Tottenham are the biggest favorite on the slate, but they’ve been one of the harder clubs to trust this season. That being the case, the EPL $30K Saturday Chip Pass Special [$5K to 1st] likely will be decided by the other teams and the goal is to back the right ones.
STUDSDwight McNeil, Burnley vs. West Ham, $6,900 — None of the forwards on this slate have much of a floor, so you’re paying up to score a goal. McNeil doesn’t have the greatest floor, but he could finish with more points than any of the strikers because he’s averaging 6.24 crosses per 90 minutes. Playing at home, I’ll bet on Burnley to control the match against West Ham, who have lost three of their past four. Other Options — Jamie Vardy, Leicester City, $9,500; Son Heung-Min, Tottenham, $9,200; Richarlison, Everton, $8,800
VALUESNathan Redmond, Southampton vs. Everton, $4,600 — Redmond is cheap and has scored at least 7.1 fantasy points in each of his past three starts at home. He does a little bit of everything from taking shots and crosses to drawing fouls and making tackles, which is why his floor is fairly safe. Everton have lost their past four away in league play, and Redmond has a chance to benefit.
Other Options — Chris Wood, Burnley, $6,100; Ashley Barnes, Burnley, $5,400; Miguel Almiron, Newcastle, $5,000
STUDSJames Maddison, Leicester City vs. Arsenal, 9,900 — Maddison is almost a must in cash games with at least 17 fantasy points in each of his past five starts. Arsenal are fifth in the table, but they have a negative goal differential away and allow the third-most shots and sixth-most crosses in the league. Maddison usually has a floor of at least 10 points because of set pieces, and that could be the case again. Other Options — Ryan Fraser, Bournemouth, $8,500; Robert Snodgrass, West Ham, $7,700; Jonjo Shelvey, Newcastle, $5,900; James Ward-Prowse, Southampton, $5,700
VALUESAllan Saint-Maximin, Newcastle vs. Bournemouth, $5,300 — Saint-Maximin isn’t a full value play, but I think this is the spot in which he breaks through and makes the scoresheet. He had three shots on target last match and has at least 5.9 fantasy points in each of his past five appearances. Bournemouth are playing well defensively, but I think Saint-Maximin’s activity keeps him fantasy relevant.
Other Options — Wilfred Ndidi, Leicester City, $4,600; Isaac Hayden, Newcastle, $3,400; Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg, Southampton, $3,300
STUDSDiego Rico, Bournemouth at Newcastle, $5,800 — Ideally, you can spend up on Rico and Lucas Digne ($7,300) as their floors are better than most of the forwards. If you need to save cash, Rico provides a similar floor to Digne, having hit 9.2 fantasy points in every start. Rico is averaging 7.01 crosses and 3.38 interceptions per 90 minutes, and Newcastle conveniently have allowed the second-most crosses this season. Other Options — Lucas Digne, Everton, $7,300; Jetro Willems, Newcastle, $5,100; Enda Stevens, Sheffield United, $4,400
VALUESFederico Fernandez, Newcastle vs. Bournemouth, $3,200 — I got a bit lucky with the Fernandez goal last week after recommending him, but I’ll take it. This time, I’m banking on a clean sheet against Bournemouth, who have failed to score in their past three away matches in all competitions. In addition to making the scoresheet in both of his starts, Fernandez has won six tackles, which could help his floor.
Other Options — Toby Alderweireld, Tottenham, $3,300; James Tarkowski, Burnley, $3,000; John Egan, Sheffield United, $2,600
STUDSMartin Dubravka, Newcastle vs. Bournemouth, $4,800 — This isn’t a great slate to spend up at goalkeeper because every team is expected to allow at least one goal, Tottenham included. Dubravka has made 17 saves in his past four starts and there have been a total of two goals scores in Bournemouth’s past four matches, so a clean sheet isn’t out of the cards. Other Options — Paulo Gazzaniga, Tottenham, $5,600; Kasper Schmeichel, Leicester City, $5,200; Nick Pope, Burnley, $5,000
VALUESDean Henderson, Sheffield United at Tottenham, $3,900 — Henderson has finished in the positive in all but one match this season because of a combination of making a few saves and not allowing many goals. Tottenham have scored one goal or fewer in five of their past six league matches and while at home, it was only a few weeks ago they drew Watford 1-1.
Other Options — Aaron Ramsdale, Bournemouth, $4,700; Alex McCarthy, Southampton, $4,600; Roberto Jimenez, West Ham, $4,500
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