VALUE PLAY: JASON WITTEN
Everyone knows the high-priced stars that they’d love to load their lineups with, but you’ll need low-priced value plays to make it all work. Let’s look at who that might be for Week 14.
Values are $5.5K and below for QBs, less than $5K for RB/WR, less than $4K for TE and less than $3K for DEF. Contact me with any questions on Twitter @JasonWalkerDFS.
Carson Wentz – PHI vs. WAS – $5,100 – The Eagles have had the second highest pass play percentage over the last three weeks, at an incredible 70%. Wentz faces a Washington defense that has ranked in the bottom ten this season against both outside and slot receivers.
Tyrod Taylor – BUF vs. PIT – $5,400 – While the Bills’ pass protection has gotten considerably worse while the Steelers pass rush has improved, this does not affect Tyrod as much as one would think due to his escapability and ability to create plays with his running. A non-divisional game at home in December is a good place to look for value, and Taylor has delivered 20+ DraftKings fantasy point (DKFP) games in four of his last seven games.
Eli Manning – NYG vs. DAL – $5,500 – All three of Manning’s 20 DKFP games have come at home, and all three of his massive duds have been on the road. He faces a Cowboys’ pass defense that is ranked 27th in the league, and the game total is 47.5.
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Rob Kelley – WAS at PHI – $4,200 – The Eagles are tough against the run, but Washington is third in run blocking this season. Since the Eagles have had to throw more recently, they have given up the sixth most rushing attempts per game over the last three weeks.
Frank Gore – IND vs. HOU – $4,800 – Gore will be running at home with the eighth best run blocking offensive line, and the Colts are favored by 5.5 points. He should continue to be a cash game play with his 18-22 touches per game.
Carlos Hyde – SF vs. NYJ – $4,900 – In almost any scenario, Hyde gets his carries- including 20 last week in Chicago. Back at home against the turnover prone Jets, he faces one of the toughest run defenses, but does get Colin Kaepernick back to open things up a little. The Niners are favorites in this game and there will be a lot of plays, so Hyde is definitely in play for me this week.
Devontae Booker – DEN at TEN – $4,800 – The Broncos are in such a bad place at the quarterback position right now, they are wanting to try to run as much as possible and let their terrific defense try to win out. They have the fifth highest rushing percentage over the last three weeks, and Booker is still the uncontested lead back there, getting 18 carries in Week 13. (Keep an eye on how the Broncos work in new signee Justin Forsett)
Pierre Garcon – WAS at PHI – $4,200 – Philly has been average in defending the non-primary receiver (16th against both WR2 and WR3), so Garcon who has 29 catches over the last five games, should be in position to make value in this matchup.
Anquan Boldin – DET vs. CHI – $4,500 – Chicago is bad against receivers like Boldin, ranking 25th against WR3. Boldin was an inch away from making value last week in New Orleans, settling for a four catch, 40 yard outing. Detroit has a hefty 25.5 projected team total, and Stafford is going to want to control the clock by using shorter passes to Theo Riddick (questionable tag) and Boldin, especially if Marvin Jones is out again this week.
Adam Thielen – MIN at JAC – $4,700 – It is a bit thin in the value area this week among pass catchers, so Thielen, who has 20 targets and 15 catches over the past two weeks, qualifies despite a tough matchup against Jacksonville.
Robby Anderson – NYJ at SF – $3,000 – Anderson saw 12 targets in Week 13, resulting in a 4-61-1 line. He plays as many snaps as Brandon Marshall and Quincy Enunwa, and he should get more chances against the 49ers, who play at the fastest pace in the league.
Tyler Boyd – CIN at CLE – $4,900 – With A.J. Green unlikely to play in Week 14, Boyd’s consistent targets and catches puts him in play. Over the last two weeks, he has 15 targets and nine catches and now faces the league’s second worst pass defense in the league.
Antonio Gates – SD at CAR – $3,800 – The Panthers may offer an opportunity for Gates since they are in the bottom ten in defense against the tight end. Rivers will eventually force some red zone throws to his long-time receiving partner in an attempt to get him to Tony Gonzalez’s TE touchdown record.
Vernon Davis – WAS at PHI – $3,500 – Cousins will throw, this we know, and Davis had six targets last week, some of which came when Cousins was in hurry up mode. With no Jordan Reed, Davis, along with Garcon and Jamison Crowder, are being asked to soak up some of that volume. (Keep an eye on Jordan Reed’s status this week)
Eric Ebron – DET vs. CHI – $3,800 – The Bears are 25th in defending against the tight end position in the league, and Ebron has 29 targets and 21 catches over the last four games, excluding his dud against the Vikings.
Carolina Panthers – $2,900- The Panthers are at home facing the Chargers who are second in turnovers per drive. Being a slight favorite, the Chargers are likely to be in position to donate a few more to the home team.
Buffalo Bills – $2,500 – The Bills have the #1 pass rush in the league. They’re at home this weekend against a Steelers team that performs worse on the road. Ben Roethlisberger has averaged 12.4 less DKFP on the road this season and has just 8 TDs with 5 INTs in 6 road games – compared to his 17 TDs with just 3 INTs at home.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.