WATCH: VALUE ALERT – KYLE RUDOLPH
Everyone knows the high-priced stars that they’d love to load their lineups with, but you’ll need low-priced value plays to make it all work. Let’s look at who that might be for Week 9.
Values here are $5.5K and below for QBs, less than $5K for RB/WR, less than $4K for TE and less than $3K for DEF. Contact me with any questions on Twitter @JasonWalkerDFS.
Case Keenum ($5,000) – I’ll wait until you stop laughing, but the Carolina Panthers are soooo bad against the pass, and they keep getting worse. They are down to the 27th-ranked pass defense efficiency by Football Outsiders, and the Rams have a game script in front of them that will encourage the pass.
Joe Flacco ($5,500) – Big Ben will be back this week, we think, and that makes this a possible scenario that sees the Ravens having to keep up with the Steelers rather than slogging it out with them. The Ravens pass protection is top 10 and the Steelers pass rush dead last, so Flacco can dial up passes to Mike Wallace and Dennis Pitta with relative ease.
Sam Bradford ($5,000) – Would rather raise my limit to $5,600, where Colin Kaepernick and Ryan Tannehill are in much better spots. Alas, here we are with Mr. Bradford, whose only saving grace is that he’s facing the Lions. Detroit continues to be ranked dead last in pass defense efficiency, and since the Vikings can’t run block, there’s value in Bradford in this matchup.
Charcandrick West ($4,400) – Spencer Ware, as of this writing, had still not practiced, so it looks like it’s all West this week for the Chiefs. In addition to Ware’s concussion, Jamaal Charles was placed on the injured reserve, leaving West as the only running back listed on the depth chart until the Chiefs signed Bishop Sankey, who can’t possibly be ready to contribute this week. West will be Devontae Booker in Week 8 like chalk, and against Jacksonville, which is 27th in the league in run defense efficiency, he’s the chalk for good reason.
Darren Sproles ($3,900) – Suddenly, the only running back trusted by Philadelphia is Sproles, who is steadily getting 20 touches, almost unheard of in Sproles’ career. At $4K and getting a full point per reception, I think Sproles will be a solid cash game play, even against the stout New York Giants defense.
Latavius Murray ($4,000) – Murray is getting the meaningful running back touches for the Raiders, who get a Denver team in Oakland that is much less effective against the run than it is against the pass.
Mark Ingram ($4,700) – Message delivered and received by Ingram, who admitted his own fault in fumbling. Whoever gets the first crack at the 49ers and their defensive line, which is ranked 30th in adjusted line yards, is likely in for a nice day. I think it’s Ingram, who the coaching staff will try to get back on track and prove his mea culpa will be followed by results.
Kenny Britt ($4,400) – As described in the Keenum write-up above (yup, that did actually happen), Britt has the best of the bunch in terms of individual matchups and showed, a few weeks ago when Tavon Austin was chalk, that he is the most reliable receiver there.
Corey Coleman ($4,500) – Coleman is back and should be ready to immediately contribute on the field. I like this a lot more if Josh McCown is at QB, but the value on a receiver that had 173 yards, two TDs and about 20 DKPPG in his first two weeks in the league, in a game where the Browns will have to throw a lot, is a solid play no matter who is at QB in my opinion.
Dorial Green-Beckham ($3,000) – I believe the Eagles will have to play a little catch up against the Giants this week, so Green-Beckham, who had nine targets in Week 8, should be firmly in the mix for catches and, at the min. price he is, should make value rather quickly.
Seth Roberts ($3,000) – Still targeted in the red zone and still min. salaried despite 22 targets in three weeks. He’s as targeted as Michael Crabtree in the red zone, too, scoring last week for his efforts.
Kenny Stills ($3,900) – Big-play receiver against a defense that gives up big plays. The Dolphins haven’t done much the last couple of times out because Jay Ajayi has been other-worldly with back-to-back 200 yard games. Because the Jets are so tough against the run and dare teams to beat them passing, Tannehill to Stills is a real thing.
Kyle Rudolph ($4,000) – Rudolph is very modestly priced for his importance to his role in the offense. Rudolph has 38 targets his last five games and 24 catches, providing a solid floor on which to depend on some tight end points. Also, the Lions are 27th against the tight end this season.
Julius Thomas ($3,200) – Thomas is usually overpriced relative to his price and reputation. But at $3.2K and in a pass game script, Thomas can quickly get to value here with his 17 targets the last three weeks and pair of late game touchdowns when Bortles is playing against softer defenses.
Antonio Gates ($3,000) – Gates has re-emerged with games of nine and 10 targets. He turned those nine targets last week to 13.3 DK points and the 47-point game total points to the likelihood he’ll be able to do more.
Green Bay Packers ($2,700) – The Colts are the worst offensive line in pass protection, per Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate measure. Meanwhile the Packers have the fourth-ranked pass rush. I expect they’ll be able to rack up sacks and possibly create turnovers because of it.
New Orleans Saints ($2,300) – I understand, the Saints haven’t been great defensively this year, only creating 9 total takeaways. However, Colin Kaepernick will only be making his third start, he takes some sacks, and there can be a tendency for turnover.
Editor’s Note: The paragraph above has been corrected, as it previously listed the Detroit Lions playing the 49ers. However, the Lions play the Minnesota Vikings this week, not the 49ers.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.