It’s Super Bowl week, and that means no shortage of different prop bets to wager on over at the DK Sportsbook. Here are some prop bets to consider from the Rams’ side of the action.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
TODD GURLEY: 63.5 RUSHING YARDS
TODD GURLEY: 63.5 RUSHING YARDS
Gurley’s going to be a theme here, as I think recency bias is really undervaluing him in this game. Gurley was terrible against the Saints, but what’s important is that he isn’t injured. C.J. Anderson was completely ineffective in that game himself, rushing for just 44 yards on 16 carries — and it was Gurley that the Rams trusted by the goal line for a touchdown. Gurley proved his health against Dallas, rushing 16 times for 115 yards and a touchdown. Gurley averaged 89.3 rushing yards in 14 regular season games, and that includes rushing for just 76 total yards in his final two games, when he actually was playing injured.
C.J. ANDERSON: 46.5 RUSHING YARDS
Sean McVay said following the victory in New Orleans that he plans to find a much larger role for Gurley in the Super Bowl. Anderson’s been very helpful, giving the RAms a capable body when Gurley was injured. That’s no longer the case. The Rams need to get the ball in the hands of their best player as much as they can against the Patriots. It should mean much less work for Anderson, who didn’t even reach this number on 16 carries in New Orleans.
PLAYER TO HAVE MOST RUSHING YARDS
TODD GURLEY (+225)
I love the way the Patriots are utilizing Sony Michel right now, and he deserves to be slightly favored to rush for more yardage. But Rex Burkhead still got 12 carries against the Chiefs, so he’s arguably just as much of a factor for the Patriots as Anderson is for the Rams. But Gurley is still the better running back, and the player that dominated the majority of the regular season. To get better than 2:1 odds on a player like Gurley leading the game in rushing yards is a steal.
TODD GURLEY: 12.5 RUSHING ATTEMPTS
OK, we’re almost done with the Gurley props — at least until later. This one is might be my favorite prop on the Rams’ side. Again, the recency bias is killing Gurley’s value — he’s not going to get four carries again as he did versus the Saints! Gurley took 16 carries in the Divisional Round victory over the Cowboys, and he averaged 18.3 carries during the regular season.
PLAYER TO SCORE MOST KICKING POINTS
GREG ZUERLEIN (+105)
Zuerlein is simply the better kicker of the two, and he has better range. Stephen Gostkowski has missed huge extra points and field goals in recent Super Bowls and AFC Championships that cost his team significantly. Maybe the Rams also come out tight and are unable to finish drives early, leading to an extra opportunity or two for kicks early in the game. Zuerlein has outscored Gostkowski 26-18 in the postseason, and he averaged 2.4 points per game more during the regular season. I’ll take the better kicker for plus money.
NDAMUKONG SUH: 0.5 SACKS
This number just really jumped out at me. Aaron Donald gets most of the hype, but Suh recorded 1.5 sacks in the NFC Championship on Drew Brees. Of course, Tom Brady hasn’t been sacked yet this postseason, but if anyone gets on in this game, having Suh at +220 seems like a nice buy.
TOTAL FIELD GOALS
OVER 1.5 (-125)
The Rams’ advantage in the kicking game is easy to overlook, but it’s real. In this prop, you don’t need to worry about how the Pats kicking game is, just getting two or more field goals from Zuerlein. In his 13 games this season (including playoffs) Zuerlein has made at least two field goals in all but one game — a Week 16 blowout victory over the Cardinals.
FIRST TEAM TO SCORE
Recent history isn’t on the side of this bet — the Patriots have scored opening drive touchdowns in both playoff games this season and were trailing the Eagles 9-3 after the first quarter of last year’s Super Bowl. But prior to that, the Patriots had failed to even score a first-quarter point in their last seven Super Bowls. This is more of a historical trend bet to take, and since you get close to even odds on the Rams, it’s worth considering.
TODD GURLEY (+1400)
Gurley was considered an MVP candidate for most of the season before clearly falling behind Patrick Mahomes and sitting out the last two games. Getting him at +1400 to win the MVP of a single game seems kind of silly. If there was an MVP award handed out at the end of each game the Rams played this season, Gurley would arguably have won a third of them.
AARON DONALD (+1400)
So we have to think a little bit outside the box. The formula to beating the Patriots in the Super Bowl has become obvious, it’s just difficult to do — pressure Tom Brady like crazy. Donald had over 20 sacks on the regular season, and should be the DPOY. If the Rams upset the Pats, it could come from a monster game led by the defensive line.
BRANDIN COOKS (+3300)
I’m not a fan of laying money on Jared Goff at +200, so if the passing game is going to thrive, I’d rather take a deep stab at a receiver. Cooks has the speed to make big plays in this game, and he comes in looking to burn his former team. This is an obvious long-shot pick, but getting 33:1 odds feels like some value.
Odds and lines subject to change. See website for actual odds.
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