For wide receivers, volume is necessary. That’s especially true in cash games, where we sacrifice depth of target and ceiling in exchange for a lot of chances.


These are the receivers I project to see the most targets in Week 14 (Sunday/Monday main slate only):

1. Antonio Brown at Bengals: 13 targets – Averaging 13.2 targets per game in the eight Ben Roethlisberger has been healthy for. That includes a floor of 11 and a ceiling of 23. His 16-game pace in outings with Big Ben is 152 catches (NFL record) for 2,150 yards (NFL record) and 14 TDs. We haven’t seen a safer cash-game play since Antonio Brown in 2014.

2. Odell Beckham at Dolphins: 12 targets – Miami has faced Matt Schaub, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tony Romo at less than 100 percent, Sam Bradford and Tyrod Taylor the last five weeks. So their raw pass-defense number s don’t appear that bad. But make no mistake, this is an awful unit that is No. 25 in pass-defense DVOA. Beckham has seen at least 11 targets in four straight games.

3. DeAndre Hopkins vs. Patriots: 12 targets – The Pats are very good at selling out to stop a team’s best offensive player and have the personnel at the corner position to do it. Hopkins is a tournament play only, even though volume will be there in this up-pace matchup.

4. Julio Jones at Panthers: 11 targets – Jones’ projection needs to be limited due to shadow coverage if NFL Defensive Player of the Year Josh Norman. Note that opposing QBs have a 39.2 passer rating (via PFF) when throwing at Norman, worst in the league by a massive margin. They also only complete 47.5 percent of passes in his coverage, fourth-best.

5. Alshon Jeffery vs. Redskins: 11 targets – Alshon has seen at least 11 targets in all six games he’s been healthy for this year. I’m excited to get back on Jeffery this week as others overreact to last week’s egg.

6. A.J. Green vs. Steelers: 11 targets – The Steelers quietly have a top-4 DVOA run defense that ranks sixth in YPC against (3.77), sixth in rush yards allowed per game (90.3) and T-2nd in rush TDs allowed (4). That will funnel more opportunity than usual to the pass game, where Green lurks. In the last five matchups with PIT, Green has seen 15, 18, 15, 13 and 17 targets.

7. Brandon Marshall vs. Titans: 11 targets – Marshall is going overlooked every week because people either go all the way up to the top-tier or take value in the mid/low. That’s been a mistake. Marshall has at least 10 targets in four straight games and is a red-zone dominator.

8. Danny Amendola at Texans: 10 targets – When playing the Wes Welker/Julian Edelman role in the Patriots offense, volume is not the question. Red-zone opportunity and yardage is, but Amendola’s $5200 price doesn’t reflect his chance for 8-10 catches.

9. Jarvis Landry vs. Giants: 9 targets – Landry laid an egg last week because Ryan Tannehill was only forced to throw 19 times in his matchup with Matt Schaub. That won’t be an option against a Giants offense that will put pressure on Tannehill to score the football. Landry has the best matchup of all the Dolphins’ receivers as Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Prince Amukamura are outside corners.

10. Calvin Johnson at Rams: 9 targets – Expect a slow-paced game in which the Rams try desperately to establish Todd Gurley. Johnson has seen under 10 targets in six of his last eight games.


Figuring out the top-end guys (above) is relatively easy. The low-end wideouts are much harder – and more valuable. Each week this season, I’m going to discuss wide receivers under $5000 who I project for at least five targets.

Note: The Following projections are based on the Main Slate Sunday/Monday games only.

1. Vincent Jackson vs. Saints, $4500

An easy way to get exposure to Saints atrocious pass defense this week is to roster V-Jax. There’s always downside in a player that has an aDOT (average depth of target) of 14.1 yards and is only averaging 5.9 targets per game on the year. But with Delvin Breaux possibly locking onto Mike Evans and the Saints’ overall defensive ineptitude, this is the spot for Jackson.

Projection: Seven targets

2. DeVante Parker vs. Giants, $4000

Parker’s matchup isn’t as good as the one for Jarvis Landry, as described above. But the first-round rookie predictably broke out last week, securing a 3-63-1 line even though Ryan Tannehill only threw the ball 19 times. Again, expect at least 30 pass attempts for Tannehill this week, meaning Parker’s target projection can be elevated significantly as well.

Projection: Seven targets

3. Donte Moncrief at Jaguars, $4600

The Jags have a very good run defense. They are third in YPC against and ninth in DVOA. I don’t see any way the Colts will get production on the ground, meaning they’ll be forced to take to the air – much like the Titans did last week. That means a nice projection for Donte Moncrief, who no one will be on after he only saw one target against the Steelers last week. He’s a very interesting tournament play.

Projection: Eight targets

4. Golden Tate at Rams, $4500

I’m not too excited about this DET/STL game, as I expect a slow-paced grinder as noted above. But we can’t ignore Tate’s uptick in usage lately, as he’s seen at last eight targets in three straight games and is averaging 9.6 during that span. Of course, we need to realize the ceiling is capped, even against the Rams’ leaky secondary. Tate hasn’t been over 63 yards since Week 5 and has two touchdowns all year.

Projection: Seven targets

5. Doug Baldwin at Ravens, $4500

Baldwin has seen at least six targets in five straight games and has at least five catches in four straight. He’s somehow turned that into two 100-yard games and six touchdowns despite no history of being a touchdown-scorer or big-play producer. But the Ravens are far easier to attack through the air than the ground and Baldwin’s $4000 tag provides much-needed savings this week. He’s in play in all formats even though we’re chasing points.

Projection: Six targets

6. Anquan Boldin at Browns, $4000

We know Anquan Boldin is going to see a bunch of targets. He’s averaging 8.4 per game on the season and is up at 10.3 in three games with Blaine Gabbert. It’s just hard to get too excited about an offense that has such a low touchdown projection. Still, Boldin is an interesting pivot option off Baldwin’s likely high ownership.

Projection: Eight targets

7. Marvin Jones vs. Steelers, $4200

I expect a pass-heavy gameplan out of the Bengals, as noted in the A.J. Green section above. So as he does most weeks, Marvin has a shot at a big day. This is a touchdown-scorer that plays on 83.4 percent of the snaps and has at least five targets in eight straight games. The eruption is coming at some point for Jones, it’s just really difficult to predict when.

Projection: Six targets

Honorable mention: Davante Adams (six targets), Dorial Green-Beckham (five targets), Nate Washington (six targets), Cecil Shorts (seven targets), Tyler Lockett (five targets), Brian Hartline (seven targets), Ted Ginn (five targets), Kamar Aiken (eight targets), Stevie Johnson (eight targets if healthy), Brandon LaFell (seven targets), DeSean Jackson (seven targets)