WATCH: Debatable Draft — Nate Burleson sets his Thanksgiving table
The three-game Thanksgiving slate begins with the Bears at Lions starting at 12:30 p.m. ET. This game has changed dramatically with the news that Lions’ QB Jeff Driskel will be the backup due to a hamstring injury. The news will change the strategy immensely, so let’s get you ready!
Note: All salaries will be Flex prices unless noted as Captain’s Pick prices
FIVE BETTING TRENDS
— The Lions have lost seven of their last eight games.
— The Lions have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games.
— Each of the Bears’ last six games against NFC North opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
— Tarik Cohen has scored a touchdown in each of the Bears’ last six day games against NFC North opponents.
— Marvin Jones Jr. has scored at least one touchdown in three of the Lions’ last four games as underdogs.
Stats provided by DraftKings Sportsbook
Chicago BearsIn a matchup where he SHOULD have performed well, Mitch Trubisky ($9,800) scored 20.9 DKFP against the Giants with 278 passing yards, one passing touchdown and one rushing. It was his highest fantasy output of the season, although the bar wasn’t exactly set very high. Now he’ll face a poor Lions defense that could potentially be without Trey Flowers, who is arguably their best pass rusher. Trubisky is far from a safe fantasy option but this feels like a spot where he can be used, especially against a Lions secondary that’s allowed an average of 38.2 DKFP, 177 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns scored by opposing receivers. CB Rashaan Melvin has been ruled out, opening up even more for the Chicago receivers. While I’m not ready to captain Trubisky, he’s certainly roster-worthy.
On the ground presents another huge spot for the Bears, as the Lions are one of the worst run defenses in the league, allowing the second-most total fantasy points, an average of 102 rushing and 58 receiving yards per game. David Montgomery ($8,600), despite averaging just 5.7 DKFP over his last three games, is very captain worthy ($12,900 CP), especially if you’re a believer that the Bears, who are (-4) favorites, will win this game. You certainly won’t feel great slotting him there but it makes sense to captain him and pair him with the Blough and two receivers. Montgomery is always busy when it comes to red-zone work, so in a matchup like this, I like him a lot.
Allen Robinson ($10,200) and Anthony Miller ($5,000) headline the receivers to consider, both of whom are in great matchups. Robinson will likely shadow coverage from CB Darius Slay, who has allowed only a 51.1% catch rate on 47 targets, however, on those 24 receptions has been an average of 15 yards allowed. Miller will get the best matchup of the Chicago wideouts out of the slot against CB Justin Coleman. He’s been targeted against 81 times allowing a 64.2% catch rate for an average of 13 YPR and seven touchdowns allowed. Miller has drawn a very heavy target share as of late with 20 in his last two games. With Taylor Gabriel already ruled out, both of these guys should see a bump in their targets as well. Both of these guys can be used in the captain’s spot, with Miller making a very intriguing and low-owned option.
As for the rest of the Bears, Tarik Cohen ($8,400) has seen an average of 6.3 targets over the last three games. With the number of yards the Lions allow to running backs, he’s very much in play for me but wouldn’t Captain him. The Bears D/ST ($5,800) is a lock for me. Without Driskel, we have plenty to like in this matchup. Against a rookie making his debut against a very strong pass rush, the turnovers could come in bunches. I think we have a legitimate case to Captain the unit as well at a salary of $8,700.
Detroit LionsJeff Driskel ($9,000) will serve as the backup on Thursday. Undrafted QB David Blough ($6,200) will make the start instead. With this in mind, the Lions become extremely unreliable and tough to trust. None of them would be Captain worthy without Driskel and even with him, were a bit of a risky play against the Bears. Blough has only made two appearances during the preseason in which he completed 58% of his pass attempts for 271 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions.
The run game for the Lions has been messy ever since Kerryon Johnson (knee) went down. Bo Scarbrough ($7,400) looks as if he’s taken on the RB1 role with 153 yards on 32 carries, good for a 4.7 YPC average, over the last two games. He’s useful in builds for a Lions’ win, as this Chicago defense is one you can run on, allowing an average of 77 yards over the past three games. In builds for a Bears’ win, Scarbrough doesn’t offer anything in the passing game, as that will go to J.D. McKissic ($3,400). Ty Johnson ($3,200) is seeing minimal touches and is more of a dart throw in builds for a Bears win.
Marvin Jones ($8,000) and Kenny Golladay ($8,800) would be my preferred options at receiver. Danny Amendola ($6,600) draws CB Buster Skrine, who has been great in his slot coverage. Jones will see CB Prince Amukamara, who is allowing a 62.5% catch rate and 12.6 YPR. Golladay gets CB Kyle Fuller, who is allowing a 70% catch rate and 12.2 YPR. Fuller has also been scored on three times, which is helpful to know considering Golladay has a 24.4% target share in the red zone. Jones has a slight lead over Golladay in the red zone at 26.5%. With TJ Hockenson ($4,400) questionable with a shoulder injury, Logan Thomas ($1,600) and Jesse James ($200) could have the opportunity to step up. The Bears have been poor against tight ends, allowing an average of 8.2 DKFP, 60 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. Either TE would be a dart throw if Hockenson is out as neither has outproduced the other. If Hockenson is healthy, he’d be a low-owned option to consider.
Trubisky averages 2.2 sacks per game, making the Lions D/ST ($2,800) a salary saving option to consider. It should be noted, however, that they haven’t scored more than 8 DKFP in four straight games, and have been allowing a ton of scores of late.
We have a lot of uncertainty with Blough and the Detroit offense, making this game feeling like it’s a runaway spot for the Bears. Anything less would come as a shock, but it certainly is possible with the Bears involved.Final Score: Bears 27, Lions 13
Captain’s Picks:David Montgomery ($12,900), Bears D/ST ($8,700)
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