Armando Marsal

Fantasy Writer

@Armando_fbguru

 

 

Quarterback

START: Aaron Rodgers ($8800) – Rodgers is averaging 21.6 fantasy points per game on Draft Kings. However, he’s averaging 25.44 fantasy points per game in Lambeau Field. He has thrown three touchdowns in each home game this season. Rodgers has thrown for 1,419 yards, 15 touchdowns and just one interception. This week’s matchup is favorable for him; he faces a Panthers defense that has surrendered 12 passing touchdowns this season. They are allowing 17.5 fantasy points per game and 252 passing yards per game. Rodgers is off to a great season thus far. He’s thrown for three or more touchdowns in four of six games this season and has a good history against the Panthers. In two career games against them, he’s thrown five touchdowns and just one pick. He was only started in 5.94% of the lineups in Week 6. If you’re looking into a high-level quarterback, he’s the best value. His floor is just as high as anyone else’s, and this week, his ceiling is higher than some of the other high-level quarterbacks.

I’d start him over: Andrew Luck $9700, Peyton Manning $9000, and Cam Newton $8200

SIT: Drew Brees ($8100) – Brees will be heading to Detroit to take on the Lions. Surprisingly, the Lions are ranked No. 1 against quarterbacks. They allow the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and have allowed just five passing touchdowns in six games. In fact they have more interceptions than touchdowns allowed. The Lions defense held Aaron Rodgers and Eli Manning both under 200 passing yards. Brees has also struggled this season. He has thrown a pick in all but one game, including three in Week 5. He’s failed to throw more than two touchdowns in any game and has a 9 to 6 touchdown to interception ratio. Brees is having a very un-Brees-like season, and it’s hard to think he’ll turn it around against the toughest pass defense. Not to mention, he’ll be without his go-to guy on offense, Jimmy Graham. I’d fade Brees in dailys this week because of both the matchup and the price.

I’d rather start: Jay Cutler $7900, Carson Palmer $7300, Tony Romo $7200.

START: Colin Kaepernick ($6500) – Kaepernick is coming off his best performance of the season last week. The Niners head to Denver to take on the Broncos in Week 7. Believe it or not, some of Kaepernick’s better games have been on the road this season. In fact, he’s thrown six touchdowns and zero interceptions in three road games. He averages 20.1 fantasy points per game on Draft Kings, but averages 22.92 on the road. The Broncos have allowed quarterbacks to throw multiple touchdowns in three of their five games. They have also allowed 17 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. One of the best things about Kaepernick is that he can be productive on the ground as well as in the air. That’s an incentive in dailys because of the scoring format. If he rushes a touchdown in, it’s worth six points, whereas, it’s only worth four points for passing touchdowns. These types of quarterbacks are good options at the right price. This is the cheapest he’s been all season and it’s a $700 discount from last week. I’d say this is a good investment.

I’d start him over: Andy Dalton $7100, Matthew Stafford $7000, and Eli Manning $6200.

SIT: Matt Ryan ($6500) – Last week’s matchup was one that Ryan should have been able to exploit if you look at the numbers, but he fell short. So much for being great at home. Last week, he had a disappointing 271 passing yards with one touchdown and one interception. This week, he heads to Baltimore to take on the Ravens who have been relatively good against the pass. In six games, the Ravens defense has allowed just six touchdowns. Of those six, only two of them were in games at Baltimore. Ryan has been very streaky this season. He’s had three games where he has thrown for three touchdowns, but has also has three games where he’s thrown for just one touchdown and at least one interception. His road games touchdown to interception ratio is 85 to 54. This season he’s thrown seven interceptions and seven have been in road games. His price is at an all-time low which could make it tempting for some. However, tread lightly as he’s known to disappoint when he plays outside the Georgia Dome.

I’d rather start: Russell Wilson $6800, Colin Kaepernick $6500, and Ben Roethlisberger $5700.

SNEAKY START: Brian Hoyer ($5600) – If you’re looking to take a flier on a cheap quarterback, you should consider Brian Hoyer. He hasn’t done anything special all season. He’s only thrown for more than one touchdown in one game this season. However, this week he has what will most likely be the best matchup of the season against the Jags. The Jaguars defense is one of the worst in the NFL. They allow 294 passing yards per game, 19 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, and have allowed 12 passing touchdowns this season. If you’re looking for a cheap contrarian with a great matchup, take a shot with him.

