Everyone knows the high priced stars that they’d love to load their lineups with, but you’ll need low-priced value plays to make it all work. Let’s look at who that might be for Week 8.
First, let’s see what did and didn’t work in Week 7.
THINGS THAT WORKED IN WEEK 7:
1) Brian Hoyer – 21.92 – Not bad considering it was mostly to Nate Washington)
2) Lamar Miller – 41.6 – Yeah, baby, the Lamar-a-thon continues!
3) Darren McFadden 27.2 – 9X salary for DMC? It didn’t work out how I thought it would, but if you rostered him, you had no complaints.
4) Robert Woods – 23.4 – Not even EJ Manuel could deter him given the responsibility of being the #1 receiver for the Bills offense.
5) Rams DST – 25.0 – I said they were my fave against the Browns and just about everybody felt the same way. We’re all winners!
THINGS THAT DIDN’T WORK IN WEEK 7:
1) One QB most certainly did not (Mettenberger, 9.48)
2) Justin Hunter – 3.7 – Never. Again.
3) Willie Snead – 5.5 – Back to back stinker weeks wouldn’t deter me – game script unexpectedly reversed last week as the Saints went up 20-0. Snead still played over 85% of their snaps.
4) Mike Wallace – 7.6 – As of Thursday it was still unknown whether Stephen Diggs would start…he did and he’s dominant. Too bad, Mr. Wallace.
5) Charles Clay – 5.6 – Woods may not have been deterred by Manuel, but Clay was.
Anyway, on to Week Eight while I wish that Lamar Miller was playing on Sunday. Contact me @JasonWalker_72 with any other value questions through the rest of Week 8. Good luck!
Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,200) – Oakland is below average in pass coverage and pass rush and the Jets are #1 is pass protection, according to Football Outsiders. When you give a veteran passer time to throw and targets like Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker to throw to, he can take advantage. Both Marshall and Decker have plus matchups and Fitzpatrick has made value every week since Week 2, including the last two weeks against Washington (26.22) and New England (21.7).
Brian Hoyer ($5,300) – I know that volume doesn’t guarantee fantasy goodness, but extreme volume like the pass attempts that Hoyer is going to have to engage in again with Arian Foster out is convincing me. Plus, Hoyer’s last three games have yielded 23.88, 24.22 and 21.92 and both DeAndre Hopkins and Nate Washington have plus matchups. Tennessee has been weak against the run and solid against the pass, but the Texans are a solid 11th in pass protection, which only helps those plus matchups with their receivers.
Jay Cutler ($5,200) – Reaching a little bit here for a third passer, but Cutler has seen his price drop over $1,500 and has shown his value the last three weeks with an above average matchup against the Vikings. With Chicago struggling defensively, it puts Cutler and the offense in catchup mode. With that, Alshon Jeffery has the #1 matchup of the week against Xavier Rhodes.
Lamar Miller ($4,700) – If you haven’t been part of the Lamar-a-thon the last two weeks, I’m sorry, because it’s been loads of fun. This week isn’t as good of a matchup, though New England is 21st against the run, because game script puts the Dolphins trailing and in catchup mode which, previous to the last two weeks, has meant dismissing the contributions of Miller and putting it all on Ryan Tannehill. It remains to be seen how the new administration handles it, but for now, because the price is so good and Miller has been so money, he can’t be ignored or faded.
Chris Johnson ($4,600) – I had Johnson as a one of my Week 2 Value Plays when he was a mere 3.8K. Well, he’s actually not that much higher priced and all he’s done is shake my hesitancy of rostering him with performances in solid matchups. These include solid games against Detroit, San Francisco and last week against Baltimore. This week, it doesn’t get any more choice that rushing against the Browns, who are dead last against the run.
Jonathan Stewart ($4,100) – Stewart banged out another solid game and then watched as Mike Tolbert and Cam Newton scored TDs. But you don’t get to wear the shocked face because that the reality of the situation in Carolina. So what you are left with is a solid 15-20 carry back who isn’t left out of the passing downs and a game script that calls for the Panthers, at home, leading with a 26.8 team total. Solid.
Darren McFadden ($3,800) – As I said in the “What Worked” prologue, it didn’t happen like I thought, but McFadden dominated the Cowboys snap count, getting over 80 percent of the snap work and making the most of it. He’s still, at the very least, their pass down back so while their matchup is not-so-good against the Seahawks, he’ll get the checkdowns and the like, making getting to 12 DK points a likelihood.
Stefon Diggs ($4,800) – This time last week we weren’t sure whether Charles Johnson, now healthy, would supplant young Mr. Diggs in the starting lineup. Now, I’m not sure he’s not the Vikings #1 guy. After all, Diggs did outsnap even Mike Wallace 60-56 and made the most of it, registering his second straight 20+ DK point game. This week, the good matchups continue as he gets the Bears and, specifically, a plus matchup against Tracy Porter. Don’t be scurrred.
Nate Washington ($3,600) – With Cecil Shorts’ availability in question against this week, time to head back to Nate, who scored some late garbage-time TD goodness not once, but twice. As mentioned in the Hoyer section, both Nate and Hopkins have plus matchups, and while I expect Hopkins to return to his usual high 20’s scoring, there should be enough for Washington to make value with the amount of targets Hoyer is going to have this week.
Marvin Jones ($4,200) – Bye weeks make for interesting value plays because out-of-sight, out-of-mind. But you should remember that Jones had a great week before their bye and has a good matchup against the Steelers and Antwon Blake. The game is a 48 point, pick em affair on the road, which sounds like there should be plenty of fun and gun for Jones to absorb.
Stevie Johnson ($3,200) – This is predicated on the lack of availability of Antonio Gates, because Johnson works the same part of the field as the future HOF tight end. Johnson didn’t kill it last week, but still had eight targets. The Chargers can’t run the ball, so Rivers has been in throw-throw-throw your boat mode, which explains the inflated target rates. As long as Gates is out, Johnson should be able to get similar action against the Ravens, and easily make the 10 DK points he needs for value and beyond.
Danny Amendola ($3,600) – Ok, I’m going to dip my toes back into the New England not-Gronk, not-Edelman, wide receiver game. Amendola has posted value numbers in three of the last four weeks and has a good matchup against Brice McCain of the Dolphins. Sure, game script indicates New England leading, but that hasn’t slowed Tom Brady down and it won’t this week.
LaDarius Green ($3,000) – Same as Stevie, heavily dependent on Gates not playing, Green soaked up some of that goodness last week, including nine targets, a touchdown and a pair of two-point conversion plays. The Chargers will be chucking again at Baltimore, so Green at 3K, with no Gates, is firmly in play.
Crockett Gillmore ($2,500) – Against those Chargers, who are 30th in defensive efficiency against the tight end position, Gillmore makes a good play. At 2.5K, he doesn’t need much, and averaging over five targets a game (including six and seven the last two weeks since returning healthy), he’ll get value easily, especially with his plus matchup at home against San Diego, with a 50 point game total.
Larry Donnell ($3,300) – His price is elevated from when I typically put him on here, but I couldn’t ignore his matchup against the Saints, who are dead last in efficiency in covering the tight end. The game total is a healthy 49 and the Giants are forecasted to be playing catchup.
New Orleans Saints ($2,000) – Skimming the bottom for defense has been a successful strategy and it doesn’t get any lower than where the Saints are priced this week. NEw Orleans is at home and favored to win, which puts their defense in position to take advantage of the occasional Eli Manning mistake.
Tennessee Titans ($2,500) – If you don’t believe in Hoyer, or really even if you do, you’ll have the Titans, ahead at home, with a top ten pass rush and top ten in pass coverage, at a good price.