h2. The Vegas Lines
Highest Scoring Games
Below are the three highest scoring projected games and individual teams based on Vegas Lines.
1) Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers
Over/Under: 48 Points
We have two teams coming into this matchup at the complete opposite ends of the spectrum. First and foremost, we have the Green Bay Packers. They come off a victory against the Kansas City Chiefs that saw Aaron Rodgers complete 24 of 35 passes for 333 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions. If week three is any indication for the 49ers on how the Packers will be able to move the ball down the field, this one could be another massacre. Colin Kaepernick looked like he was playing football for the first time in week three, throwing four interceptions and no touchdowns against the Arizona Cardinals defense. With Carlos Hyde really the only option the 49ers have thus far, what chance do the 49ers really stand at this point? Now, we have to be realistic at this point as well. Kaepernick isn’t this bad. Coming into his dud of a game against the Cardinals, Kaepernick threw for 335 yards against a weak Pittsburgh Steelers defense with two touchdowns and no interceptions and a 71% completion rate. The Packers are in the middle of the road against quarterbacks this season, allowing four touchdowns on 721 yards with a 48% completion rate. This one should be a fun matchup to watch, one that should see the Packers feast on a 49ers defense that’s allowed five touchdowns on 911 yards.
2) Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins
Over/Under: 47.5 Points
It took three weeks, but we finally saw the Eagles offense click. Sam Bradford got the victory for the Eagles going 14 for 28 for 118 yards and a touchdown. Certainly not his best game this season, but the ground game is what shined in this one. With DeMarco Murray sidelined in this one, Ryan Mathews was the starting back and had his best game of the season. Mathews rushed for 108 yards on 25 attempts and added two receptions for 20 yards and a touchdown. It will be interesting to see how this plays out, as early signs show that Murray could be good to go in week four, even though he hasn’t been able to get much going at all. With the Redskins being the third toughest team against running backs, allowing only 163 yards on 53 attempts, the Eagles might have to let the ball fly in this one.
As for the Redskins, they’re coming off a loss to the New York Giants, which saw Kirk Cousins complete 30 of 49 passes for 316 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. The Eagles have done well with keeping quarterbacks relatively quiet thus far, as they’ve allowed 849 yards on a 65% completion rate with five touchdowns and five interceptions. This could be a sneaky game for Pierre Garcon, as they Eagles are allowing 593 yards to wide receivers with a 59% completion rate. They’ve also scored five touchdowns on the young season. Also, watch for a possible return of DeSean Jackson.
3) New York Giants at Buffalo Bills
Over/Under: 47 Points
The Giants might be the underdogs in this one, but you have to at least like the chances for a big game from Eli and company. The Bills defense has been a mess to start the season. They are in the top five of worst teams against QB, WR, and TE. Thank god they can at least stop the run. Manning comes into this game with a 2 touchdown 23-32 performance against the Redskins. With the Bills giving up seven passing touchdowns on the season already, Eli could be in position here to hit ODB with a few of those highlight reel catches. Manning has also yet to throw a pick this season, although the Bills have nabbed five thus far in the season. The run should be a non factor in this one, as the Bills have suffocated running backs, holding them to 193 yards on 41 attempts.
As for the Bills offensively, they’ve gotten quite the boost from Tyrod Taylor. Taylor continues to elude the DraftKings salary bump, as he sits at $5,800, even after scoring 24.3 points last week against the Dolphins. Taylor threw for three touchdowns last week, which was a great sight to see, as his legs were essentially shut down from a tough Dolphins front defense. Taylor is one of my favorite picks this week because he can essentially do it all and the price certainly doesn’t hurt either. Look for this one to be a high scoring affair.
Lowest Scoring Games
Below is the lowest scoring projected game and individual teams based on Vegas Lines.
1) Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Over/Under: 40 Points
The lowest projected scoring game of the season goes to the Panthers and the Buccaneers. Cam Newton had himself quite the game last week, scoring 32.9 points as he went 20-31 with two touchdowns and no interceptions. Feasting on a weak Saints defense, Newton was even able to rush for a touchdown and 33 yards on seven attempts. This week against the Bucs, Newton faces a team that has allowed six passing touchdowns and 692 yards with a 65% completion rate. This could be another game for Greg Olsen as well, as the Bucs have allowed two touchdowns to tight ends with 194 yards allowed.
As for the Bucs, Jameis Winston will have to deal with a Carolina defense that has shut down quarterbacks this season, only allowing two passing touchdowns on 737 yards with a 58% completion rate. Winston has thrown at least one touchdown in each of his three starts, but also has thrown a pick in two of those contests. The Panthers have been able to nab four interceptions thus far this season. Expect a ton of targets to once again go for Mike Evans, as he targeted 17 times in his first game back for the Bucs.
Defense vs. Position Matchup Breakdown
With two weeks under our belt now, we’ll be switching up the stats, focusing just on 2015.
Best DvP Matchups – Quarterbacks
1) Denver Broncos vs. Minnesota Vikings – Another week, another stone wall put up by the Denver defense against quarterbacks. In three matchups this season, the Broncos have only allowed one passing touchdown on 590 yards. It certainly isn’t helping that the Broncos are only allowing 49% of passes to be completed either.
2) Arizona Cardinals vs. St. Louis Rams – Nick Foles hasn’t looked good…..at all. It certainly isn’t going to get much easier in week four, when he has to take on a Cardinals team that only allowed two touchdowns from the quarterback with a league leading seven interceptions. The Cardinals have allowed 61% of opposing quarterbacks passes to be completed for 663 yards.
3) St Louis Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals – If you can’t beat em, join em! For as terrible as the Rams have been offensively, they have been able to essentially shut down the opposing teams quarterbacks. On the season, the Rams have only allowed two touchdowns this season while intercepting two. They are however allowing almost EVERYTHING to be caught, with an insane 81% completion rate. I have a feeling the Rams won’t be in this section after facing Carson Palmer this week.
Worst DvP Matchups – Quarterbacks
1) Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals – After a huge performance from Aaron Rodgers on MNF, the Chiefs have skyrocketed as the worse defense against the quarterback. They’ve now allowed 10 touchdowns in just three weeks while only intercepting two. They’re allowing a 59% completion rate on passes for 923 yards.
2) New Orleans Saints vs. Dallas Cowboys -Not many things have been going right for the Saints in 2015. Against opposing quarterbacks can certainly be added to that list. On the season, the Saints have already allowed six touchdowns while still looking for their first interception. They’re allowing 63% of passes to be completed for total of 829 yards.
3) Houston Texans vs. Atlanta Falcons -Boy, this stat is not going to get much better when the Texans face Matt Ryan this week. On the season, the Texans have allowed six touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks with two interceptions. The Texans are allowing a 53% completion rate for 699 yards. At least it looks a bit promising, just maybe not this week against Ryan and Julio Jones
Best DvP Matchups – Running Backs
1) Seattle Seahawks vs. Detroit Lions – The Seahawks might be having their offensive struggles, but their stone wall of a defense has been doing just fine. Against the run this season, Seattle has allowed zero touchdowns on 65 rushes for only 237 yards. They have however allowed 9 catches on 15 attempts for 98 yards.
2) Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens – The Steelers have been fantastic against the run in the early going thus far. On 58 rushes, the Steelers have allowed only 167 yards, which is the second least amount only to the Washington Redskins (who we’ll talk about in just a second.) They have allowed 16 catches to be made on 21 attempts for 130 yards to running backs.
3) Washington Redskins vs. Philadelphia Eagles – I’ll admit it, I didn’t put much stock into the Redskins team, but they’ve looked pretty solid defensively. Allowing only one rushing touchdown this season, the Redskins have held opposing running backs to just 163 yards on 53 rushes. They’ve also kept the receiving to a minimum, as they’ve allowed 11-19 passes to be completed, but for only 81 yards.