 

Running Back

START: DeMarco Murray ($9400) – If anyone is worth paying top dollar for, it’s DeMarco Murray. Last week he had a tough matchup at Seattle, but was able to run all over them. He has rushed for over 100 yards in every game this season and has also scored a rushing touchdown in all but one game. The Cowboys have leaned on Murray this entire season. He’s averaging 26.5 carries per game, so the volume is clearly there on a consistent basis. This week he faces a division rival, the Giants. Murray hasn’t had a great history against the Giants. He’s rushed for 328 yard on 59 carries and no touchdowns in four career games against them. With that said, Murray is playing at another level and it doesn’t appear anyone can slow him down. The Giants are giving up the sixth most fantasy points to opposing running backs and have surrendered six total touchdowns to backs this season. They have allowed a rushing touchdown in five of their six games. If you’re in the mood to splurge, and want as close to a sure thing as you can receive, pay the premium price for Murray.

I’d start him over: All backs

SIT: Marshawn Lynch ($7100) – Lynch is coming off a bad game against the Cowboys. This week he’s actually priced quite reasonably. However, when you look at some of the other backs in his price range you’ll find better value and better matchups. The Rams defense isn’t as good as it was last year, but they are not as bad against the run as some may think, at least statistically. The Rams have only allowed one touchdown to opposing running backs this season, and it was to the one and only DeMarco Murray. Besides him, no other back has been able to get into the end zone in any way against the Rams. Jamal Charles and Le’Veon Bell are cheaper than Lynch and have better matchups. If you think about it, they have the same floor and possibly higher ceilings than Lynch this week. Save a couple of hundred dollars, and spread it around your lineup by skipping on Lynch.

I’d rather start: Giovanni Bernard $7800, Jamal Charles $6700, and Le’Veon Bell $6600.

START: Justin Forsett ($5600) – Forsett is $500 cheaper this week than he was last, and I’m trying to figure out why. Since Week 1, Forsett hasn’t scored less than 10.5 fantasy points. He’s rushed for 408 yards, scored three touchdowns this season, and has 23 catches for 118 yards. This week’s matchup is running back friendly as he takes on the Falcons. Atlanta is the worst run defense in the NFL. They are giving up 27.5 fantasy points per game and have surrendered 11 touchdowns to opposing running backs. In addition, they give up 141.3 rushing yards per game. Forsett has 10.6 carries per game, and 3.8 receptions per game. Volume wise that’s not comforting, but he’s finding a way to get the job done. This is a great matchup for a solid back who’s at a great price, if you’re looking for a mid-level guy at a great value, you should consider Forsett.

I’d start him over: Pierre Thomas $5700, Fred Jackson $5500, Frank Gore $4800

SIT: Zac Stacy ($4300) – Stacy has struggled the last two weeks. Besides that, the main concern here is that the team is considering taking a running back by committee approach moving forward. Not to mention, the brutal matchup he has this week against the Seahawks. The only back that has rushed for over 100 yards against the Seahawks this season has been the NFL’s leading rusher DeMarco Murray. They have only allowed two rushing touchdowns this season and are allowing just 82.2 rushing yards per game. Stacy has rushed for 59 yards combined in the last two games and hasn’t rushed for more than 71 yards in a game. He’s scored just one touchdown this year and has scored less than 10 fantasy points twice in five games. Even at a discounted price, daily leaguers should consider other options with better matchups and higher ceilings, like some of the running backs that are listed below.

I’d rather start: Joique Bell $4800, Alfred Morris $4700, and Andre Williams $4400

SNEAKY START: Antone Smith ($3800) – Here’s a player that has outperformed his value every week. This is the highest his salary has been all season, yet it’s still a bargain. Smith has five touchdowns in six games. He has scored in all but one game this year and has scored in four consecutive games. He’s scored in big plays for the most part, but that’s a risk worth taking in a GPP at this price. In his last three games, Smith has scored 12.2 or more fantasy points in each game. If you’re looking for a cheap player with a lot of upside and that has actually produced points this season, he’s your guy.

Wide Receiver

START: Randal Cobb ($6700) – Cobb has scored in three consecutive games. In fact, he’s scored at least one touchdown in all but one game this season. Cobb has 29 catches for 331 yards and seven touchdowns in the first six games. This week he faces a receiver friendly defense in the Carolina Panthers. They are allowing the sixth most fantasy points per game to opposing receivers (24.2). The Panthers have allowed nine touchdowns to opposing receivers and are allowing 268.2 receiving yards per game. Cobb has three or more catches in every game this season and is averaging 18.3 fantasy points per game. The Packers have only played two games in Lambeau field and Cobb has three touchdowns in those two games. This is the cheapest Cobb has been since Week 4, and it smells like a bargain. Buy buy buy!

