The concept behind stacking a QB with his WR is simple: both players benefit from each completion, doubling the benefit of that play for your fantasy lineup. As Adam Levitan pointed out this offseason, 79 percent of the lineups that won DraftKings’ Fantasy Football Millionaire contests used a QB stack in their lineup. With the significance of stacking in mind, this article aims to highlight the best stacking options for Sunday’s main slate.
5. Case Keenum ($5,200)/Courtland Sutton ($4,500), DEN at SFSince the Broncos traded away Demaryius Thomas, the passing game has revolved almost exclusively around Emmanuel Sanders (Achilles), Sutton and TE Jeff Heuerman (ribs). Those three each held target shares between 18 and 25 percent, while no other player saw more than seven percent. Well, now Sanders and Heuerman are both out for the rest of the season. Sutton is in line for a gigantic target share, yet he’s priced deep into the wide flat morass of flex-level wide receivers.
The 49ers are a favorable matchup for WRs, and WRs who have seen at least eight targets against them are averaging 20.5 DKFP. Keenum is not the main attraction here, but he’s thrown at least one TD in seven of his last eight games and the 49ers have allowed the third-most pass TDs this season. As one of the cheapest starting QBs available, he provides a ton of savings, and he’ll provide positive value as long as he matches his season average against a favorable opponent.
4. Aaron Rodgers ($6,000)/Davante Adams ($8,400), GB vs. ATLThis is a pretty straightforward pick. Rodgers and Adams are (very) good. Their salaries are slightly below what I expected. The Falcons’ defense is (very) bad.
The Falcons have allowed nine opposing QBs to top 20 DKFP, and four of the five WRs to see at least eight targets finished with more than 24 DKFP. That WR threshold is particularly important here since Adams is seeing more targets than ever lately — over the last three games, Adams has seen 31 percent of the Packers’ targets.
3. Philip Rivers ($6,500)/Mike Williams ($3,900), LAC vs. CINI’m still hashtag TeamBuccaneers in the debate for the worst defense of 2018, but the Bengals are putting together a fantastic resume in their late-season push for contention. The Bengals have surpassed the Bucs for dead last in yards and points allowed, and they’ve fallen into the bottom five in defensive DVOA.
Ryan Tannehill ($4,800), Case Keenum, and half-a-game of Jameis Winston ($6,200). Those are the only three starting QBs who failed to put up at least 19 DKFP against the Bengals – and Ryan Fitzpatrick topped that threshold in just the second half after Winston was pulled in Week 8. Eight of 12 starting QBs to face the Bengals scored more than 23 DKFP. Eight QBs have thrown multiple TDs against them, and five have topped 300 yards. Winston threw four picks in his half-game, but the Bengals have only seven INTs across the other 11-and-a-half games. Rivers has thrown multiple TDs in every game this season, and he’s seventh in the league in passing yards.
In eight of their 12 games, the Bengals have allowed multiple pass-catchers (at least four receptions) to reach double-digit DKFP. Not only is this defense giving up a ton of yards and points, but this unit is allowing opponents to spread the ball around and produce multiple positive fantasy producers. That’s important for this Week 14 matchup since Keenan Allen ($7,400) is borderline overpriced — Allen’s a great play for cash games, but his salary limits his GPP upside.
Williams has still not lived up to his seventh overall selection in the 2017 draft, but he’s shown a few flashes of excellence and he’s seen a stable helping of three or four targets in eight of the Chargers’ last nine games. That target share has maintained while Tyrell Williams’ ($4,600) workload has fallen off a cliff. It’s highly likely that one of the two Williams will have an excellent game, and I’m guessing it’s Mike based on his pedigree and the last few games. If I had more confidence that I’d selected the right Williams, this would be my No. 1 stack of the week.
2. Drew Brees ($6,600)/Michael Thomas ($8,600), NO at TBThe Buccaneers have held three of their last four opponents to 17 points or fewer. Maybe I’m just being bullheaded, but I don’t buy it for a second. The Redskins were without their top two WRs and Chris Thompson, who led the team in target share at that time. The 49ers were on their third QB and were playing without their top two WRs. Cam Newton threw four interceptions, three of which were deep inside Buccaneer territory. The Buccaneers have been lucky, their schedule has been easy, and the defense is still terrible.
During this stretch, at least one WR per week has scored double-digit DKFP, and both Newton and Nick Mullens ($4,600) posted profitable fantasy lines. They’re still in the bottom three in defensive DVOA and points allowed per game. And back before a shipping container full of horseshoes was delivered to their stadium, the Buccaneers allowed a 40 DKFP stack in each of their first eight-game — each QB and at least one WR scored 19.7-plus DKFP.
As for Brees and Thomas, you may have heard this before, but they’re pretty good. Brees currently has the highest QB Rating in NFL history, while Thomas has the highest catch percentage since the NFL started tracking targets in 1992. Thomas sees 27 percent of the Saints’ targets, and Keith Kirkwood ($3,500) is the only other WR to see multiple targets in each of the last three games. Thomas is sixth in DKFP per game among WRs. It’s an expensive stack, but the difference in skills between Brees-Thomas and the Bucs defense is too extreme to ignore. Last time these two faced off, this Saints stack combined to score a whopping 76.56 DKFP.
1. Cam Newton ($6,300)/D.J. Moore ($5,700), CAR at CLEAs bad as Week 13 was for Panthers fans, that’s how good it was for fantasy managers trying to evaluate Cam Newton. In one of the worst games of his career, when he threw four INTs and posted his lowest passer rating of the season, fantasy lineups emerged completely unscathed. He still finished with 22.3 DKFP. Newton has been a fantasy cheat code this season. In every game he’s provided at least 2.5X value, frequently considered the baseline for cash games profitability — and he’s topped 21 DKFP and 3X value in nine games. The Browns defense is pretty good, but they’re still allowing 20.5 DKFP to QBs per game, a little more than league average.
As for Moore, he’s a No. 1 WR without the No. 1 price tag. He’s averaging 5.7 catches on 8.3 targets for 97.3 yards over his last three games. If those were his averages over the entire season, he’d be second in the league in receiving yards and 17th in targets.
I’m not saying Moore is the second-best WR in the league, I’m just saying he’s a lot more valuable than his salary. Furthermore, the strength of the Browns’ defense is their run-stopping, and they’ve allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to WRs. This is a good matchup for a high-volume receiver. Curtis Samuel ($4,000) is also a good value, though even accounting for the discount, I’d rather roster Moore.
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