Plays at each position to help you take down this week’s Millionaire Maker contest.


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QUARTERBACK

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Carson Palmer, Arizona (at SF) – $7100

The Cards are the top-projected offense on Sunday by a healthy margin. I do have a few concerns about Palmer’s safety since Arizona is a 10.5-point road favorite, but I will be all over him in the Millionaire Maker. Larry Fitzgerald, who will see very high ownership since he’s underpriced, is still an obvious pairing.

Blake Bortles, Jacksonville (vs SD) – $5900

The Jags are actually the third-highest projected offense against the Chargers. Bortles has proven he’s very fantasy-relevant and will be facing a defense that has allowed 2.7 points per game above expected over the past year.

VALUE OF THE WEEK

Brian Hoyer, Houston (vs NO) – $5000

I think a lot of people are going to be on Hoyer because the narrative is that New Orleans has an all-time poor pass defense, but it’s true; they’ve given up 9.7 points per game above expected to quarterbacks—by far the worst mark in the NFL. There’s an obvious stack here, but keep in mind Hoyer/Hopkins will be very popular.


RUNNING BACK

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Adrian Peterson, Minnesota (at ATL) – $7300

This game is close to a pick ‘em, so I’m not that concerned about Peterson’s floor due to game script. This is really just a matter of price, and I’m less likely to fade obvious values at the running back position than anywhere else.

LeSean McCoy, Buffalo (at KC) – $5300

This is another example of price-sensitivity, with the difference being that Shady doesn’t actually have a great matchup; the Chiefs have the top defense in the NFL against running backs after adjusting for salary. Thus, I probably wouldn’t use McCoy in cash, even though he’s underpriced, but I will use him in the Millionaire Maker.

VALUE OF THE WEEK

Thomas Rawls, Seattle (vs PIT) – $4500

I’m actually not in love with Rawls in tournaments this week, but I wanted to point him out because he’s definitely underpriced and I think he’ll be in a ton of lineups due to his recent breakout performance. The Steelers have an underrated run defense; this is a candidate for a fade.


WIDE RECEIVER

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Odell Beckham, Jr., NY Giants (at WAS) – $8700

No single player has burned me more over the past year than OBJ. Now I’m finally on him against a defense that has allowed 2.1 points per game above expected to opposing receivers over the past 16 games. I actually prefer Beckham to even DeAndre Hopkins in terms of value, and I think most will be on the Houston receiver.

Eric Decker, NY Jets (vs MIA) – $5800

He scores touchdowns at an elite rate. It’s just a matter of how often the Jets can get into the red zone; they’re projected moderately at 23.3 points this weekend, but Decker is worth the risk at $5800.

VALUE OF THE WEEK

Vincent Jackson, Tampa Bay (at IND) – $4700

Jackson is underpriced at $4700 regardless of whether or not Mike Evans draws Vontae Davis on every snap. We know he can score with consistency, and it’s pretty clear Jameis Winston is capable of moving the football to give his receivers opportunities.


TIGHT END

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Rob Gronkowski, New England (at DEN) – $7900

#GronkLife

Delanie Walker, Tennessee (vs OAK) – $5400

No team has been worse against tight ends than Oakland, and it isn’t close. They’ve patched it up a bit, but Walker is still a really talented play-maker on a home underdog. I think he will be pretty popular due to the Oakland-sucks-against-tight-ends narrative, but I don’t believe ownership will be prohibitive.

VALUE OF THE WEEK

Heath Miller, Pittsburgh (at SEA) – $3100

Everyone avoids the Seattle defense, but they’re actually mediocre against opposing tight ends. I do wish Miller had a little more upside, but he’s smart play given the cost and the fact that I think his ownership with be just a couple percent.


DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

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Arizona Cardinals (at SF) – $3900

You have the top offense of the week against the worst. It’s highly unlikely the Niners will be close late in this game, which means lots of low-percentage dropbacks in the fourth quarter.

Kansas City Chiefs (vs BUF) – $2800

Even if Tyrod Taylor plays, I like Kansas City as a contrarian selection. The over/under in this game is just 41.5, even though the Chiefs are currently six-point favorites.

VALUE OF THE WEEK

Houston Texans (vs NO) – $2500

This is obviously a high-variance selection, but the Houston defense is playing lights-out right now. If you think Hoyer will be able to throw on New Orleans so that Houston can get a lead, then the Texans’ D should be in a good spot to rush a quarterback who, although clearly talented, isn’t afraid to take chances when down.


Jonathan Bales is the author of the Fantasy Sports for Smart People book series, most recently Fantasy Football for Smart People: How to Win at Daily Fantasy Sports.

Follow him @BalesFootball.