Worst DvP Matchups – Running Backs
1) Atlanta Falcons vs. Houston Texans – Were you surprised that the Falcons didn’t move off the worst defense against the run? No? Me neither. The Falcons are doing their best to keep opposing teams in the game with the insane amount of points they’re allowing from running backs. On the season, the Falcons have given up six rushing touchdowns on 58 rushes for 264 yards. As if that wasn’t bad enough, RB’s have 36 receptions on 40 attempts for 317 yards and a touchdown. Hey, at least that’s only a 90% completion rate. It’s not 100%! It’s the small victories in life.
2) San Diego Chargers vs. Cleveland Browns – I don’t think the Chargers will have to worry about the run game much in this game, but they still are one of the worst in the league against it. The Chargers have given up four rushing touchdowns on 74 rushes for 387 yards. They’ve also allowed 15 catches on 17 attempts for 139 yards with a touchdown.
3) Cleveland Browns vs. San Diego Chargers – Maybe the game plan in this one should be just to run. I think it would work out just fine. The Browns have allowed only three rushing touchdowns so far, but a ton of yards. Their 464 yards allowed on 86 rushes is the most in the league. RB’s are also 11-16 with catches for 147 yards.
Best DvP Matchups – Wide Receivers
1) Denver Broncos vs. Minnesota Vikings – The Broncos continue to have a stranglehold on wide receivers this season. Thus far, they’ve allowed 25 receptions on 45 attempts for a 45% completion rate. With that being said, they’ve only allowed 246 yards, which is the lowest in the league, and are the only team that hasn’t allowed a touchdown by a wide receiver this season.
2) San Diego Chargers vs. Cleveland Browns -Truly, this game might have to be with the run. The Chargers are honestly right there with the Broncos, if it wasn’t for the two touchdowns they’ve allowed this season. The Chargers have allowed 22 receptions on 39 attempts for a 56% completion rate. Aside from the touchdowns they’ve given up, they’ve only allowed 295 yards to WR which is second behind Denver.
3) St. Louis Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals – Again, I’ll be interested to see where the Rams rank after facing Carson Palmer this week. But then again, they did a good job of keeping Ben Roethlisberger off the board. The Rams have allowed one touchdown to wide receivers with 47 receptions on 58 attempts. However, they’re keeping the yards down, coming in at just 371. It’s quite impressive when you have only 371 yards allowed with an 81% completion rate.
Worst DvP Matchups – Wide Receivers
1) Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals – I said last week that the Chiefs stats could get real ugly with a start against the Green Bay Packers, and it didn’t disappoint. On the season, the Chiefs have allowed nine touchdowns to wide receivers for a total of 750 yards and a 60% completion rate. The 750 yards are the second most in the league only to the Baltimore Ravens.
2) Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – Oh look, here they are! The Ravens have given up six touchdowns to wide receivers for 782 yards for a 63% completion rate. Vick certainly draws a favorable matchup in his first start of the season.
3) Buffalo Bills vs. New York Giants – I know the Bills will be better than this. I’m just going to chalk this one up to a rough start. The Bills have given up five touchdowns to wide receivers for 652 yards and a 55% completion rate.
Best DvP Matchups – Tight Ends
1) Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – The NFL isn’t exactly loaded with talented tight ends. So we have a number of teams who have been able to tame some of the mid talent players they’ve faced thus far. The Ravens come in as number one in week four, allowing only 30 yards with a 50% completion rate. They do draw Heath Miller in this week.
2) Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Redskins – Another team that has been great against the tight end position, but draws a tough matchup this week is the Eagles. On the season, they’ve only allowed 105 yards on an 80% completion rate. They draw Jordan Reed this week.
3) New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins -One thing is for sure, with all these teams, for as good as they are against tight ends, in a PPR world like DraftKings, they certainly get their catches. The Jets have allowed 95 yards to tight ends with a 61% completion rate. It should be noted that all these teams have not allowed a TE touchdown yet this season.
