WATCH: SLEEPER ALERT – JESSE JAMES
This is a weekly series where I break down my favorite tournament plays for the upcoming NFL week. I’m going to be focusing on high upside plays and pairings that could really pay off big.
Russell Wilson ($6,900) – Doug Baldwin ($6,500) = $13,400 total
Doug Baldwin has now posted eight fantasy games with 20 points or better on DraftKings over his last 12 starts dating back to last year, while Russell Wilson now has eight games with over 240 yards passing and 2 TDs in that same span. Meanwhile, Atlanta has given up a league worst 14 passing TDs thus far and will have to travel across the country for this game in Week 6. Trend wise, the stats support big game possibility here as well. Seattle is at home, playing an out of conference opponent and actually has one of the bigger team totals on the board this week with 26 — all of which point towards a higher output day for a QB. I love this duo for big GPPs in Week 6.
Bonus: Brock Osweiler ($5,400) – DeAndre Hopkins ($7,500)
Alex Smith ($5,700): Smith is not someone you want to rely on for big games on a regular basis, but he has proven more than capable of putting together a monster day. This week, Smith takes on a Raiders team who has given up the most passing yards through five weeks and is tied for the third most passing TDs allowed. The Chiefs are coming off a bye week and should have a healthy Jamaal Charles back at their disposal which should help open up the passing game a little. Smith has thrown for 13 TDs against Oakland over the past three season (6 games), and coming off a bye week, he should be prepared to take on what has been a very lackluster secondary. Smith looks like a good “naked” option at QB this week since his price is well under $6k and he has yet to complete more than seven passes to any one of his receivers in a game.
Bonus: Brock Osweiler ($5,400)
Lamar Miller ($6,600): Miller has been fairly disappointing since joining the Texans, especially considering the usage that he’s gotten thus far. Still, he’s taken on some tougher opponents in the first five weeks and now gets a great matchup here against Indy. The Colts have given up seven TDs already to RBs this year, and also have allowed 5.8 receptions per game to the position. With Miller dominating the touches, he should figure in for both some goal line work and at least 4-5 targets in the pass game (he’s averaged just under four a game).
Ryan Mathews ($4,900): Before Week 5 I did tell myself never to roster Eagles players again this year as they’re simply too hard to predict and love to spread the ball out. Then Ryan Mathews went and basically dominated most of the rushing work for Philly in Week 5 while also seeing five passing targets in that game. This breakthrough, coupled with the fact Philly is taking on the Redskins Week 6 — who’ve given up the second most rushing TDs and the third most yards to RBs in the league — make me like Mathews at a very reasonable price this week. With so many backs in play for Philly, Mathews is the definition of a boom or bust fantasy play but does carry multiple TD upside in a plum matchup.
Bonus: C.J. Spiller ($3,400)
Odell Beckham ($8,800): Baltimore corner Jimmy Smith has tried to intimidate Odell Beckham already this week, saying that he’ll “fight him” if Odell hits him late. All due respect, but Smith should be more worried about keeping Beckham in front of him. The Baltimore secondary has given up nine TDs to wide receivers over their last four games and have given up some big plays in the process, including three passing TDs of 20 yards or more. Beckham may not have “gone off” like everyone wanted him too last week, but he still received a whopping 13 targets and found the end zone. At home, against a weak secondary, I expect Beckham to thrive in this spot.
Allen Hurns ($4,700): While Hurns has seen his targets drop a bit recently he is still second on the team with 26 and has a better completion rate than Allen Robinson. The Bears corners got exposed badly last week by T.Y. Hilton, and Hurns, who like T.Y. also plays the slot a lot, will line up against either Tracy Porter or Cre’von LeBlanc most of the time — both players who have poor grades on Pro Football Focus thus far in the season. I think Hurns is line for a long TD or perhaps just a few more targets in this game, and I think he makes for a great tournament target at under $5k.
Bonus: Tyler Lockett ($3,600)
Delanie Walker ($5,500): Walker looked great in his return from injury last week, racking up a team high nine targets and six receptions, while also finding the end zone once. Walker and the Titans now take on the helpless Cleveland Browns who are getting destroyed by other teams’ tight ends on a weekly basis. Cleveland has given up the most yards and receptions to the position by a large margin so far this season and should have its hands full with the athletic Walker here. While Tennessee doesn’t throw much, it’s reassuring to know that Walker now has 17 targets over the past two games and might not need more than 5 or 6 catches to post a huge fantasy total against such a poor coverage team.
Bonus: Jesse James ($3,000)
Jacksonville Jaguars ($2,700): While it’s easy to dismiss the Jags as a bad team, there is some optimism surrounding their defense. Jacksonville has yet to allow a QB to throw for more than 210 yards in a game and have also recorded 11 sacks as a team over their last three games. While the big games haven’t been there fantasy wise (yet), they’ve also had the displeasure of facing four good/great QBs so far. However, that changes this week as the Jags take on Chicago. While Brian Hoyer has played decent since taking over as QB for the Bears, his numbers have been inflated a bit by garbage time and weak opponents. Coming off a bye week and priced at only $2,700, I like this Jags defense for tournaments. Watch the news but they might also be getting one of their best CB’s back in Prince Amukamara, a player who would help shore up their secondary.
Bonus: New England Patriots ($3,200)
Geoff Ulrich and Pat Mayo are promoters at DraftKings and also avid fans and users (usernames: wavegoodbye and ThePME) and may sometimes play on their personal accounts in the games that they offer advice on. Although they have expressed their personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and they may also deploy different players and strategies than what they recommend above.