No matter how you did in Week 9, that all gets erased as of today. We start to prepare for Week 10, and I have you covered from top to bottom. Let’s get right to all the information and get you ready to build those lineups. As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
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The Vegas Lines
Highest Scoring Games
Below are the three highest scoring projected games and individual teams based on Vegas Lines.
1) New England Patriots at New York Giants
Over/Under: 55 points
Line: New England -7
Another week, another game where the Patriots are involved in the highest projected scoring game. As usual, this game certainly has the potential to be one of the highest scoring games if everything goes according to plan.
First and foremost, let’s jump right into the obvious. This could be a monster week for Rob Gronkowski. The Giants are brutal at defending the tight end position. On the season, the Giants are allowing an absurd 71% completion rate for 701 yards with five touchdowns. With the injury to Dion Lewis, his 7.1 targets per game are going to have to go somewhere else. Hey Gronk, how’s it going? The Patriots, as they have all season, will be full of fantasy goodness this week.
As for the Giants, this is a bit of a tough one to figure out. The Patriots motto is always to take out their best player, which of course is Odell Beckham Jr. If that’s the case, it could bring some opportunities for some of the other Giants players. Ruben Randle is someone who quickly comes to mind in that aspect. But let’s make one thing perfectly clear, Beckham is who he is, I wouldn’t say fading him is 100% the correct answer. No matter what, this game should be heavily looked at when building your roster for week 10.
2) New Orleans Saints at Washington Redskins
Over/Under: 50.5 points
Line: New Orleans -1.5
During a time when the Saints defense is getting absolutely shredded apart, I don’t think I could be any less enticed with the prospect of Kirk Cousins getting a shot at them this week. In the past two weeks, the Saints have allowed 43 and 34 points to the Giants and the Tennessee Titans. Do I really want to look at Cousins? It will certainly be hard not to, as he has capitalized on weak defenses this season, most recently, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Saints defense is also the worst against opposing quarterbacks, so that has to make him more enticing. This is another game where the tight end position is going to be vital, as Jordan Reed has a fantastic matchup against this defense. With or without Cousins, Reed should be heavily relied upon in your lineup this week.
As for the Saints, Drew Brees has had back to back monster games, posting up at least 35 points in those two. He’s thrown for 892 yards in those two matchups with TEN touchdowns and three interceptions. Handcuffing Brees with Brandin Cooks might be the way to go this week, as these two have connected for three touchdowns on 10 receptions on 159 yards in their past two games. I think the projection for points in this one is spot on, and will be a mainstay in some of the best lineups of the week.
3) Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
Over/Under: 48 Points
Line: Green Bay -11.5
Finally, a favorable matchup for Aaron Rodgers and company. At least heading into his past two matchups, Rodgers was facing two tough defenses in the Broncos and Panthers. One game went to plan, as the Broncos held Rodgers to just 6.2 points on the day. The Panthers game? Not so much. Rodgers went off for 37 points throwing four touchdowns, completing 25/48 passes for 369 yards. This week, he has quite the favorable matchup against a Lions defense that does everything except defending. The Lions have allowed 14 passing touchdowns this season on 2157 yards and a 73% completion rate. Rodgers is expensive this week at $7500, but he should be worth the price of admission.
As for the Lions, they aren’t exactly going up against a stellar defense either, but it feels like Stafford is one more bad game away from riding the bench for the rest of the season. His TD:INT ratio is atrocious, sitting at 13:11 on the season. He’s only exceeded 300 yards once this season, otherwise, he’s hovering around the 250 range. I’d really like to be in favor of some aspect of the Lions offense, but it’s been hard to do so all season. With the Packers as heavy favorites, at least you know Stafford will be airing it out almost the entire game.
Lowest Scoring Games
Below is the lowest scoring projected game and individual teams based on Vegas Lines.
1) Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Pittsburgh -4.5
Well, this game became very unattractive, real fast. With the probably matchup of Johnny Manziel and Landry Jones on top, I can’t say I’m running to my phone to roster either of these players. One would argue that Antonio Brown is a must start no matter what, however I would beg to differ. Without Ben Roethlisberger, Brown is averaging only 11.03 fantasy points per game. Not exactly the type of production I’m looking for when said player is going to run me for $8,800 and is the most expensive wide receiver of the week. Overall, I think the only aspects I’m interested in will be DeAngelo Williams, as the Browns are horrific at defending the run, and possibly the Steelers defense with Manziel at the helm for the Browns.
Defense vs. Position Matchup Breakdown
Worst DvP Matchups – Quarterbacks
1) Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs – The Broncos suffered their first loss of the season in week nine and for the first time this season, looked a bit vulnerable on defense. Alas, they still remain the top D against opposing quarterbacks this season. The Broncos have allowed seven passing touchdowns the season, which is the third least amount in the league, to go along with nine interceptions.The 1650 yards are the second least allowed, trailing only the Seattle Seahawks, on a 62% completion rate.
