This Saturday is the opposite of last Saturday with Manchester City and Liverpool huge favorites, as well as Arsenal close behind. You can either spend it all on City players or make a cash lineup filled with better floors. Either way, you’ll need to find some gems to win the EPL $30K Counter Attack Special [$5K to 1st].
Sergio Aguero, Manchester City vs. Southampton, $11,000 — There are a lot of reasons to go with a cheaper player with a better floor, but it’s hard to ignore Aguero’s goal odds with more than a 70% chance of finding the back of the net. He braced against Southampton in their midweek Cup match, and I think as long as he starts, a minimum of five shots are on the table. I usually don’t like spending on the most expensive guy, but if Man City score at least three goals as expected, he’ll undoubtedly be involved in one of them.
Other Options — Mohamed Salah, Liverpool, $10,500; Nicolas Pepe, Arsenal, $9,500; Neal Maupay, Brighton, $7,200
VALUESDavid McGoldrick, Sheffield United vs. Burnley, $5,400 — Outside of the weird Arsenal match, McGoldrick has provided when in the starting XI, averaging 2.43 shots and 1.49 tackles won per 90 minutes. While he’s a candidate to be subbed early, his floor could be near the eight points he reached in a tougher spot in the last match. Plus, Burnley gave up four goals to Chelsea last weekend and have allowed the sixth-most shots in the league.
Other Options — Leandro Trossard, Brighton, $6,800; Dwight McNeil, Burnley, $6,800; Adama c, Wolverhampton, $6,100
John McGinn, Aston Villa vs. Liverpool, 5,500 — This isn’t a true stud play, but McGinn allows you to spend up on two forwards. If not, Kevin De Bruyne may be the only midfielder I’d pay up for and I don’t need to write about two expensive Man City players. While Aston Villa are large underdogs, I still think McGinn can have a floor near 10 fantasy points. He did that at Man City last weekend and Liverpool allows more shots and crosses than City. If you can get a good floor with a touch of upside at this price, it’s worth betting on in order to grab two high-end forwards.
Other Options — Kevin De Bruyne, Manchester City, $10,800; Emiliano Buendia, Norwich City, $7,100; John Fleck, Sheffield United, $5,600
VALUESAshley Westwood, Burnley at Sheffield United, $4,600 — Given the expensive options on this slate, it’s wise to find a cheap player or two who provide consistent value. Westwood has at least 7.6 fantasy points in five of his last six starts, averaging more than four crosses per match, and Sheffield United allow the third-most crosses and third-most corners in the league.
Other Options — Jonjo Shelvey, Newcastle, $5,100; John Lundstram, Sheffield United, $3,700; Marvelous Nakamba, Aston Villa, $3,300
Trent Alexander-Arnold, Liverpool at Aston Villa, $6,800 — Don’t overthink it. Alexander-Arnold will be the chalk and there’s nothing wrong with that. He’s almost guaranteed to hit 10 fantasy points, and in good situations, can have a floor above 20 points. That’s what this matchup presents as Villa are allowing the fourth-most crosses and tied for the most corners, which is where most of his value comes from.
Other Options — Andrew Robertson, Liverpool, $5,800; Joao Cancelo, Manchester City, $5,300; Benjamin Mendy, Manchester City, $4,300
VALUESFederico Fernandez, Newcastle at West Ham, $2,700 — With Fabian Schar likely out again, Fernandez should get another start. He probably won’t have another assist, but with one of the lower implied goal totals, the chance for a clean sheet is there, which would be a nice bonus at this price. You need to save money somewhere to get City players in your squad and that combats the downside of him not having much of a floor.
Other Options — John Egan, Sheffield United, $3,000; James Tarkowski, Burnley, $2,900; Tyrone Mings, Aston Villa, $2,500
Mat Ryan, Brighton vs. Norwich City, $5,500 — Ryan has made 26 saves in his last five starts and has decent odds to win and secure a clean sheet. Norwich City has also failed to score in their last four away trips. The odds are good that Ryan will either make a few saves and allow a goal or make fewer saves and keep a clean sheet.Other Options — Ederson, Manchester City, $5,900; Alisson, Liverpool, $5,800; Dean Henderson, Sheffield United, $5,200
Tim Krul, Norwich City at Brighton, $4,200 — Similar to Ryan, Krul has been one of the best in the league at making saves, averaging 4.63 per start. Brighton has been a hard team to project at home this season, but even if Krul allows a couple of goals, he should still finish in the positive due to saves.
Other Options — Nick Pope, Burnley, $4,400; Martin Dubravka, Newcastle, $4,300; Tom Heaton, Aston Villa, $3,800
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (username: rotozdroik) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.