The player pool for this week’s late games is very strange. It is really lacking in good, expensive options, which is a bit unusual. At the same time, there are a lot of middle-priced options, especially at wide receiver. Given the strange pool, the sections will be a little different this week than usual:
Moderately Priced QB
Russell Wilson, Seattle, $7,600 – No stud quarterback section this week. Peyton Manning is the only stud quarterback in the late games. Nothing against Manning, I just do not love him this week. I like Wilson much more than Manning given Wilson’s price this week. Wilson is averaging 20.1 fantasy points per game, coming off his bye week and facing a Washington defense that just allowed a career game to Eli Manning.
Even more Moderately Priced QB
Phillip Rivers, San Diego, $7,000 – Only four quarterbacks are averaging more fantasy points per game than Rivers is this season. Only four teams are allowing more fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks than the Jets have this season. Yet, Rivers costs the same this week as Joe Flacco and less than Cam Newton – neither of whom has been as good as Rivers nor has as favorable a matchup.
Stud Running Backs
Jamaal Charles, Kansas City, $7,600 – Neither of my stud running backs this week has a good matchup, in fact, they both have pretty unfavorable matchups. I like Charles because it looks like Kansas City has figured out that if they run the ball a ton, they win. Charles might only have a good game because he will get a ton of touches, but Charles is going to get a lot of touches and can have a big play on any of those touches.
Marshawn Lynch, Seattle, $7,200 – Talk about matchups not mattering, Lynch is the guy who was able to post very good fantasy games against the San Francisco defense when it was almost impossible to run against. Sure, Washington has been tough against running backs this season for the most part, but they did just allow the Giants to rush for 154 yards.
Bargain Running Backs
Andre Ellington, Arizona, $5,600 — Having watched all of Denver’s games this season, their defense looks better. Too bad for the Broncos that looks and statistics do not always match. Denver ranks 25th against opposing running backs this season, and Ellington’s worst game this year was 10.5 points. Ellington is a pretty good bet to provide double value, with the potential for a monster game.
Frank Gore, San Francisco, $5,200 — Gore is another volume pick. It is no fluke that San Francisco won the week they gave Gore 25 touches. The 49ers win by running the ball and playing good defense. While it is quite possible that Gore does not even manage 100 yards this week on the 25 touches I expect him to get, I think it is also unlikely that he does not top ten fantasy points. Besides, you are getting a starting running back for only $5,200 if you take Gore; you have to love that.
Moderately Priced Stud Wide Receivers
Demaryius Thomas, Denver, $7,400 — To say Thomas has been a disappointment this season is an understatement. There were some people who had him as the number one wide receiver this season; last time I checked, the number one receiver should not be scoring fewer fantasy points per game than Malcom Floyd. None of that matters to us, we only care about this week. This week Thomas is coming off of his bye week, is at home and facing the team that ranks 23rd against wide receivers this season.
Percy Harvin, Seattle, $6,100 — For a player who is expected to make explosive plays, Harvin has been lacking in explosiveness this season. Not to say Harvin has been bad, he has been decent, has stayed healthy and topped 11 fantasy points in every game. The problem is, his big game this season is only 17 fantasy points. That should change this week when he faces a Redskins defense that has major secondary issues and that has ranked 27th against wide receivers this season.
Bargain Wide Receivers
Keenan Allen, San Diego, $5,800 — In a year-long fantasy league it is probably time to “sell high” on Allen. We are not dealing with season-long leagues here; this is all about daily fantasy. Allen has a very nice price this week, is coming off a big game, and facing the team allowing the third most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. So yeah, I like Allen this week.
Doug Baldwin, Seattle, $3,500 – I had a great section on Marvin Jones this week, who then managed to tweak his ankle during practice this week and now is unlikely to play. No worries, I had Baldwin as my fallback option in case Jones was a no-go. Washington has major issues with their secondary. Baldwin has not had any monster game this year, but has been targeted at least five times in every game. While it is unlikely Baldwin has a huge game, you can pretty much count on him providing double value, with the likelihood of triple value given his low price-tag this week.
Julius Thomas, Denver, $6,900 – Arizona has gone from historically bad against tight ends to just bad against the position. The important word there is “bad“. The Cardinals are still not good against opposing tight ends, and Denver has too many other weapons for the Cardinals to double-team Thomas. Expect another nice game from Thomas this week.
Travis Kelce, Kansas City, $3,000 – San Francisco has been very tough against tight ends this season, yet I do not care. Kelce is criminally under-valued again this week. It helps that the pricing came out before the Monday Night game. There is really nothing I can say about Kelce I have not aid the first four week; he is a good tight end, who is going to provide a nice profit this week, and he is priced as low as a tight end can be priced.
Seattle, $4,200 – Frankly, I cannot imagine the Seattle defense not being good this week. They are coming off of their bye week. In addition, they are coming off two pretty disappointing performances, I just cannot see the Seahawks D having three bad games in a row. To top it off, the Giants defense managed 15 points against the Washington offense last week.
Kansas City, $2,300 – Yes, this is once again the cheap defense section. Kansas City’s defense is very unlikely to give you a monster game this week. They are also not likely to cost you points. San Francisco’s offense has not been very good this season and the Chiefs defense is still solid. It is hard to go wrong with a defense for $2300, especially when that D could easily provide double value.
Those are my picks for this week’s late games. Good luck with your teams this week. You can catch me on Twitter @STCDub.