I’d start him over: T.Y. Hilton $7000, Mohamed Sanu $7000, and Brian Quick $6000

SIT: Mohamed Sanu ($7000) – Sanu put up ridiculous numbers in Week 6. He caught 10 passes for 120 yards and scored a touchdown. Why sit him, you may be asking. Two reasons, his price went up $1700 from what it was last week and the Colts defense is actually allowing the second fewest fantasy points per game to opposing receivers. The Colts have surrendered four touchdowns to receivers and are allowing 249.5 receiving yards per game. In three home games this year, the Colts have allowed just one touchdown by a receiver. Sanu has managed to score in each of his last two games, but the odds are not in his favor for that streak to continue. The inflation in his salary should send fantasy owners running with all the other value there is at this position. A high price and a matchup that isn’t appealing equals a player that daily leaguers should be fading.

 

I’d rather start: Alshon Jeffery $6600, Brandon Marshall $6300, and Emmanuel Sander $5900.

START: Michael Floyd ($5000) – After a promising first week, Floyd had two below average games in the following three weeks while Palmer was out nursing a shoulder injury. In Week 6, Palmer returned and Floyd finally scored his first touchdown of the season. The Raiders have been solid against receivers allowing just 17.8 fantasy points and four touchdowns through five games. However, last week they gave up two touchdowns to receivers against the Chargers. Bruce Arians runs a pass heavy offense and the aerial attack will likely be successful this week. Call me a sucker, but at this price, with the type of ceiling that Floyd has when Palmer is the quarterback, I’m buying almost every time. This is probably the cheapest you’ll see him for the rest of the season, unless Palmer gets hurt again.

I’d start him over: Andre Johnson $5200, James Jones $5100, and Pierre Garcon $5000.

SIT: Kelvin Benjamin ($5600) – Benjamin has missed practice this week after suffering a mild concussion. The Panthers are “hopeful” that he will play. Whether he does or not, it’s best to weigh out other options. His salary this week is flirting with his highest salary of the season which was $5900. He is set to head to Lambeau Field to take on the Packers defense. Green Bay is allowing 18.5 points per game to opposing receivers. However, at home, they’ve been really good. They have only allowed one touchdown by a receiver in two games. Another concern is that if Benjamin suits up and plays, there’s a chance that he can take a big hit and some of the symptoms come back. An injured receiver and a tough matchup at a mid-level price, is not the type of deal that most people would be happy making.

I’d rather start: Mike Wallace $5900, Terrence Williams $5200, and Michael Crabtree $4900.

SNEAKY START: Justin Hunter ($3700) – Hunter has finally come out of his shell in the last two weeks. Prior to Week 5, he caught nine passes for 138 yards and no touchdowns, but in the last two weeks he’s caught six passes for 176 yards and one touchdown. It was only a matter of time before Hunter got on the fantasy radar. The good thing is that his price is still dirt cheap. Hunter plays the Redskins defense that is giving up 22.8 fantasy points to opposing receivers. The downside to Hunter is his floor, it’s pretty low. However, at this price the risk is worth the possible reward.

 

Tight End

START: Julius Thomas ($6700) – Once again the most expensive tight end on the market is the one that should be in your lineups. Thomas is having a record breaking year thus far this season. In five games he’s scored nine touchdowns, that’s almost two per game, and has scored at least one touchdown in every game. He is averaging 21.7 fantasy points per game, but in Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Thomas averages 26.63 fantasy points per game. The Niners have been solid against tight ends defensively. However, they have allowed touchdowns to tight ends in back to back games. Thomas is matchup-proof, and if you want to pay anything over $5000 on a tight end, you’re better off spending more on Thomas.

I’d start him over: All tight ends.

SIT: Scott Chandler ($4000) – This is the most expensive that Chandler’s price has been all season, and it’s likely because of his Week 6 performance. In his last game, he caught six passes for 105 yards, which was his best performance of the season. Prior to last week, he had 13 catches for 137 yards in five games. Keep in mind that was against the Lions who haven’t been so great against tight ends. This week he faces the Vikings. Minnesota’s defense is allowing the eighth fewest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends and has allowed just one touchdown. In the first six weeks Chandlers salary averaged $3100, so this week at this price and with the matchup, it’s too expensive.

I’d rather start: Jordan Cameron $4600, Dwayne Allen $3700, and Larry Donnell $3500

SNEAKY START: Josh Hill ($3000) – With Jimmy Graham, Hill is expected to see more targets in this week’s game. Hill has scored two touchdowns in the last three weeks and has averaged 9.77 fantasy points in that time. As mentioned above, the Lions are not that great against tight ends. Tight ends average 7.3 fantasy points per game against the Lions defense. They have allowed three touchdowns to tight ends this season, and ironically all have been in Detroit, where this game will be played. The risk reward factor along with the favorable matchup makes this a very intriguing play this week.

 

I’ve provided you with low-risk, high-reward players for each position. If you’re drafting a lineup that’s top heavy in salaries and need to find some inexpensive players to plug in, then my sneaky starts can be useful.