WATCH: High Priced RB Debate


I am mainly a cash-game player. Cash games refer to any DraftKings contest in which roughly 50 percent of the field gets paid out, such as head-to-head, double up or 50/50. For more on what I look for in cash games, check out this primer or the positional looks for quarterback, running back and wide receiver.

Each week, I’ll review my cash-game lineup in this space. Sometimes I’ll lose, but but hopefully I’ll win more often. Either way, I’ll post it and give you my thought process.

LU Review 12

MY MUST PLAYS

  • From a roster construction standpoint, the biggest question of the week whether to pay for the top-two RBs (David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell). For cash games, I thought the outrageous floor projections for each was too great to ignore. So even though I liked the spots for Julio Jones, Antonio Brown and Mike Evans, I knew I wasn’t going to play them over the similarly-priced running backs. So once I could project Dorial Green-Beckham, Jeremy Hill and Anquan Boldin for large market shares at cheap price, I locked in both DJ and Bell. As discussed repeatedly over the last few weeks, these running backs are truly unique in a full-PPR format like DraftKings.
  • Generally speaking, Jeremy Hill is a game-flow dependent and touchdown dependent kind of fantasy play. I was still comfortable with him this week for three reasons. First, Gio Bernard’s ACL tear allowed Hill to have an enhanced route running and reception projection. Second, I felt this spiraling and talent-deficient Eagles team was unlikely to get a lead – regardless of what the line suggested. And finally, Hill was just $4,300 with a 15-touch floor. It’s typically hard for a running back to fail too badly with that kind of usage.
  • Drew Brees was at home facing the league’s worst pass defense by most metrics, including DVOA and completion percentage allowed. I also expected Matthews Stafford and the Lions offense to play well, meaning Brees would have to keep his foot on the gas. So whereas I could poke holes in quarterbacks such as Tom Brady (blowout), Aaron Rodgers (hamstring/weather), Ben Roethlisberger (underrated NYG defense) and Russell Wilson (offensive line woes), I couldn’t find any holes in Brees. Throw in DraftKings’ 300-yard bonus, which I felt Brees was a lock for, and I considered him a must. The result was obviously disappointing, but I have no regrets whatsoever.
  • I certainly had hesitation on Dorial Green-Beckham given the fact he’s simply not a very good NFL player right now. But with Jordan Matthews (ankle) ruled out and Nelson Agholor’s snap count in question, the target projection was simply too massive to ignore at stone minimum $3,000. It certainly helped that I expected the Eagles to be forced to the air and that DGB is a red-zone threat if nothing else at 6’5/237. I originally wanted to play Marquess Wilson ($4,000) over Green-Beckham, but the weather there combined with JMatt’s absence got me off Marquess.


MY WANT PLAYS

  • I’ve talked a lot in this space about plugging my leak of the no-ceiling, low-floor tight end. I didn’t think Eric Ebron fit that description in this particular spot. With Marvin Jones’ 7.0 targets per game out of the way and one of the best possible spots at New Orleans, I expected Ebron to be featured with a target floor of seven and upside for a lot more. I did play around with getting up to Travis Kelce and moving off Willie Snead to Tyreek Hill, but that would have left me with two Chiefs. I was far more comfortable with having two Lions as I did not expect the Chiefs to play very well in Atlanta.
  • The decision between Anquan Boldin and Marquess Wilson became a no-brainer for me on Sunday morning. First, we had the weather situation in Chicago. And although Marvin Jones’ absence didn’t really affect Boldin’s snap or role projection as the slot man, it did clear out seven targets. Given that Boldin was already seeing a high volume of targets and led the team in red-zone looks, I thought he was good cheap exposure to Matthew Stafford, similar to Ebron but with far more red-zone appeal.
  • Willie Snead was the play I felt the worst about. His production had been scant while only playing on around 60 percent of the snaps. But I ended up on him because he had the best matchup working the slot against Quandre Diggs and because the correlation with Brees gave me a ceiling for H2H. I did have enough money to get to Jarvis Landry, but in the end I decided to stick with Snead once DeVante Parker (back) was deemed active.
  • I played with some lineups that kept leaving me $100 short of Broncos D, obviously the best play on the board against mistake-prone Blake Bortles. I also toyed with the Bengals, Packers and Cardinals. In the end I thought the Ravens elite unit at home would provide a high floor. In hindsight, the Packers were probably a better play given the weather in Green Bay and Brock Osweiler clearly having less awareness and skills than Ryan Tannehill. But sometimes we make the wrong move and it works out to our benefit.


YEAR-TO-DATE RESULTS

Week 1: 100.38 points, won 7.3 percent of head-to-heads. No recap available.
Week 2: 160.0 points, won 87.0 percent of head-to-heads. Click here for recap.
Week 3: 182.26 points, won 94.5 percent of head-to-heads. Click here for recap.
Week 4: 131.12 points, won 42.5 percent of head-to-heads. Click here for recap.
Week 5: 149.70 points, won 60.9 percent of head-to-heads. Click here for recap.
Week 6: 169.48 points, won 75.5 percent of head-to-heads. Click here for recap.
Week 7: 183.12 points, won 76.7 percent of head-to-heads. Click here for recap.
Week 8: 109.3 points, won 21.7 percent of head-to-heads. Click here for recap.
Week 9: 135.04 points, won 47.8 percent of head-to-heads. Click here for recap.
Week 10: 147.90 points, won 54.1 percent of head-to-heads. Click here for recap.
Week 11: 131.88 points, won 45.6 percent of head-to-heads. Click here for recap.
Week 12: 134.10 points, won 86.3 percent of head-to-heads. Click here for recap
Week 13: 133.74 points, won 53.1 percent of head-to-heads.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is AdamLevitan) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.