Week four was full of exciting games and favorable matchups. Week five should be no different. Let’s jump into Week Five, where DraftKings continues to crown millionaires! I’ll have all the tidbits of info that will help you build a successful line in Week Five. As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
The Vegas Lines
Highest Scoring Games
Below are the three highest scoring projected games and individual teams based on Vegas Lines.
1) New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys
Over/Under: 49.5 Points Line: -8
If Dallas has any chance in this one, they’ll have to stop the Patriots early. With Dallas poor defense against the run, the Patriots will try to get up early and run the clock down, with their rushing potentially able to tack on those extra points they might not even need. You have a lot to like with New England in this one, and potentially Dallas, if they can keep this one close.
2) New Orleans at Philadelphia Eagles
Over/Under: 48.5 Points Line: -5
I must admit, I was a bit surprised to see the Eagles favored in this one. With Drew Brees quieting all his critics about his potential season-ending injury, Brees threw two touchdowns on 359 yards with no interceptions in an overtime win over Dallas. In week five, he faces an Eagles D that has allowed five touchdowns from quarterbacks, but also have picked them off six times. With that being said, Brees was completing mostly short throws, with the exception of the 80-yard pass to CJ Spiller. Facing an Eagles offense that is still looking for their identity, they face a Saints defense that has been having their isues with quarterbacks. The Saints have allowed seven touchdowns on 1075 yards and had yet to nab a pick. With Bradford throwing a touchdown in every game this season, he could be on the verge of a breakout game, one that the Eagles and its fans have certainly been waiting for. If he can replicate his play from last week, where he threw three touchdowns for 270 yards, we could be in a good spot this week.
3) Washington Redskins at Atlanta Falcons
Over/Under: 47.5 Points Line: -8
What I like about this game, is that the Redskins essentially take out the Falcons new secret (or not so secret) weapon this season in Devonta Freeman. The Redskins are the toughest team to run on this season, allowing only 236 yards on 70 carries this season. Add in the fact that they’ve only allowed one rushing touchdown this season, and the stone wall has been built. One may argue that Freeman is also involved in the receiving game, which is certainly true, as he’s averaged 5.7 targets per game. The Redskins once again have kept that to a minimum to opposing teams, with only 93 yards allowed and no touchdowns. With the Falcons being the worst team against the run, expect some extra work for the Redskins running game, even if it has been very underwhelming this season. The Falcons will certainly be focused on airing the ball out in this one, with Julio Jones becoming one of the most favored plays of the week. I don’t think this game is going to be the Devonta Freeman show.
Lowest Scoring Games
Below is the lowest scoring projected game and individual teams based on Vegas Lines.
1) Jacksonville Jaguars at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Over/Under: 42.5 Points Line: -3
I can’t say I’ll be rushing to my television to watch this game. The Jaguars put up a good fight against the Colts last week, but they ended up doing Jaguar things and lost that game in OT. But hey, give credit where credit is due, they certainly hung in there and gave the Luck-less Colts a run for their money. Also, for what it’s worth, the lineup that won a million dollars in week four here on DraftKings had Blake Bortles as their quarterback. Eat that, Aaron Rodgers! Bortles has a decent game in week four, throwing for 298 yards with a touchdown, although his 28-50 completion rate was less then stellar. As the favorite over the Bucs, he has a fairly tough matchup, as they Bucs have allowed eight touchdowns from quarterbacks with a 62% completion rate. Honestly, I don’t see a lot of fantasy goodness here. I’ll mainly be staying away from this one, as I usually do with the lowest projected score of the week.
Defense vs. Position Matchup Breakdown
Best DvP Matchups – Quarterbacks
1) Denver Broncos vs. Oakland Raiders – The Broncos just continue to suffocate the quarterback position in 2015. On the season, the Broncos have allowed only two passing touchdowns compared to their six interceptions. The Broncos have allowed a 64% completion rate for 859 yards.
2) St. Louis Rams vs. Green Bay Packers – I thought the Rams might not be in this section after a matchup with Carson Palmer last week. Palmer threw for 352 yards, but for only one touchdown and an interception. With that being said, the Rams remain in this section. They’ve given up three touchdowns but also have intercepted three. Pretty impressive, figuring they’ve allowed a 75% completion rate.
3) Arizona Cardinals vs. Detroit Lions – The Cardinals defense has been straight fire this season. Coming into their week five matchup against the Lions, the Cardinals have allowed five touchdowns by quarterbacks but have also picked them off seven times, which is only second to the Carolina Panthers. It also doesn’t hurt that they’ve allowed the sixth-least amount of yards with 834.