Worst DvP Matchups – Tight Ends
1) Oakland Raiders vs. Chicago Bears – The Raiders continue to be burned by tight ends this season. They face a good one in Martellus Bennett this week, even though the Bears quarterback situation is far from ideal. The Raiders have allowed five touchdowns to tight ends on 305 yards and a 65% completion rate.
2) New Orleans Saints vs. Dallas Cowboys – Again, another situation where a team like the Saints are brutal against tight ends, but facing a Cowboys team with their second string quarterback in Brandon Weeden in the mix. The Saints have allowed three touchdowns to tight ends on 265 yards with a 73% completion rate.
3) Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens – Last week, we have such a huge matchup on our hands. We ALL thought Jared Cook was going to go off in this spot, but not so much. Let’s see if the Ravens can expose the Steelers. They’ve allowed four touchdowns to tight ends on 197 yards with a 54% completion rate.
Last Week’s Target Leaders
Last Three Week’s Target Leaders
Lineup Quick Hits
One Quarterback You Should Build Lineups Around…
****UPDATE:*** Luck is now considered questionable with a shoulder injury coming into this matchup. Until he’s officially ruled out, I think I’m going to keep him here for the time being only because this truly should shape up to be a good matchup for him. IF and a big IF he does not go on Sunday, Aaron Rodgers is the next obvious choice here with Randal Cobb. If you want a “sneaky” play, I really like Colin Kaepernick in a bounce back matchup this week as well.
Andrew Luck vs. Jacksonville Jaguars($7800) – DON’T CALL IT A COMEBACK! Well, you can if you want. With how poorly Luck has been playing lately, how can you not like a bounce back game against the Jaguars!? Yes, Luck has been getting picked off like it’s his job lately. With seven interceptions to go against five touchdowns on the season, it certainly looks bad. However he gets such a tasty matchup against the Jaguars this week, that’s its REALLY going to be hard to pass him up. The Jaguars have allowed quarterbacks to throw for 892 yards with five touchdowns and only ONE interception. You hear that Andrew? Only one! We have hope here. Truly, if there was a game this season where we could see Luck get back into form, it’s going to be this one.
And the Wide Receiver You Should Pair Him With…
T.Y. Hilton($6700) – One could say that pairing Luck with Donte Moncrief would be the logical decision, but I beg to differ on that one. Hilton and Moncrief tied for targets in week three, however it’s the 23.5 yards per catch average for Hilton that makes him the more enticing option for me at this point. Hilton has yet to score a touchdown this season, which once again make me like this matchup once again. Hilton has accumulated 227 yards on 15 catches this season, and he’s bound to have a breakout game sooner rather than later. Hilton is going to be one of the majors pieces to my lineup puzzle in week four.
The Highest Scoring Running Back This Week Will Be…
Matt Forte vs Oakland Raiders ($7100) Last week he has my biggest bust of the week and we couldn’t have been more correct. Granted, he was going up against Seattle, so it’s not like I had to perform major brain surgery to figure that one out. Well once again, no brain surgery needed here, as Forte against the Raiders should be a good one. I think the Bears are going to be relying heavily on Forte in both the rushing and receiving game, especially if Alshon Jeffery misses this week, which doesn’t look like that will be the case. The Raiders have allowed three rushing touchdowns thus far this season on 272 yards on 64 attempts. They also haven’t been able to stop running backs on the receiving end, as they’ve caught 23 of 24 passes for 120 yards. Expect a gigantic bounce back from last week, as Forte goes from one of the best defenses to one of the worst.
The Biggest Bust of the Week Will Be…
Calvin Johnson ($7,500) – Don’t even waste your money on this one. Calvin Johnson and the rest of the Lions offense are struggling. Not one receiver has eclipsed the 100 yard barrier this season and week four certainly won’t bring that either. The Seahawks have only allowed one touchdown to a wide receiver this season, the exactly amount of touchdowns Johnson has scored in three weeks. The Seahawks have allowed a 66% completion rate on catches, but wide receivers have only managed 325 yards on those catches, the third least amount in the league. The price tag on Johnson is WAY too high for this type of matchup and little room for success here.