No matter how you did in Week 6, that all gets erased as of today. We start to prepare for Week 7, and I have you covered from top to bottom. Let’s get right into all the information and get you ready to build those lineups. As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
The Vegas Lines
Highest Scoring Games
Below are the three highest scoring projected games and individual teams based on Vegas Lines.
1) New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts
Over/Under: 52 points
Line: Indianapolis -5
We certainly have a lot to like in this one. First and foremost, both of these teams are in the top 10 for being the worst against the quarterback position. The Saints take the cake in this one, as they’ve allowed 11 touchdowns and only intercepting two on the season. The 65% completion rate certainly justifies those numbers, as quarterbacks have passed for 1703 yards, which is the eighth most in the league. With Andrew Luck back at the helm for the Colts, all seems right once again with the offense. Luck was 30/50 against the Patriots with three touchdowns and 312 yards. Against a very leaky Saints offense, Luck should be in line for a fantastic game here, barring any injury setbacks. On the flipside, I love Drew Brees in this spot as well. Brees saves you $600 in salary and faces a Colts defense that has also given up 11 touchdowns this season with 1778 yards and a 64% completion rate. Brees has exceeded 310 passing yards in four of his five starts this season, which makes him such an intriguing play this week. In a game that should become a shoot-out and stay relatively close, we have a ton of options in this game to choose from. Keep an eye on the tight ends over at Indy as well, as the Saints are one of the worst in defending them.
2) New York Jets at New England Patriots
Over/Under: 48.5 points
Line: New England -9
This will be a great division game for week seven. The undefeated Patriots host the 4-1 Jets at New England. I’m honestly surprised with the opening line on this one, as I think the Patriots being favored that heavily is a bit much. The Jets defense has been fantastic to this point, and they should do their job once again here in week seven. The Jets have only allowed six touchdowns to quarterbacks this season while picking them off eight times. Brady’s TD: INT ratio is nearly perfect up until this point, sitting at 14:1. But when you look at the schedule he’s played thus far, Brady has faced five teams that are in ranked 15th or below against the quarterback. This will be the first real test for him this season. On the flip side, Ryan Fitzpatrick looks to be in line to have another good matchup here, as the Patriots have their issues against the quarterback and wide receivers. As always, with a game that has a high point total, it’s certainly worth a look for players in this one. Just be a bit careful with some of the “automatics” we’ve been rolling out with these teams lately.
3) Atlanta Falcons at Tennessee Titans
Over/Under: 48 Points
Line: Atlanta -4
This game feels to be a lopsided one when it comes to finding fantasy goodness. First and foremost, the Falcons will certainly be playing ahead in this one, so you have all the Falcons options on the table in this one. Julio Jones finally looks to be healthy again, as he was participating fully in practice on Monday. Ryan is coming off a game where he went 30/44 for 295 yards and two touchdowns. The Titans defense is decent, especially against wide receivers, as they’ve given up the least amount of yards at 663. With the Falcons looking healthy, I think we’ll see our fair share of Ryan to Jones and then plenty of the Devonta Freeman show. As for the Titans, Marcus Mariota remains questionable to play in this game, although initial reports indicate he’s more doubtful than questionable. That leaves Zach Mettenberger to take the snaps on Sunday. In relief on Mariota, Mettenberger was 5/8 for 63 yards and no scores. He doesn’t exactly have an ideal matchup in this one, as the Falcons have been great against the quarterback position this year. If anything, the Titans will certainly have to air the ball out in this one, so the targets for their wide-outs should be plenty. Just make sure to keep your expectations in check.
Lowest Scoring Games
Below is the lowest scoring projected game and individual teams based on Vegas Lines.
1) Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
Line: Seattle -6
Just when you think it’s safe to get a little excited about the 49ers, they run into the defense train that is the Seahawks. Kaepernick looked good in the process of throwing for 340 yards completing 16-27 passes and two touchdowns. But now he faces the tough Seattle defense in our Thursday night game. The Seahawks aren’t suffocating the quarterback position so much as they are the wide receivers. Seattle has only allowed one touchdown to them thus far while teams have completed 64% of their passes for 724 yards, the third least amount of yards in the league. For the Seahawks, one of their biggest issues has been their offensive line. Wilson has been sacked 26 times this season in six games, after getting sacked 42 last year in 16 games. Wilson has been sacked at least four times in five of the six games thus far this season. I think we’ll be seeing plenty of Marshawn Lynch in this one, as the 49ers have been struggling against the run this season. Luckily this is the Thursday game, so the majority of us won’t have to worry about avoiding this one, but honestly, even if you are playing Thursday, not much to be excited about here.
Defense vs. Position Matchup Breakdown
Worst DvP Matchups – Quarterbacks
1) New York Jets vs. New England Patriots – This category belongs to the Denver Broncos, but since they’re on a bye this week, the Jets slide in as the best team against the QB. On the season, the Jets have only allowed six touchdowns by the quarterback position, which is tied for the second least amount in the league. The Jets have also grabbed eight interceptions on the season, tied for third-most in the league. Sprinkle in a 52% completion rate and I think it’s safe to say, the Jets defense has been getting it done.
2) St. Louis Rams vs. Cleveland Browns – Seems pretty crazy to me that three teams have only allowed five touchdowns from the quarterback heading into week seven. Those three teams are the Denver Broncos, Carolina Panthers, and the St. Louis Rams. Along with the five touchdowns, the Rams have nabbed five interceptions as well. Even though they’re allowing a 73% completion rate, the 1277 yards allowed remains the one of the lowest, ranked 24th.
3) Carolina Panthers vs. Philadelphia Eagles – The Panthers have been fantastic against the quarterback position thus far. On the season, they come into week seven tied for the least amount of touchdowns allowed at five. The Panthers have nabbed eight interceptions and are allowing a 59% completion rate.
Best DvP Matchups – Quarterbacks
1) Baltimore Ravens vs. Arizona Cardinals – You have to like this matchup for Carson Palmer. Coming into week seven, the Ravens have allowed 11 touchdowns from the quarterback position to go along with 1830 passing yards, which are ranked fifth and third respectively. The Ravens haven’t had many interceptions, as they’ve only grabbed three, which is tied with four other teams for the third least amount in the league.
2) New Orleans Saints vs. Indianapolis Colts – The Saints are having all sorts of trouble with the quarterback position. On the season, the Saints have allowed 11 touchdowns and grabbed only two interceptions on the season. The two interceptions are the second worst in the league, tied with Dallas. Only the Jacksonville Jaguars have it worse with one interception. The Saints are allowing a 65% completion rate for 1703 yard, the eighth most in the league.
3) Kansas City Chiefs vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – With the way they were playing, I thought the Chiefs were always going to be the worst against the quarterback this season. I now stand corrected. The Chiefs are still one of the worst, though. They’ve allowed 14 touchdowns on the season, which is the second most in the league only behind the Chicago Bears. The Chiefs have only grabbed four interceptions on the season and are allowing a 59% completion rate on 1745 yards.
Worst DvP Matchups – Running Backs
1) New York Jets vs. New England Patriots – No doubt about this one, the Jets are the best team against the run. On the season, the Jets have only allowed one rushing touchdown on the season, which is tied for second, as two teams have still not allowed a rushing touchdown. The Jets have allowed the least amount of rushing yards at 299, which is 87 yards less than the Panthers have, who rank second.
2) Carolina Panthers vs. Philadelphia Eagles – The Panthers have allowed four rushing touchdowns on the season. However, the yards they’re giving up are tough to come by. As I just stated a moment ago, the Panthers are allowing 386 rushing yards thus far, which is the second least amount in the league.
3) Oakland Raiders vs. San Diego Chargers – Maybe I just don’t pay enough attention to the Raiders, but I was a bit surprised when I saw how good they are against the run. The Raiders have allowed three rushing touchdowns thus far for 413 yards on 110 attempts.
