With the first week of Millionaire Maker behind us, I’m taking a dive into potential deep sleepers for your lineups. Week 2 provides a great opportunity to apply many of the learnings, observations, and stats from watching the NFL’s opening games. Trick here is to balance expectations and reactions from previous weeks with a clear mind — I see way too many first timers with the ‘he’s due for a big week’ mindset. Value and variance remain the keys to success in large pools no matter what trends you think you’re seeing among players. Likewise, always build a healthy blend of qualitative and quantitative data in to your drafting strategy. With this in mind here’s some free ammo:
Nick Foles ($5,500): Foles had a solid game last week, versus arguably, the best defense in the NFL headed into week one. The stat that really stood out to me was Foles willingness to throw the ball downfield against the vaunted Seahawks secondary. Foles averaged (11.0) yards per passing attempt. If that trend continues, Foles could be in line for a big week, due to a lackluster Skins secondary that tends to get beat deep.
Chris Johnson ($3,800): It’s going to be the Chris Johnson show for the Arizona Cardinals in Chicago this Sunday. Andre Ellington went down in the fourth quarter of last week’s game, and it was Chris, not David Johnson, who received the final seven carries in the wake of Ellington’s injury. Johnson himself said he believes he will get 20-25 touches this week if that happens to be the case, you should ride him at the ($3,800) price tag.
Khiry Robinson (3,000) The Bucs defense gave up a receiving touchdown to Bishop Sankey in week one. Robinson struggled on the ground last week, but did a great job in the passing game, catching five of six targets for 51 yards. In the absence of CJ Spiller, Robinson and Drew Brees have developed a nice little rapport, and this trend should carry over in week 2.
Terrance Williams ($4,200) Williams is the man who should benefit the most in terms of production within the Cowboys offense due to the Dez Bryant injury. Tony Romo looked his way three times for 42 yards on the final two drives versus the Giants, his final catch set up the game winning touchdown to Jason Witten on the very next play. Williams probably doesn’t qualify for the deepest of sleepers but in terms of his pricing on DraftKings he’s pretty low.
Colby Fleener – ($3,000): Fleener had one target and one reception for five yards in week one. He also lost the snap count battle to fellow Colts tight end Dwayne Allen (53) to (37). These are definitely not the most promising stat lines heading into week 2, but in a game that will showcase Darrelle Revis and a strong Jets D-line, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Colts went with more two tight end sets in an attempt to get the talented pass catcher involved.
Tavon Austin – ($3,500) Austin is a great variance play in that he is a threat to score every time he touches the football. The Rams made a conscientious effort to get the ball in Austin’s hands in week one versus the Seahawks and he rewarded them for it by scoring two touchdowns. Nick Foles will want to throw the ball downfield verse the Skins and Austin has as good of chance as any receiver in the Rams offense in getting behind the Redskins secondary.
Eagles Defense – ($2,700): Not necessarily a deep sleeper in terms of price tag, but I love the matchup. Romo has a history of folding under the pressure, when the onus tends to be all on him in terms of an offensive game plan. The Eagles D while they struggled to contain Julio Jones last week, are one of the best in the league at creating turnovers evident by their two interceptions of Matt Ryan.
The first place any DFS player should look in terms of lineup building is Vegas. Spreads are one of the better ways of pinpointing the way a game might go.Lines to keep in mind:
- O/U 51.5 Falcons Giants
- Saints -10
- Rams -31.5
- Patriots -1
- Cardinals -2.5