Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: NFL DraftKings Breakdown For Week 16

With the dust settling on Week 15, we now turn our attention to Week 16 with a 12-game main slate. Let’s jump right into the all the information you’ll need for this week and make sure to be watching @DKLive for the latest news and track your fantasy team on the DKLive app. As always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine as well, @SBuchanan24.


Game Notes

Highest Scoring Game

LAR vs. ARI – 47.5 points
Overall, Week 15 doesn’t have many high projected scoring games, as evidenced by the Rams and Cardinals opening at 47.5. I must say, I was a bit surprised to see this game as high as it was with a Cardinals (+13.5) team that enters this week averaging just 13.7 points per game, the lowest in the league. In fact, it’s been even worse over the past three weeks, as that number drops to 12.3. Both teams have been poor in the over/under this season, with the Rams at 6-7-1 and the Cardinals 6-8. As you’d imagine, the Rams are massive favorites in this against such a poor Cardinals team.

In terms of fantasy plays, I don’t think I need to mention that Todd Gurley ($9,200) is in a fantastic matchup. Aside from being huge favorites, the Cardinals defense against the run has been downright putrid. The Cardinals have allowed an average of 127 rushing yards per game and 29.5 DKFP. In fact, they’ve allowed over 100 rushing yards 10 (!) times this season with 17 rushing touchdowns, which leads the league. The one concern I do have here is if they’ll elect to rest Gurley a bit in this game. He did injure his knee in Week 15, and in a game they should win easily, we could see a bit more of John Kelly ($4,000), who is the healthiest of the running backs, or Justin Davis ($3,000). To be perfectly honest, I’m going to really contemplate rostering Gurley this week because of injury and potential blowout factor. Being the most expensive player on the slate, I think it’s something worth considering.

Lowest Scoring Game

JAX vs. MIN – 39.5 points
Nothing gets me excited for fantasy football like an epic clash of the Jaguars and Dolphins (-4.5). As the lowest projected total on this slate, the appeal here is certainly limited. With the Dolphins favored, they’ve been a good team against the spread, going 8-6 on the year. However, both teams have been average at best with the over/under, with the Dolphins at 7-7 and the Jaguars at 6-8.

It’s REALLY hard to get excited about anybody in this game. On the surface, you’d think it would be a great spot for Leonard Fournette ($6,000) against a poor Dolphins run defense. First and foremost, he drops $1,500 in salary from Week 15 but that’s thanks in part to his 9.4-DKFP performance against the Redskins, carrying the ball 11 times for 46 yards while catching three balls for 18 yards. It’s being said that he’s dealing with a foot injury and the team also wanted to see Dave Williams ($3,000) get some carries as well. Like the Gurley situation, it’s one I could be inclined to stay away from, although the $6K salary is much easier to work with than the $9,200 of Gurley. In terms of receivers, not really interested in anyone from either side, although one could make an argument for Dede Westbrook ($4,900) playing the majority of his snaps out of the slot and taking punt returns.


DvP Matchups

Worst QB Matchups

New England Patriots, Buffalo Bills, 1st
San Francisco 49ers, Chicago Bears, 2nd
Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, 4th

Best QB Matchups

Cleveland Browns, Cincinnati Bengals, 32nd
Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons, 31st
Dallas Cowboys, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 29th


Worst RB Matchups

San Francisco 49ers, Chicago Bears, 3rd
Pittsburgh Steelers, New Orleans Saints, 4th
New Orleans Saints, Pittsburgh Steelers, 5th

Best RB Matchups

Cleveland Browns, Cincinnati Bengals, 32nd
Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons, 31st
Los Angeles Rams, Arizona Cardinals, 29th


Worst WR Matchups

Miami Dolphins, Jacksonville Jaguars, 1st
Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, 2nd
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Dallas Cowboys, 3rd

Best WR Matchups

Pittsburgh Steelers, New Orleans Saints, 32nd
Green Bay Packers, New York Jets, 31st
Houston Texans, Philadelphia Eagles, 30th


Worst TE Matchups

Green Bay Packers, New York Jets, 1st
New England Patriots, Buffalo Bills, 3rd
Carolina Panthers, Arizona Cardinals, 4th

Best TE Matchups

Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers, 30th
Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, 29th
New Orleans Saints, Pittsburgh Steelers, 28th


Target Report

Last Week’s Leaders

NameTeamLast Week’s OPPTargets
Davante AdamsGBCHI13
Josh ReynoldsLARPHI12
Robby AndersonNYJHOU11
Julian EdelmanNEPIT11
DeAndre HopkinsHOUNYJ11
JuJu Smith-SchusterPITNE10
Michael ThomasNOCAR9
Sterling ShepardNYGTEN9
Robert WoodsLARPHI9
Mike EvansTBBAL9

Last 3 Weeks Leaders

NameTeamTargets Past 3 WeeksAvg Targets
Davante AdamsGB3710.8
T.Y. HiltonIND338.8
DeAndre HopkinsHOU339.6
Julian EdelmanNE319.2
JuJu Smith-SchusterPIT3110.2
Michael ThomasNO309.1
Robert WoodsLAR308.6
Christian McCaffreyCAR28
Amari CooperDAL287
Julio JonesATL2710.9


Lineup Quick Hits

QB To Build Lineups Around…

Deshaun Watson, HOU vs. PHI ($6,600) – I was off Watson for the majority of the season as his pass attempts weren’t really lining up with his salaries. Between weeks 6-12, he didn’t have more than 24 pass attempts. However, over his last three games, he’s averaging 32 and has a cake matchup against the Eagles. We all know how poor this Eagles secondary has been and now they have to face Watson and his No. 1 target DeAndre Hopkins (more on him in a moment). It’s an expensive stack, one that will take up a whopping 30 percent of your salary, but I think we have another week where the wide receiver position has a lot of value to look into to help balance your roster out. Entering this week, the Eagles are allowing an average of 298 passing yards and 20.6 DKFP on the season.

WR To Pair Him With…

DeAndre Hopkins, HOU vs. PHI ($8,600) – Hopkins is the second most expensive receiver on the slate to Julio Jones ($8,700). He’s coming off his best performance of the season against the Jets, scoring 42 DKFP with 10 catches for 170 yards and two touchdowns. Now, he draws a very similar matchup against the Eagles, who allow an average of 198 receiving yards and 43.7 DKFP on the season. The Eagles, as you’d imagine, have been ripped by opposing WR1, allowing an average of 93.5 YPG, which ranks as the highest in the league. For comparison, the Rams are second in the league at 84.8 YPG. Despite the high salary for this stack, it should be a spot that pays off against an Eagles team that is still fighting for their playoff lives.

The Top RB Will Be…

Saquon Barkley, NYG at IND ($7,900) – Oh, hello Mr. Salary Drop, it’s nice to meet you. Barkley receives a MASSIVE $1,500 drop from last week’s 9.6 DKFP dud against the Titans. At $7,900, he feels too cheap to ignore especially against this Colts run defense. Against the run, they’ve been good. Opposing backs have rushed over 100 yards twice and average just 86 per game. Where they fall apart is in the passing game, an area Barkley flourishes. The Colts allow an average of 53 passing yards to opposing backs with three touchdowns scored. While Barkley likely won’t see another 10 targets as he did last week, especially if Odell Beckham Jr. ($7,600) returns, his 7.6 targets per game is healthy enough to sustain. I’m not going to overthink this one and get Barkley in my lineup at such a huge discount.


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.