Best DvP Matchups – Running Backs
1) San Diego Chargers vs. Oakland Raiders – We have a matchup of one of the best teams against the run against the worst. The Chargers have allowed six rushing touchdowns on the season, which is tied for the third-most in the league. The 733 yards allowed is the second most in the league, trailing only the Cleveland Browns. It’s also worth noting that the Chargers have allowed three receiving touchdowns to the running back position, which is tied for the most with the Jaguars.
2) Atlanta Falcons vs. Tennessee Titans – The Falcons were the head of the class when it came to the worst against the run for the majority of the season. Trust me, they’re still terrible. The Falcons have allowed 10 rushing touchdowns on the season, which is the most in the league. They’ve allowed 447 yards on 127 attempts, which isn’t so bad, but the receiving aspect has been a killer. Running backs have completed 85% of the passes to them for 466 yards, which is the most in the league.
3) Cleveland Browns vs. St. Louis Rams – The Browns love giving up those yards to running backs. With 887 yards allowed, the Browns lead the league in that category on 171 attempts. The Browns have allowed four rushing touchdowns on the season and also have trouble in the receiving game. Running backs have caught 72% of their passes for 348 yards, which is the fourth-most in the league.
Worst DvP Matchups – Wide Receivers
1) Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers – The Broncos are the top against wide receivers, but once again, they’re on a bye week, so the Seahawks step in to take the number one spot in week seven. The Seahawks have allowed only one receiving touchdown to wide receivers this season, which is tied for the least in the league with the Broncos. The Seahawks are allowing a 64% completion rate on 724 yards, which are the third least amount of yards at this point.
2) San Diego Chargers vs. Oakland Raiders – The Chargers can’t stop the run, but they can certainly prevent the ball from flying. They just hope and pray they’re ahead in every game. The Chargers have allowed four touchdowns to wideouts as they complete 54% of their passes for 729 yards.
3) Atlanta Falcons vs. Tennessee Titans – I swear the Chargers and Falcons are molded as the same defense. The numbers are just too similar. The Falcons have only allowed two touchdowns to wide receivers this season, which naturally is tied for the second last amount in the league. The Falcons have allowed 933 yards on a 59% completion rate.
Best DvP Matchups – Wide Receivers
1) Kansas City Chiefs vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – Ah yes, the Chiefs and their struggle with the passing game. The Chiefs are tied with the Chicago Bears for the most touchdowns allowed by wide receivers at 11. The Chiefs have been shredded for 1364 yards, the most in the league, on a 61% completion rate. The Chiefs also lead the league in receptions allowed at 97, which is tied with the Eagles.
2) Baltimore Ravens vs. Arizona Cardinals – You still love this matchup for Carson Palmer and company, right? The Ravens have been getting torn up by wide receivers this season. They’ve allowed nine touchdowns to them, which is tied for the second-most in the league. The 1332 yards allowed are the second most in the league, besides the Chiefs of course. All of those yards are coming off a 62% completion rate.
3) San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks – The 49ers have been having all sorts of issues this season. Defending against wide receivers has certainly been one of them. On the season, they’ve allowed seven touchdowns to them and 1293 yards, which is the third most in the league. It certainly doesn’t help that wide receivers have caught 63% of the passes going their way.
Worst DvP Matchups – Tight Ends
1) Arizona Cardinals vs. Baltimore Ravens – I say this week after week, this section is a bit fickle, as the tight end position is so thin. Regardless, the Cardinals check in as the best team against them. They are one of two teams, the Cincinnati Bengals being the other, that hasn’t allowed a touchdown by a tight end. The 168 yards allowed are the second least amount by any team, only trailer the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Cardinals have allowed a 59% completion rate on 37 passes.
2) Philadelphia Eagles vs. Carolina Panthers – Here’s one matchup worth looking at, as the Panthers have one of the few elite tight ends in the game with Greg Olsen. The Eagles have allowed one touchdown by tight ends this season with a 71% completion rate for 251 yards.
