This is a weekly series where I break down my favorite weekly tournament plays. I’m going to be focusing on high-upside, likely low-owned plays and stacks from the main Sunday slate that (hopefully) can pay off big for you in a large-field tournament.
Jimmy Garoppolo ($6,200) – JuJu Smith Schuster ($6,900) – George Kittle ($5,600)
Kittle is a whopping $1,200 cheaper than he was last week after he caught just three balls in a blowout win against the Bengals. Even if the Steelers improve with Minkah Fitzpatrick at safety, their scheme still allowed lead-footed Will Dissley ($3,400) to catch five receptions and two touchdowns last week, making this a monster spot for Kittle. Likewise, the Steelers’ rush defense, which has allowed only 4.0 yards per carry thus far on the season, could funnel more passing work to Garoppolo, who bounced back in a major way Week 2 with three scores and 297 yards on just 25 passes. Jimmy G also could be passing more this week due to the matchup for the Steelers’ top WR, Smith-Schuster.
The 49ers’ secondary was sixth worst in coverage against slot receivers last year and have continued that trend this year, allowing Tyler Boyd ($6,500) to massacre them last week for 10 receptions and 110 yards (also had a TD called back). JuJu’s $600 cheaper than last week but saw seven targets in the second half alone from new QB Mason Rudolph ($4,800). Despite the mediocre game total (44 as of writing), there’s shootout potential given the matchups for the star players on both sides, making this an interesting contrarian stack for Week 3.
Just Missed: With lots of people focused on KC and Baltimore, targeting the immense upside duo of Deshaun Watson ($6,400) – DeAndre Hopkins ($7,800) against the Chargers could be fruitful. The Chargers have allowed opposing teams’ WR1s to convert 16 of 19 targets for three TDs thus far.
Daniel Jones ($5,000)
The Tampa Bay defense has held up pretty well through two games, but its secondary is still one of the weakest in the league and its defensive line has the sixth worst adjusted sack rate in the league as well. Rookie Daniel Jones might be getting back Sterling Shepard for this week’s game and still has the ultra-talented TE/slot receiver Evan Engram ($5,200) and Saquon Barkley ($9,100) as weapons. Jones also brings a bit of rushing upside as he averaged 37 yards rushing per game in college and could be good for at least a few rush attempts in his first game. TB-NYG has one of the highest game totals on this slate (48 as of writing) with Jones likely to be in a pass-heavy mode as the Giants enter as 6.5-point road underdogs. Jones might not be the next Patrick Mahomes, but he has enough upside here to warrant consideration in big GPPs for Week 3, especially at his price.
Just Missed: Former college standout Mason Rudolph ($4,800) is in a similar situation to Jones this week, although he does have a tougher matchup against SF’s revamped front-seven and doesn’t carry the rushing upside Jones does, making him a slightly bigger bust candidate.
Devonta Freeman ($4,900)
Freeman has started the season slow but could be in line for a big Week 3. Atlanta’s coming off a win, but a win that included QB Matt Ryan ($5,700) throwing three interceptions. More importantly, though, Atlanta will be going up against the Colts, who have proven to be one of the weaker rush defenses in the league thus far. Indianapolis has given up an obscene 5.5 yards per carry thus far on the year, and it also has yielded the third most fantasy points per game to opposing RBs with four TDs to the position (two rush, two receiving). The Colts and Atlanta have a close game spread (Colts are 2-point favorites as of writing), meaning it’s unlikely Freeman gets game-flowed out of a high workload here. I’d look for the Falcons to push Freeman in this spot, which could make him a big fantasy producer in Week 3 at his sub-$5K price.
Just Missed: The Broncos’ Royce Freeman ($4,400) has vastly out-produced his back-mate this year, as he enters this week with a 5.2 yards per carry average and is coming off a game where he caught five of seven targets for 9.5 yards per reception. It’s possible his workload grows in Week 3 in a must-win game for Denver.
Christian Kirk ($5,000)
I highlighted Kirk in my stack last week and he produced 6 catches for 114 yards on eight targets. Kirk is averaging 10 targets per game in 2019 and has played virtually every snap for Arizona this year while running more than 75% of his snaps from the slot. His opponent this week, the Panthers, just allowed fellow slot receiver Chris Godwin ($6,900) to post eight catches, 121 yards and a TD against them last week. Despite some issues in the red zone, the Cardinals’ pass-catchers remain a group you want to target every week, considering Arizona has the second fastest pace of play through two weeks and has run pass plays on 75% of its snaps thus far (second-highest in the league). Kirk’s $5,000 price remains far too cheap, and in a plus matchup, he’s got big-time upside again for Week 3.
Just Missed: The Chiefs’ WRs are all in play for DFS this week against a depleted Ravens secondary. Sammy Watkins ($6,800) might have low sentiment after semi-busting last week. Curtis Samuel ($4,800) has a great matchup against the fast-paced Cardinals, and if QB Kyle Allen ($4,000) starts, that would be an upgrade after what we saw from Cam Newton (questionable, foot) last week.
O.J. Howard ($3,800)
TE is stacked this week with great matchups and some decent value, but Howard sticks out to me as the biggest GPP leverage out there. Howard has been a huge disappointment so far, recording just four catches on five targets in Week 1 before getting zero targets in Week 2. The third-year player hasn’t necessarily taken a backseat to Cameron Brate ($2,700), as Howard has been on the field for 86% of the team’s offensive snaps thus far, but his production has faltered, nonetheless. Head coach Bruce Arians said he’s not worried about it and the targets “will come,” which likely means we shouldn’t be too down on Howard at this point despite the slow start. The Giants’ weak linebacking crew already have yielded two TDs to the position and now take on the talented Howard this week. The potential is out there for OJ to post a “slate-breaking” type of game here in Week 3 at a price $1,200 cheaper than his Week 1 salary.
Just Missed: Like I said, TE is stacked this week. Evan Engram ($5,200) has seen 22 targets through two games and now gets a Bucs defense that just allowed a banged-up 34-year-old to post six catches and 110 yards last week. George Kittle ($5,600) is also in a great spot, taking on Pittsburgh, which ceded two TDs last week to Seattle’s skeleton TE crew.
Packers ($3,400): It’s tempting to pay all the way up this week at DST for matchups against Miami or the Jets, but Green Bay offers plenty of upside, too. The Broncos’ offensive line enters this week having yielded five sacks in two homes games and now faces the Packers, whose defensive line enters this game with the 11th best adjusted sack rate in the league. Stone-footed Joe Flacco ($4,600) could find himself on his back quite a bit this week as the Packers enter this game as 7.5-point favorites. It’s a good spot to deploy the Packers at DST if you have the cash against a weak QB and offensive line.
Lions ($2,200): Despite yielding just four sacks thus far on the year, the Eagles’ o-line hasn’t been great in pass protection, yielding the sixth-worst adjusted sack rate in the league. Detroit’s improved defensive line, including the likes of Trey Flowers, already has recorded six sacks of its own in 2019 and is in a good spot here to get pressure on the banged-up Carson Wentz ($5,600). Given the Eagles’ horrendous secondary, you could see a lot of passing from Wentz, who likely will be without his top-two WRs for this game. It’s a great spot for the cheap Lions to potentially record a big game for fantasy purposes.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.