WATCH: VALUE ALERT – ZACH ERTZ
Everyone knows the high priced stars that they’d love to load their lineups with, but you’ll need low-priced value plays to make it all work. Let’s look at who that might be for Week 5.
Values here are $5.5K and below for QBs, under $5K for RB/WR, under $4K for TE and under $3K for DEF. Contact me with any questions on Twitter @JasonWalker_72.
Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,100) – It is all here, the 48.5 point total, the game script (Jets expected to lose) and a good matchup against a defense with the worst pass rush in the league against a Jets’ pass protection that ranks third. There is recency bias due to the interception party Fitz has been hosting, but he’s faced the second and eighth best pass defenses those two weeks and has a considerably easier path this week.
Trevor Siemian ($5,200) – Atlanta has the third worst pass rush and third worst pass coverage as well. The Broncos are expected to score 26.3 points this week and both Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas have positive matchups this week, per Pro Football Focus.
Brian Hoyer ($5,500) – Hoyer has made 4x value in each of the last two weeks, including last week in the slog of Chicago against the Lions. The game score is a healthy 47.5 and the Bears expected to lose, so Hoyer will likely have to return to the 65% pass play percentage they have for the season against the Colts’ 29th ranked pass defense.
Jerick McKinnon ($4,000) – McKinnon had a strong game in Week 4, running 18 times for 85 yards and a score. Houston has a 30th ranked run defense and is especially bad on the outside, exactly where the Vikings have had the most success in the run. In a home game where McKinnon and the Vikings are expected to win, I think he can turn in another nice performance.
Jalen Richard ($3,300) – There are many who are going to flock to DeAndre Washington ($3,400) because he is the presumed starter, but Richard has actually outsnapped, outtargeted and out redzoned Washington this season and has also been the more efficient runner, per Football Outsiders. You can get Richard likely lower-owned and will have and get as much goodness or more.
Terrance West ($4,800) – Like McKinnon, West took advantage of the opportunity given and ran for 113 yards and a touchdown against the Raiders last week. Washington, the Ravens’ opponent this week, is the second worst run defense in the league, per Football Outsiders Adjusted Line Yards metric, just ahead of the Raiders.
Duke Johnson ($4,100) – Duke has the same amount of snaps this season as teammate Isaiah Crowell, and has the second most targets per game in the NFL among running backs (6.2). The game script against the Patriots will call for passing, and that will line up better with Duke than Crowell in my opinion and give him the chance to soar past 12 DK points this week.
Eddie Royal ($4,200) – The Bears head to Indianapolis, who are still a bottom five pass defense, and Royal has only three fewer targets than teammate Alshon Jeffery already this season. With Kevin White out with a fibula injury, Royal will look replicate his 7 catch, 111 yard performance from last Sunday.
Quincy Enunwa ($4,600) – Another injury step-up, though Enunwa was regularly targeted before Eric Decker was injured. Decker is expected to miss another game, and Enunwa has a very positive matchup against Sean Davis (PIT) this week in a game script, as discussed with Fitzpatrick above, that the Jets will likely have to throw.
Cole Beasley ($4,300) – Somewhat of a post-hype play here after last week, Beasley has the better matchup than last week’s Dez-absent hero Brice Butler. Beasley should help the Cowboys keep the Bengals offense off the field.
Sammie Coates ($3,600) – Coates had eight targets last week for six catches for 79 yards and has a plus matchup against Marcus Williams of the Jets this week. The New York Jets have a tremendous run defense, which could force a considerable amount of passes from Ben Roethlisberger this week.
Anquan Boldin ($4,000) – More of a cash game play here, Boldin has a slightly positive matchup against the Eagles, which is rare against such a strong defense. The Lions are going to throw, as they are the eight highest pass play percentage in the league and are likely to be trailing here. Boldin has averaged seven targets per game the last two weeks.
Zach Ertz ($3,500) – Ertz returns to play a team that is dead last against the pass and that includes defending the tight end position. Ertz has seven targets the first week with Carson Wentz.
Jesse James ($2,900) – The Jets force you to pass with their excellent run defense, and it leaves the middle of the field open to targets like James, who did score last week. The Jets have the 25th ranked TE defense.
Zach Miller ($3,600) – The Bears will pass and Miller should return to the high target volume he saw in Week 3 rather than the reduced load last week with the Bears winning and the field being in such rough shape.
Philadelphia Eagles ($2,900) – The Eagles are expected to win, have a tremendous pass rush and the Lions pass the eighth most in the league. That’s a strong combination that favors defensive scoring.
Miami Dolphins ($2,900) – No team has added more value to defensive scoring on DraftKings than the Tennessee Titans. The pass protection has been good, so this is all on Marcus Mariota. He’s already racked up 5 interceptions and 2 fumbles lost through 4 games this year, and I expect a turnover or two again this week.
Jason Walker and Pat Mayo are promoters at DraftKings and are also avid fans and users (usernames: jaywalker72 and ThePME) and may sometimes play on their personal accounts in the games that they offer advice on. Although they have expressed their personal views on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and they may also deploy different players and strategies than what they recommend above.