Everyone knows the high priced stars that they’d love to load their lineups with, but you’ll need low-priced value plays to make it all work. Let’s look at who that might be for Week 10.
First, let’s see what did and didn’t work in Week 9.
THINGS THAT WORKED IN WEEK 9
1) Marcus Mariota – 36.34 – Gotta love New Orleans…and tipped pass completions.
2) Justin Langford – 25.2 – He didn’t start, but he did deliver.
3) Davante Adams – 18.3 – Second half and trailing Aaron Rodgers sure can be fun.
4) Brandon LaFell – 18.2 – Finally, the Patriots wide receiver situation wasn’t a mystery.
THINGS THAT DIDN’T WORK IN WEEK 9
1) C.J. Spiller – 2.0 – Ok, mercy, I’ll give up on him.
2) Ted Ginn – 3.0 – The Panthers ran and ran and ran.
3) Heath Miller – 6.2 – Miss you, Big Ben.
4) Jonathan Stewart – 7.8 – The may have run, but Stewart could not run into the end zone.
Anyway, on to Week 10 while I wonder at what point Darren McFadden will let me down. Contact me @JasonWalker_72 with any other value questions through the rest of Week 10.
Kirk Cousins ($5,200) – I’m not one to chase Kirk Cousins for QB points since there are usually a few others similarly priced options that are more consistent and will put up reasonably the same numbers for the week. However, I will make an exception in a 50-point game total against a pass defense that is easily the worst pass defense this season, week after week, in the New Orleans Saints. The game is in Washington, too, so it’s relatively easy to see Cousins putting up 4x his salary in this one.
Blake Bortles ($5,500) – The highest scoring road underdog this week are the Jaguars and Blake Bortles will have the ever-friendly Ravens defense to pass, pass, pass on when he inevitably fires up the catch-up wagon. This is Bortles’ highest salary of the season and it’s because over the last month of the season he’s 5x value three times, including a 6x performance the last time he had a favorable pass matchup, which was vs. TB. Fire away with Blake.
Joe Flacco ($5,500) – The Ravens defense has been so bad, I’m leaving Flacco here even though they are forecasted to be ahead in this game, hence the Bortles call-out above. The Jaguars pass defense is significantly worse, fourth worst in the NFL, than their run defense, so Flacco will be asked to pass the ball.
Darren McFadden ($4,900) – The Cowboys are actual underdogs to the Buccaneers this week, but McFadden is seeing every meaningful snap at RB right now, chugging along with none of the usual McFadden roadblocks to stop him.
Jonathan Stewart ($4,300) – It’s not as if Stewart doesn’t get Red Zone work, as he’s fifth in the league among running backs with touches in that area and #1 over the last four games (17 touches). He has a favorable matchup against the Titans, who are top ten worst in rush defense and Carolina is 12th in rush blocking. Also, the Panthers are five and a half point favorites on the road and are slated to score 24.8 points. Lastly, Stewart has had at least 20 carries in each of the last four games. I’ll take the volume.
Matt Jones ($3,300) – One last one for the Cousins non-believers out there. I give up, I can’t convince you. Instead, perhaps I can interest you in Jones, who is in the aforementioned high total game and will be the one receiving the meaningful rush snaps for the team, based on the snap counts the last two games vs. Alfred Morris (Jones has 69 snaps to Morris’ 20). Sure, he’ll split some passing downs with Chris Thompson, but will you take a tournament shot at the running back getting 2/3 of the carries in a 50 point total game at home with a one point spread for 3.3K? Seems reasonable to me.
James Starks ($4,900) – Could be a sucker play here, but Lacy’s injuries and general inefficiencies has thrust Starks into the starting role. Starks is an average RB but his opportunity is far from that. The Packers are 11.5 point favorites over the Lions, who can’t stop the run (4th worst) or the pass (3rd worst). Aaron Rodgers will get the Packers out early, at home, and then Starks will get the volume to close. 15 DK points feel like a great bet in this situation.
Cecil Shorts ($3,000) – Loving having Shorts back at the DK minimum in a game that the Texans are 10.5 point underdogs in Cincinnati. Brian Hoyer will have to throw because there is no Arian Foster anymore and the team’s best players are receivers. Shorts was getting between 8-10 targets per game when on the field and that should resume against the Bengals.
Brandon LaFell ($4,100) – Hey everybody, we did it! You and I picked LaFell in the Patriots Wide Receiver Crap Shoot and we won! So let’s do it again in a 55 game total where LaFell can continue his three-game streak of getting seven or more targets in a game.
Michael Floyd ($3,800) – Going against the Seahawks is not a tremendously profitable endeavor, but the game total is a solid 45, the game is in Seattle and the Cardinals are three point underdogs. As strong as the Seahawks pass defense is, their run defense is better. The Cardinals game fate will be in Carson Palmer’s hands and he’ll have to throw to be successful. Floyd’s matchup against Cory Williams is a plus matchup as well.
Willie Snead ($4,900) – It’s a little stretchy to include Snead here, but the Saints are on the road, Snead has had 7,8 and 10 targets the last three week and has made value even at this number in three of five weeks. It’s ok to go with Brees again and Snead has been a big reason why.
Jamison Crowder ($3,500) – As stated with Cousins, the Saints are terrible. Crowder has a decent vs. CB matchup with Kyle Wilson and has had 8, 9, 5 and 8 targets over the last four games. He’s not a game breaker, but he’s a nice PPR play in a high scoring game against a bad pass defense. It all adds up to value.
Richard Rodgers ($3,000) – Remember when Rodgers was 2.5K? Good times. He’s still an excellent value at 3K with Rodgers passing against a defense in Detroit that can’t get right. Rodgers has had 26 targets over the last four games and has seen two goal line targets in the last three games.
Kyle Rudolph ($3,000) – The obligatory, “Say, who’s playing Oakland this week?” tight end special takes us to Rudolph, who has largely been forgotten in the Vikings pass game, averaging about two targets per week. Still, it’s Oakland, so let’s see if some magic matchup dust can make Rudolph relevant in week 10.
Julius Thomas ($3,700) – The Jags are going to him, as evidenced by his 13, 5 and 8 targets in his last three games. There hasn’t been a lot done with them, but with the Jags likely to pass a lot against Baltimore, Thomas is in line to make some good on that target volume.
Philadelphia Eagles ($2,700) – Pretty simple equation here. The Eagles are sixth best at sack rate and then Dolphins are 25th in sack prevention. The Eagles are 6.5 point favorites at home, which means Tannehill dropping back to pass more. Eagles defensive points ensue.
Oakland Raiders ($2,100) – Raiders at home as a three point favorite makes for a decent defensive punt play at this price. They aren’t great at rushing the passer, but the Vikings aren’t great at preventing sacks, either.