2) St. Louis Rams vs. Chicago Bears – The Rams continue to shut down opposing quarterbacks. On the season, they’ve allowed only five passing touchdowns, which is the least amount in the league, while grabbing six interceptions. They’ve allowed 1895 yards, which is ranked 26th in the league on a 69% completion rate.
3) Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals – Coming off a bye, the Cardinals face the tough Seattle D in week ten. The Seahawks have allowed six passing touchdowns this season, but have only grabbed three interceptions, which is tied for last in the league. It’s most likely the least of their worries, as they’ve allowed the lowest amount of passing yards at 1633 on a 63% completion rate.
Best DvP Matchups – Quarterbacks
1) New Orleans Saints vs. Washington Redskins – If you really want to see what your quarterback is made of, throw him agains the Saints! They’ve been brutal against opposing quarterbacks as of late. The Saints have allowed 24 passing touchdowns, which is the most in the league. The Saints have allowed so many, that they lead the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by five in that category. The Saints are second in yards allowed, trailing only the New York Giants, with 2757 on the season.
2) Baltimore Ravens vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – Don’t sleep on Blake Bortles this week, he has a great matchup against the Ravens. While 16 passing touchdowns may look small compared to the Saints, the Ravens have been shredded by opposing quarterbacks. The Ravens have allowed 2406 yards, which is the seventh most in the league, on a 67% completion rate. The Ravens are also tied for last with only three interceptions on the season.
3) Oakland Raiders vs. Minnesota Vikings – The Raiders are certainly coming into their own as a team. Their offense is certainly clicking, however they could use some help on defense. Against opposing quarterbacks, they’ve been weak this season. The Raiders have allowed 15 touchdowns through the air while grabbing six interceptions. The 2601 yards allowed are the fourth most in the league on a 64% completion rate.
Worst DvP Matchups – Running Backs
1) New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills – It become more and more obvious as the weeks pass by, you don’t run on the Jets defense. The Jets are only one of two teams that has allowed just one rushing touchdown this season, tied with the Philadelphia Eagles. The 484 rushing yards are the least amount in the league as well as the 141 attempts. Everyone needs to ditch the run agains the Jets.
2) Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals – The Seahawks continue to do what they do best, defend. On the season, the Seahawks have allowed only two rushing touchdowns, which is tied with four other teams. The 610 yards is ranked 29th in the league on 170 attempts. Carson Palmer could be doing a lot of throwing in this one.
3) Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns – I don’t think anyone was getting nervous about the Browns running game coming to Pittsburgh this week. Nonetheless, the Steelers have been fantastic against whatever teams have been running out on the field. The Steelers have allowed only two rushing touchdowns to go along with 798 yards on 195 attempts.
Best DvP Matchups – Running Backs
1) Dallas Cowboys vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Normally, the San Diego Chargers would be at the top of this list. With the Chargers on a bye, the Cowboys slide right into the number one team to face for running backs. The Cowboys have allowed eight rushing touchdowns, which is tied for the fourth most in the league. 820 yards have been rushed by opposing running backs on 191 attempts this season.
2) Miami Dolphins vs. Philadelphia Eagles -The Dolphins have been giving up a ton of yards to opposing running backs this season. Aside from the seven rushing touchdowns, the Dolphins have allowed 988 yards, which is the third most in the league, on 218 attempts. They’re also struggling in the receiving game, as the Dolphins have allowed the most passing touchdowns to running backs with four.
3) Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers – Huge spot for James Starks this week, as he checks in with a $4,900 price tag and will be the lead back for the Packers in week ten. He will face a Lions defense that struggles to stop the run, allowing a league leading 12 rushing touchdowns. The 891 yards are the eight most in the league on 208 attempts.
Worst DvP Matchups – Wide Receivers
1) Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals – The Seahawks have actually dethroned the Broncos as being the top team against wide receivers. I said earlier that Carson Palmer will have to do a lot of throwing in this one, and even that won’t be a sure thing this week. The Seahawks are tied with the Broncos as the only teams that have allowed just one touchdown to opposing wide receiver this season. The 797 yards are the least amount in the league on a 60% completion rate.
2) Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs – A surprising performance from Andrew Luck last week finally bumped the Broncos down a spot. Even with luck throwing for two touchdowns and 252 yards, they Broncos still remain one of the best against opposing wide receivers. As I mentioned, they’ve only allowed one passing touchdown to wide receivers on 965 yards. The Broncos and Seahawks are the only teams that have held wide receivers to under 1000 yards completed through ten weeks of play.
3) St. Louis Rams vs. Chicago Bears – The Rams continue to hold down the number three spot, at least for one more week, as the Atlanta Falcons are on a bye this week. The Rams have allowed three touchdowns to opposing wide receivers on 1065 yards, the third least amount in the league.
Best DvP Matchups – Wide Receivers
1) Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos – This is going to be the ultimate test for Peyton Manning this week. Is your arm really shot or not, because your wideouts have a fantastic matchup this week against the Chiefs. They’v allowed 13 touchdowns to wide receivers, which is tied for the second most in the league. The 1722 yards completed are also ranked second in the league on a 61% completion rate. This is your week, Manning.
