Fantasy Football WR Target Projections: Value Volume for Week 6

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Figuring out the top-end guys is relatively easy – see my top WR Target Projections here. The low-end wideouts are much harder – and more valuable. Each week, I’ll discuss five wide receivers under $5,000 on the DK main slate who I project for at least five targets.

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1. Marvin Jones, $4,600: Lions

With Golden Tate operating cleanly out of the slot, Jones has been drawing the more difficult matchups outside all season. He’s seen a lot of Patrick Peterson, Janoris Jenkins, Desmond Trufant and Xavier Rhodes. Despite the rough road, Jones has still garnered 5.2 targets per game from Matthew Stafford. So Jones should be thrilled to finally get into a matchup where everyone has an advantage as the Lions play in the Superdome Sunday. He’ll be out there for roughly 95 percent of the snaps – just as he has all season – and running routes at a broken pass defense which is 28th in pass yards allowed per game this year, was dead last in 2016 and was 31st in 2015.

Projection: Seven Targets


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2. John Brown, $4,500: Cardinals

We saw very encouraging signs from John Brown in Week 5 as he out-snapped Jaron Brown 48-36 and garnered seven targets for the second straight game. John is still on the injury report due to his lingering quad issue, but it appears he’s inching closer and closer to 100 percent while simultaneously earning back the trust of the coaching staff. So if John Brown is going to play on 80+ percent of the snaps this week in a home game against the Bucs, he’ll be a high-ceiling play at just $4,500. The Bucs are 27th in pass defense DVOA and have given up the most fantasy points to wide receivers by a wide margin – despite facing Mike Glennon, Case Keenum and Eli Manning in three of their four games.

Projection: Seven Targets


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3. Ricardo Louis, $3,900: Browns

The great DeShone Kizer experiment is mercifully over as he was completing a pathetic 50.5 percent of his passes with three TDs and nine INTs for a 49.5 passer rating. Kevin Hogan, a 2016 fifth-round pick out of Stanford, will step in and instantly make this passing game more reliable. Meanwhile, the 6’2/215 with 4.43 wheels Ricardo Louis has entered a featured role with Kenny Britt (knee) in the doghouse/hobbled and Corey Coleman (hand) out. Louis has played on 78.9 percent of the snaps over the last three weeks, seeing 23 targets during that span. A Texans pass defense which lost CB A.J. Bouye in free agency and lost CB Kevin Johnson to injury isn’t one to fear. Especially with J.J. Watt (leg) not there to put pressure on the quarterback.

Projection: Six Targets


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4. Jamison Crowder, $4,000: Redskins

We have a squeaky wheel situation in Washington, where Jamison Crowder is coming off a one-target game and is averaging just 4.7 per game on the season. Last year, Crowder saw 6.1 targets per game. “I think you’ll see more of Jamison Crowder, hopefully,” coach Jay Gruden said this week. “He is one of our best skill players. We have got to get him more involved in the offense. That is partly my fault, to get more balls targeted for him.” A perfect time to get Crowder going is now as the Redskins come off a bye to face a 49ers team coming across the country for a 1 PM EST start off back-to-back overtime games. The Niners start three of PFF’s worst 11 corners in Dontae Johnson (No. 108 of 109 qualifiers), Rashard Robinson (No. 104) and K’Waun Williams (No. 99).

Projection: Six Targets


5. Taylor Gabriel, $4,600: Falcons

Mohamed Sanu (hamstring) is not expected to play Sunday, opening up a significant role in one of the league’s premier passing offenses. Sanu was playing on 82.7 percent of the snaps and seeing 7.0 targets per game in his three healthy ones this season. I’m not certain the 5’8/165 Gabriel will necessarily step right into Sanu’s role, as he’s more of a gadget player and big-play threat. We’ll likely see 2015 fourth-rounder Justin Hardy handle a lot of the dirty work. But there’s still extra room for Gabriel, who saw 13 targets in the first three weeks of the season anyway. The chances of Gabriel being able to break a big play increase this week in a home game against a talent-deficient Dolphins secondary which is currently 29th DVOA vs. the pass.

Projection: Five Targets

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is adamlevitan) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.