Identifying wide receiver targets by grouping the WR options for Week 11 based on matchups, recent production and more.
Looking for a different position? Check out the rest of the positional targets:
Cream of the Crop
Danny Amendola, New England (vs BUF) – $4000
I actually went back and forth on whether or not I wanted Amendola or Brandon LaFell as my top value. I do think there’s a chance Amendola sees a decent number of Julian Edelman’s missing targets, but then the rest are spread around to other players. However, he did see 11 targets on Sunday, so that’s enough for me to jump on him at $4000 over LaFell at $300 more.
Brandon LaFell, New England (vs BUF) – $4300
Like I said, this was probably a closer decision for me than most. I do much prefer LaFell in tournaments because of probable lower ownership and a much higher probability of scoring. It is worth noting the Bills’ defense is better against the pass than the run, so there’s a chance the Pats come out and try to run LeGarrette Blount all over the place.
Calvin Johnson, Detroit (vs OAK) – $7200
Johnson is $2100 cheaper than Julio Jones in a better matchup. The Raiders have allowed 2.2 DraftKings points per game above expected to opposing receivers over the past 12 months. I like Stafford to Megatron a lot this week, although I don’t think it will be that uncommon due to the pricing.
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay (at PHI) – $7300
The Eagles have the worst defense against opposing receivers over the past year. They also increase the number of snaps for both teams in their games, which can lead to quality fantasy production even at average efficiency. I don’t like that Tampa Bay is projected at just 20 points, but everything should run through Evans in the passing game.
Middle of the Pack
Michael Floyd, Arizona (vs CIN) – $3800
The Bengals have one of the top defenses against the past, but I still like Floyd at this price. Carson Palmer is in a similar situation at just $6700, so I do like the idea of pairing the two together in tournaments. I don’t think I’d use Floyd in cash games, but I do like that he’s seen at least eight targets in three of the past four games.
Allen Robinson, Jacksonville (vs TEN) – $7000
Robinson has exceeded his salary-based implied points by 5.0 points per game this season. He’s a potentially elite talent who people are treating as a second-tier player, and his workload makes him incredibly safe. He hasn’t seen fewer than nine targets in a game since Week 1.
Eric Decker, NY Jets (at HOU) – $5800
Decker hasn’t managed fewer than 14 DraftKings points since the first game of the season. He has six catches in each of the past four games, and one touchdown in three straight contests. I like him in both cash games and GPPs because he’s safe and has proven scoring ability. I do think the upside is somewhat capped because he’s not a No. 1 option in the offense, but it’s great enough that I’m comfortable with him in all formats.
Michael Crabtree, Oakland (at DET) – $6000
Cooper or Crabtree? Crabtree or Cooper? I’m giving a slight edge to Crabtree because I think he’s a better bet to see a higher quality of targets. Normally we want the receivers who will see the most opportunities to make plays, but we know defenses focus their attention on Cooper over Crabtree. I’d rather have eight high-quality targets than 10 mediocre ones. Plus, it isn’t like Crabtree is a slouch.
Rest of the Field
Amari Cooper, Oakland (at DET) – $6800
Since Cooper’s second 100-yard game of the year in Week 3, he has just one other game with 100 yards and one game with more than five catches. There’s still upside here, especially since Detroit allows 2.1 points per game above expected to opposing receivers.
Robert Woods, Buffalo (at NE) – $3400
Who would you try to take out of the Bills’ offense? Even though he’s been up-and-down, that player for me would still be Sammy Watkins. If the Pats are thinking the same, Woods should see a bunch of late garbage-time targets.
DeAndre Hopkins, Houston (vs NYJ) – $8800
This is a strictly GPP play, but Hopkins should see low ownership given the matchup and cost. I’ll take a few chances on him just given how many targets he sees in every matchup. Plus, Revis is still banged up.
Dez Bryant, Dallas (at MIA) – $7700
Only two defenses in the NFL have allowed more points above expectation to receivers than Miami—Philly and Baltimore. I’m not totally in love with a Romo-to-Bryant stack because of how methodically the Cowboys run their offense, but I do like the idea of using Bryant alone in GPPs at a price that’s just way too low relative to his skill set and matchup.
Jonathan Bales is the author of the Fantasy Sports for Smart People book series, and most recently Fantasy Football for Smart People: How to Win at Daily Fantasy Sports.
Follow him @BalesFootball.