Worst DvP Matchups – Quarterbacks
1) Kansas City Chiefs vs. Chicago Bears – The Chiefs were at the top of this list last week, and it didn’t get much better for them. They’ve now allowed 11 touchdowns to quarterbacks on the season with only two interceptions. The 1244 yards are the third most in the league to go with a 61% completion rate.
2) New Orleans Saints vs. Philadelphia Eagles – Boy, the top of this list hasn’t changed much from last week. The Saints have allowed seven touchdowns on the season and are only one of three teams that haven’t registered an interception this season, joining the Seahawks (really?) and Redskins. They’ve allowed 1075 passing yards on a 62% completion rate.3) New England Patriots vs. Dallas Cowboys –We knew the Patriots were going to see a major regression with their defense this season. Coming into Week five (with a bye week already under their belt) the Pats have allowed six touchdowns but have also picked off quarterbacks five times. They’ve allowed 835 yards on a 65% completion rate.
Best DvP Matchups – Running Backs
1) Washington Redskins vs. Atlanta Falcons – This game will be an interesting one with the run. With the emergence of Devonta Freeman, he matches up against the best team against the run this season, the Washington Redskins. On the season, the Redskins have only allowed one rushing touchdown on 236 yards on 70 attempts. Make you wonder how much value Freeman will have in this one.
2) Seattle Seahawks vs. Cincinnati Bengals – Coming off his best game this season, Jeremy Hill matches up against the tough Seattle defense. The Seahawks have yet to allow a running back to score a rushing or receiving touchdown while holding opponents to 284 yards on 82 attempts.
3) Pittsburgh Steelers vs. San Diego Chargers– This one intrigues me as well because of how much Danny Woodhead is utilized, especially in the red zone. The Steelers haven’t allowed a touchdown to running backs as of yet and have only given up 349 yards on 93 attempts. The burden of targeting Woodhead in the RZ might be a bit alleviated, with the return of Antonio Gates this week.
Worst DvP Matchups – Running Backs
1) Atlanta Falcons vs. Washington Redskins – With how well the Falcons are doing with the ground game, you’d think they could at least have some answers to opposing running backs. This just isn’t the case here. The Falcons have allowed seven rushing touchdowns thus far, which is the most by any team. Opponents have gained 318 yards on 75 attempts and have also received 365 yards with an astounding 85% completion rate.
2) San Diego Chargers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steelers have one of the best running backs in the game going up against a weak Chargers D against the run. The Chargers have allowed four rushing touchdowns on 487 yards in 95 attempts. The receiving game for RB has also been an issue, as they’ve allowed two touchdowns for 285 yards and a 90% completion rate. Hellooooooo Le’Veon Bell.
3) Dallas Cowboys vs. New England Patriots – The Patriots get the big question mark of the week when it comes to running backs. Who’s going to be the lead back for the Patriots? It’s never a solidified answer, but no matter who it is, they can certainly succeed against the Cowboys. Dallas has allowed five rushing touchdowns thus far on 322 yards on 92 attempts.
Best DvP Matchups – Wide Receivers
1) Denver Broncos vs. Oakland Raiders – Have I mentioned how well this Broncos defense is yet? I mean it obviously makes sense if they’re the best against quarterbacks, they should also be against wide receivers as well. Rocket science is going on over here I tell ya! On the season, the Broncos have only allowed one receiving touchdown on 495 yards with a 62% completion rate.
2) Seattle Seahawks vs. Cincinnati Bengals – Can’t be looking forward to this game too much if you’re on the Bengals. For as great as Andy Dalton has been, he certainly has a tall task in week five. The Seahawks have allowed only one touchdown to wide receivers on 431 yards and a 66% completion rate.
3) San Diego Chargers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – Sure, the Chargers have been great against wide receivers this season. I mean, the numbers don’t lie. They have only allowed two touchdowns to wide receivers on 430 yards and a 59% completion rate. However, have you guys met Antonio Brown yet? No?
Worst DvP Matchups – Wide Receivers
1) Kansas City Chiefs vs. Chicago Bears – Oh Kansas City. Your incompetence against wide receivers is so apparent. They’ve given up the most touchdowns with ten on the season. They’ve also been burned for 975 yards, the most in the league, and a 61% completion rate.
2) Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns – The Ravens stay in the second spot on our list this week with a matchup against the Browns in week five. The Ravens have given up seven touchdowns on the season and 884 yards with a 64% completion rate. The seven touchdowns allowed are tied for third most in the league while their yards are second.