2) Baltimore Ravens vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – Like I said earlier, don’t sleep on Blake Bortles in Week 10. Not only do the Ravens struggle against the quarterback position, the do the same against wide receivers as well. The Ravens have allowed 14 touchdowns to opposing wideouts, which is tied for the most in the league. The 1663 yards are the fifth most in the league with 63% of the passes being completed.
3) Philadelphia Eagles vs. Miami Dolphins – “Jarvis Landry, Come on down! You’re the next contestant playing against a flimsy Eagles defense!” The Eagles have certainly had their struggle against wide receivers this season. They’ve allowed 11 touchdowns to them, which is tied for fourth in the league. The Eagles have seen a 62% completion rate go for 1589 yards, which is ranked eighth.
Worst DvP Matchups – Tight Ends
1) Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos – The Broncos get to try out their new toy this week in a tough matchup for Vernon Davis. Say what you want about them against wide receivers, the Chiefs are fantastic at defending tight ends. The Chiefs have allowed two touchdowns to opposing tight ends, most most impressively, holding them to the least amount of yards in the league at 238.
2) Philadelphia Eagles vs. Miami Dolphins – I really thought Jordan Cameron would flourish in Miami. Nah, not at all. He certainly won’t break out in week ten either. The Eagles have held opposing tight ends to just one touchdown this season on 379 yards.
3) Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks – Well, at least the Cardinals have the advantage over Seattle in one category. Just so happens to be one of the positions they seem to pay the least attention to. The Cardinals have held opposing tight ends to one touchdown this season on 294 yards, the second least amount in the league.
Best DvP Matchups – Tight Ends
1) Oakland Raiders vs. Minnesota Vikings – It’s been well document that the Raiders cannot stop tight ends if their season depended on it. The Raiders have allowed a whopping nine touchdowns to them, which leads the league by two.The 491 yards hasn’t been that bad, on a 61% completion rate.
2) New Orleans Saints vs. Washington Redskins – A good spot for Jordan Reed in week 10. The Saints have popped up as a team to face for opposing tight ends. The Saints have allowed seven touchdowns to this position. Unlike the Raiders, the Saints have also given up a ton of yards to them, 725, which leads the league. Those 725 yards are coming off a ridiculous 75% completion rate.
3) New York Giants vs. New England Patriots – Uh-oh. Not the team you want to face if you struggle against opposing tight ends. With Rob Gronkowski coming to town, the Giants have allowed five touchdowns to opposing tight ends on 701 yards, the second most in the league. I have a feeling that 71% completion rate they currently have will go up even higher this week.
Last Week’s Target Leaders
Last Three Week’s Target Leaders
Lineup Quick Hits
One Quarterback You Should Build Lineups Around…
Aaron Rodgers ($7,500) – It feels like it’s been quite awhile since I’ve had my eyes on Rodgers. With a slew of unfavorable matchups lately, I’ve been doing my best to avoid him like the plague. That will all change this week when he matches up against the Detroit Lions. This is a defense that has allowed 14 passing touchdowns this season on 2157 yards and a 73% completion rate. Some awfully nice numbers for Rodgers to be coming into. With his really strong performance against a tough defense like the Panthers last week, I’m fully confident that he will be one of the top scoring quarterbacks this week. He’s a bit expensive, but I think it will be worth it. Besides, the wide receiver you’ll be paring him with has seen a nice drop in his price….
And the Wide Receiver You Should Pair Him With…
Randall Cobb ($6,700) – If you told me Cobb has been a giant disappointment this season, I’d have to tend to agree with you. I think this is the week that will all turn around. Not only is the matchup a good one, as the Lions have allowed 8 touchdowns to wide receivers on 1493 yards and a 75% completion rate, but the return of Davante Adams could prove to be crucial. Without Jordy Nelson or Adams, all teams had to do was focus on Cobb. Thus, his production took a huge hit, as he hasn’t had a game with double digit scoring since week three, besides last week. It’s a perfect storm and I think one that will need to be looked upon when building your lineups this week.
The Highest Scoring Running Back This Week Will Be…
DeAngelo Williams ($6,500) – I think this game could end up being the Williams show when it’s all said and done. At a friendly price of $6,500 and an incredible matchup ahead, it’s hard not to love Williams this week. The Browns are putrid against the run this season, as they’ve given up the most yards in the league at 1263. Mix that in with 6 rushing touchdowns and how can you even fathom thinking of skipping over Williams this week?
The Biggest Bust of the Week Will Be…
Antonio Brown ($8,800) – Two words, Landry Jones. Coming off a gigantic week in which Brown scored 49.6 points WITHOUT even reaching the end zone, Brown should be heavily looked at in week ten. However, we’ve done the math, and Brown with and without Big Ben is a world of difference. Without Roethlisberger, Brown is averaging only a measly 11 fantasy points per game. Not exactly the type of production you’d expect from the most expensive player on the entire slate. On paper, Brown has a good matchup this week, I just don’t want to spend the $8,800 to find out. I can happily do that from the sidelines.