3) Baltimore Ravens vs. Arizona Cardinals– Maybe this isn’t a good game to target tight ends. The Ravens finally have something to brag about when it comes to defending against an offensive position. The Ravens have only allowed one touchdown and 193 yards to tight ends, with the yards tied for the fourth least amount in the league.
Best DvP Matchups – Tight Ends
1) Oakland Raiders vs. San Diego Chargers – The Raiders were by far the worst against the tight end position. They still are, but other teams are starting to catch up. Going up against the Chargers this week, they can look forward to a team that has given up six touchdowns to tight ends with 399 yards and a 64% completion rate. The six touchdowns given up are tied for most in the league tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers. This will be a great spot for Antonio Gates.
2) Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers – Seattle mostly has their defense on lockdown. However, the tight end position has been giving them a ton of problems. Seattle has allowed five touchdowns to that position with the second most amount of yards at 458. Sprinkle in the fact that they allow a 71% completion rate to the tight end position and you have to love any tight end in this spot.
3) Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Kansas City Chiefs – Another good spot for a good tight end this week with Travis Kelce. Kelce and the Chiefs are looking ahead to a Steelers team that is tied for the most touchdowns allowed with six and the fourth most yards with 390. Tight ends are catching 66% of the passes thrown their way.
Last Week’s Target Leaders
Last Three Week’s Target Leaders
Lineup Quick Hits
One Quarterback You Should Build Lineups Around…
Carson Palmer vs. Baltimore Ravens ($6,700) – Am I crazy, or is no one talking about Palmer this season. If I am crazy, and people ARE talking about him, are they talking about him enough? I certainly don’t think they are. Palmer has an extremely favorable matchup this week against a Ravens team that is getting picked apart by opposing offenses. Add in the fact that Palmer is somehow only the seventh most expensive quarterback on the week and I’m jumping at the chance to get him on my roster. Palmer is coming off a 29/45 week for 421 yards and a touchdown while getting picked off twice. Palmer has thrown for at least two touchdowns four out of his six starts this season while exceeding 300 yards three times. This Ravens defense has allowed 11 touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks with a 65% completion rate on 222 attempts. With the price of Palmer and his matchups this week, I love this spot for him.
And the Wide Receiver You Should Pair Him With…
Larry Fitzgerald vs. Baltimore Ravens ($7,400) – I gave John Brown a good look as well, as Brown is coming off a nice ten catch 196-yard performance against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The only downfall with Brown is that his targets are not consistent. While Brown leads the team with 14 in week six, he only saw four in week four. Brown has only reached double-digit targets twice this season, which is also true for Fitzgerald. With Fitzgerald though, you are getting the consistency. Fitz has scored at least 15 points every game this season with six touchdowns. He has at least seven targets in every game with 11 being the most in week three. Palmer has his go-to guy in Fitzgerald and week seven should be no different. Fire these two up with confidence.
The Highest Scoring Running Back This Week Will Be…
Adrian Peterson vs. Detroit Lions ($7,600) – Bounce back city. Peterson destroyed a lot of lineups in week six (hi!) but he has an excellent matchup ahead to right the ship. Going up against a Detroit defense that has allowed nine rushing touchdowns this season, which is the second highest in the league, Peterson is bound to have a much better outcome than last week. The 627 rushing yards allowed by Detroit is also high, as it’s the fourth most in the league. Peterson isn’t used in the receiving game that often, but it’s also worth nothing the Lions allow a 67% completion rate to running backs for 192 yards thus far. Don’t let last week’s bust scare you off, Peterson is in a prime matchup here.
The Biggest Bust of the Week Will Be…
Julian Edelman vs. New York Jets ($8,200) – Edelman continues to see his price rise, and for good reason. He’s seen double-digit targets in four of his five games played. However, in the Sunday Night game against Indy, Edelman injured his finger and never looked the same after that. He had at least two drops on the night and seemed to be trying to catch with his chest first. With a matchup looming with the Jets, I can’t say I’m real giddy with getting Edelman and his extremely high price tag on my roster. It also doesn’t help that he could potentially be lined up with Darrell Revis. A Darrell Revis that is facing his former team in New England. Narrative Street alert.