The final fantasy football action of the 2014 season happens today. It’s sad to see it in black and white like that, I know, but at least it’s already 2015, and the first preseason action of next season is only 202 days away. A big win today would make those 202 days fly right by, so good luck.
Today might very well be the best single day of football of the entire year. And we got a good one this year. These four teams are not only qualified, but exciting, full of intriguing match ups and players capable of breathtaking plays. I can’t wait.
But there are just the four teams. It certainly makes drafting these fantasy lineups interesting. You end up relying on players you’d never normally use, and so did everyone else, it seems. So. Much. Overlap. But I am here to present you with a my “contrarian” point of view for the final time of the year – being contrarian doesn’t matter. Sure, picking someone no one else did and being right is super valuable, but the important part of that equation is the “being right” part. If you take a bunch of guys who are all 35% or 40% owned, and you are right on all of them, you will be just fine. Because it’s not the same 40% owning all of them.
For today, you are bound to have a few decisions where you really could have gone either way. This kind of analysis is possible any week, if you’re interested, but it is easier with four teams, so here goes…
I will begin by saying that, as much as it pains me to admit, there are people in the world who know more about football than I do. Coaches, players, analysts (for the most part), announcers (occasionally) and – gasp! – even some other fantasy players and/or writers (I guess). And on that distinguished list, you can include “Vegas.” I’ve seen enough 7.5 point spreads end 27-20 and enough 54.5 point totals on a game that ends 31-23 to know that Vegas knows what he’s talking about. Well, today, the Seahawks and Patriots are both favored by about a touchdown, and the total on the Pats-Colts game is about a touchdown higher. That means that, in order, Vegas expects the points scored to look like this – New England at the top, followed by Indy, Seattle, and then Green Bay.
The names you like the most are on Green Bay, probably; it is always hard to decide which guy from the Seahawks might be a good play in any given week; and everyone is going to be playing Gronk, so what good does it do?
Well, if you’re deciding between Davante Adams ($4,300) and Danny Amendola ($4,500), this could be a tiebreaker. If you’re taking Davante Adams because you think Sherman is going to move around this week to make sure Jordy is on lockdown, fine, follow your gut. But if you’re playing him because he’s cheap, Vegas thinks the Pats are going to outscore Green Bay by double digits.
If you think Seattle is going to win the game, remember how that happens – they outscore the Packers. Which means they outscore them in terms of fantasy points, too, almost every time.
If you think that, win or lose, Andrew Luck can’t be stopped and if the Pats want to win they better put up 40 because this game is going to be a shootout, then your entire lineup should be constructed out of Pats and Colts. There are only four teams playing anyway, it’s not like you are limiting yourself too much. And you have to start seven WRs, RBs and TEs – there might not be seven with good games across the entire scope of fantasy on a day like today. Might as well increase your odds as best you can.