The cold streak continued in Week 3, going 2-3 in the picks to fall to 6-8 on the year. Hopefully we can get going here in Week 4, a betting platter that has a bunch of interesting spots and lines to bet. The only thing that worries me is that I like the road teams! Let’s dive in.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
XFL Week 4
LA Wildcats -7.5 at NY Guardians (-110)The Wildcats had a massive coming out party on Sunday night, blowing out the XFL-favorite Defenders 39-9. Josh Johnson looked every bit the part of a premier player in this league, while they also found some life out of the backfield in Martez Carter. New York, meanwhile, is likely the worst team in the league, losing to the BattleHawks while going through three different quarterbacks. There is no word yet on who will start for the Guardians in Week 4, but it probably does not matter a ton. The Wildcats are clearly the better football team, and should win convincingly.
Seattle Dragons +11 at St. Louis BattleHawks (-110)The BattleHawks beat New York, but their run-heavy attack made it difficult to cover, and will continue to do so in most weeks. They won by only 20 points against the Guardians despite returning a kick for a touchdown, and having multiple trips into the red-zone. Seattle is much better on offense than New York is, averaging 5.3 more points and 46.4 more yards. They also allow 34 less yards per game on the ground, which is the obvious forte of the BattleHawks. St. Louis has the better team here, but 11 points is too many.
Houston Roughnecks -2 at Dallas Renegades (-109)Houston had a little bit of a close call covering against Tampa Bay last week, but they continue to have the most impressive offense in the league, bolstered by current runaway MVP P.J. Walker. The Roughnecks have scored 99 points this year, 25 more than the next-closest team (Wildcats). Dallas has actually performed as the best defensive team in the league, allowing just 15 points per game, but it is worth nothing the strength of their schedule. Having opened up with the BattleHawks (run-heavy), Wildcats (first game with Josh Johnson), and Dragons (stink), they have not been pushed yet defensively. This game will likely be close, but I expect the Roughnecks to prevail. This spread is small enough where I don’t mind laying the two points instead of ripping the money line.
DC Defenders -2.5 at Tampa Bay Vipers (-110)This is your overreaction line of the week. After opening as UNDERDOGS, the Defenders have now moved to being meager 2.5-point favorites against the lowly Vipers. Why is this? Tampa Bay looked good last week, losing what was an exciting and close game to the Roughnecks, while D.C. got blown out, looking the worst they have all year. The Defenders are still likely one of the three best teams in the XFL, and are particularly strong on defense. The Vipers will be without Quinton Flowers, who is away from the team for personal reasons. That will make them much easier to game plan for, even with Aaron Murray back in the fold. I’m expecting the Defenders to bounce back in a big way in this spot. With the line constantly moving more and more towards D.C., you will want to get in on this earlier rather than later.
Roughnecks and Renegades OVER 50.5 (-110)The XFL has featured mostly unders to start the year, but Houston games have managed to go over the total every week so far. Not only do they play fantastic offense, but their defense leaves a lot to be desired. They are allowing just 1.6 less yards per game than the leader, New York, and just gave up 27 points to a Vipers team that hadn’t scored an offensive touchdown all year. Dallas has been much better on offense since getting Landry Jones back. Both of these teams throw the ball at 70% clips, the two highest rates in the league. This should be an air show worth watching, and hopefully one of the best games of the year. Expect there to be scoring, and lots of it on Sunday afternoon.
Weekly ResultsWeek 1: 2-2
Week 2: 2-3
Week 3: 2-3
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