3) Buffalo Bills vs. Tennessee Titans – I stand by my statement from last week, it shouldn’t be this bad. The Bills have allowed seven touchdowns on the season with 772 yards and a completion rate of 55%. This could be a good week to lower some of these numbers.
Best DvP Matchups – Tight Ends
1) Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns – Again, I don’t take much into consideration when it comes to this position. Tight End is so weak that these numbers only really matter if a team has an elite player at this position. The Ravens have been the best so far, as they’ve only allowed 31 yards to TE on a 50% completion rate.
2) Philadelphia Eagles vs. New Orleans Saints – I honestly had to take a look to see who the Saints are running out at TE this season. The depth chart list, Ben Watson, Josh Hill and newly acquired Michael Hoomanawanui. Well, alright then. The Eagles have done their job against the TE position, allowing 160 yards on a 76% completion rate.
3) Arizona Cardinals vs. Detroit Lions – I mean, not much to dive into here. The Cardinals have done their part when facing tight ends, allowing 122 yards on a 57% completion rate. All three of these teams have not allowed a touchdown by a tight end.
Worst DvP Matchups – Tight Ends
1) Oakland Raiders vs. Denver Broncos – Now we get the juicy information. The Raiders have been brutal against tight ends this season. They’ve allowed an astonishing six touchdowns to them this season, which is the most in the league. Their 388 yards allowed is also the highest in the league with a 71% completion rate. Owen Daniels has to be a serious consideration at just $2700 this week.
2) New York Giants vs. San Francisco 49’ers – I wish I liked a tight end on the 49ers. With Vernon Davis questionable, this leaves such a gap for a position that could feast against the Giants. They’ve allowed three touchdowns to the tight end position on 368 yards and a 72% completion rate.
3) New Orleans Saints vs. Philadelphia Eagles – Again, another offense that doesn’t utilize the tight end position, and they could be missing out on a good opportunity here. The Saints have allowed three touchdowns to the tight end position on 332 yards and a 70% completion rate. Neither Zach Ertz or Brent Celek has been getting enough targets to make them worthy.
Last Week’s Target Leaders
Last Three Week’s Target Leaders
Lineup Quick Hits
One Quarterback You Should Build Lineups Around…
Peyton Manning($7000) – Do I dare? Do I REALLY dare throw this one out here? The problem with Manning, is that his offensive line has been failing him, causing him to throw quick, inaccurate passes. On the flip side, he faces one of the worst teams against the quarterback with the Oakland Raiders. Manning has PLENTY of weapons he can target; it’s just a matter of actually making it happen. I think this could end up being a game where we can see some of that fantasy goodness from Manning. He’s thrown six touchdowns already this season and has been picked off five times. The Raiders are on the low end with interceptions, with only three one the season. Truly, I don’t LOVE this pick, but I do think it brings enough value that it could pay off.
And the Wide Receiver You Should Pair Him With…
Demaryius Thomas ($8100) – A no-brainer with this one. Thomas has been averaging 12.2 targets on the season, going up against an Oakland defense that has given up 703 yards to wide receivers, which is the 9th most in the league. Granted, they’ve only given up two touchdowns to those wide receivers, but again, I think we have enough value here that this pick could pay off. Thomas gets enough targets that he’s always in line for something big. Averaging 19.3 points per game, Thomas is still one of the best in the game, even when Manning is seeing his game drop off some.
The Highest Scoring Running Back This Week Will Be…
Le’Veon Bell ($8500) Did you expect anyone else to be here? Bell getting a matchup with the Chargers is as close to heaven as we get in week five. Bell faces a team that has allowed the most yards per carry at 4.9 and 136 yards per game. With Bell picking up where he left off last season, this matchup should be cake. In just two games this season, Bell has run for 191 yards with two touchdowns. It also doesn’t hurt that he has 14 receptions on 15 targets for 91 yards. In a game that will certainly be Bell/Brown heavy, Bell is someone that I don’t just want on my team, I NEED.
The Biggest Bust of the Week Will Be…
Devonta Freeman ($6300) – This is going to be an unpopular pick I think. I still see a lot of people jumping on the Freeman bandwagon, but I just can’t get behind this unfavorable matchup. Freeman gets the Redskins, who are the top team against the run. They’ve only allowed 236 rushing yards on 70 attempts with just one touchdown allowed. Freeman has rapidly seen his price increase, and rightfully so, as he’s scored 45.3 and 37.9 points in his last two games. Throw in the fact that he has six touchdowns in those two games, and yeah, this is not going to go over well with people. But I’m ok with that, just how I feel. Personally, I’m staying away.