. Leicester City, $6,800 — You need at least one high-end defender for this slate, and while it isn’t the best matchup for Alexander-Arnold, that probably won’t matter. He’s hit 9.9 fantasy points in every start this season. While his assisted shots have gone down in recent matches, I’d rather trust him at home than Lucas Digne ($7,000) away. Other Options — Lucas Digne, Everton, $7,000; Andrew Robertson, Liverpool, $5,700; Frederic Guilbert, Aston Villa, $4,900
VALUESBen Mee, Burnley vs. Everton, $2,800 — This isn’t a great slate for value defenders, so if you want to go cheap in one spot, go to the bottom of the list. Mee could bust, but he’s hit four points in five of seven matches and that’s fine for the price because even if you spend $1,000 more on a defender, you can’t guarantee much more than that.
Other Options — Issa Diop, West Ham, $3,300; Tyrone Mings, Aston Villa, $3,000; Gary Cahill, Crystal Palace, $3,000
STUDSRoberto Jimenez, West Ham vs. Crystal Palace, $5,100 — Adrian ($5,800) has made three saves in his past three league starts, while Roberto made three saves off the bench last weekend and takes over for Lukasz Fabianski, who was averaging more than three saves per match. West Ham have allowed four goals in their past six matches, and even if Roberto can’t secure a clean sheet, saves will keep his points in the positive. Other Options — Adrian, Liverpool, $5,800; Ben Foster, Watford, $5,100; Jordan Pickford, Everton, $4,800
VALUESDean Henderson, Sheffield United at Watford, $4,400 — Henderson has allowed seven goals in seven matches while making an average of three saves. Watford have scored four goals from 30 shots on target. It’d be a surprise if Henderson wasn’t the most popular goalkeeper in cash games.
Other Options — Tom Heaton, Aston Villa, $4,600; Nick Pope, Burnley, $4,500; Vicente Guaita, Crystal Palace, $4,300
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