Just call me Mr. 2-3, as I had my third consecutive week with that record, bringing my season record to 8-12 overall. It is put up or shut up time here for me. Here are the Week 5 picks:
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds are subject to change.
XFL Week 5
Defenders +4.5 vs. BattleHawks (-110)If there is one thing we should know by now about the XFL, it is the dominance of home teams. Home teams are 11-5 on the year, including 10-6 against the spread. When in doubt, it has been extremely profitable to bet on home teams this year. The Defenders are both home and underdogs to the BattleHawks, who continue to run the ball heavily and make sub-optimal decisions that give opposing teams a chance to cover. Just a few weeks ago we were talking about D.C. as one of the best teams in the league, but they have looked awful in their last two (road) games. This feels like a value spot to buy back in now that they are home again.
Dragons +12.5 at Roughnecks (-110)This really all comes down to the quarterback play for Seattle. Last week, the Dragons trailed the BattleHawks 17-3 at halftime before making a QB change to B.J. Daniels. The team was ignited, winning the second half 13-6. Jim Zorn has yet to say exactly what his plan is at QB for Week 5, but one would have to assume this is Daniels’ job at this juncture. And as good as Houston has been, this is a huge number to cover if the opposing offense is moving the ball. It takes some trusting of Zorn here to do the rational thing, but 12.5 points is too many for Seattle to be getting here.
Guardians and Renegades UNDER 37 points (-109)This game features two teams starting backup-caliber QBs who have hit the under each week of the XFL season. Need I say more? The total reflects that at such a low number, but I still don’t think these teams get there. Dallas is almost sure to hide Philip Nelson behind their outstanding two-headed backfield, and while Luis Perez looked way better than Matt McGloin last week, he still only led New York to 17 points at home.
Vipers and Wildcats OVER 40 points (-110)The Vipers are coming off of an impressive shutout against the Defenders, while the Wildcats struggled in a bad loss to the Guardians. Both of these things have the public assuming points will be difficult to come by in this matchup. The reality is that both of these teams can score. Tampa Bay has completely changed their offense, relying on running backs De’Veon Smith and Jacques Patrick to do most of the damage, but they can still make explosive plays in the passing game. The Wildcats boast one of the best QBs in the league in Josh Johnson, who went over 300 yards with two touchdowns in another excellent performance. I’m expecting some back and forth here, with the potential for a true shootout.
Wildcats -2.5 vs. Vipers (-110)In addition to the game’s scoring potential, I like the Wildcats’ side of the spread. We are again taking a home team that is coming off of a poor performance, and again just a few weeks ago they looked like one of the best teams in the league. Tampa Bay has played way better, but have been on a red-zone roller coaster this year. They converted none of their red-zone trips the first two weeks for scores, but have upped that to 63% the past two games. The reality likely lies somewhere in the middle, and it leads to the Vipers being a relatively average football team. I believe L.A. still has top-tier team potential.
Weekly ResultsWeek 1: 2-2
Week 2: 2-3
Week 3: 2-3
Week 4: 2-3
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