After a wild four-game slate on Wild Card weekend, the top seeds are coming off their byes and give us an even tougher slate to breakdown. Here are some targets to consider at each position on DraftKings.
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All lines and odds are provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.
PLAYS TO CONSIDER
Lamar Jackson, BAL vs. TEN ($8,400)
Jackson hit $8,000 in his last regular season game, and is now the most expensive he’s been all season for a four-game playoff slate. It’s really not an ideal time to roster him for this much salary, but he’s averaging 31.3 DKFP in home games this season. The Titans should try and control the clock by running the ball, which could also limit Jackson’s possessions. His ceiling is scary to fade, but rostering Jackson also involves a lot of sacrifice at other positions.
Patrick Mahomes, KC vs. HOU ($7,500)
Mahomes is the ideal target on this slate. The Chiefs are at home, and face the worst defense — Houston gave up the second-most DKFP to QB this season. He’s one of the safest plays on the slate, but after what we saw from Drew Brees last week, take that with a grain of salt.
Jimmy Garoppolo, SF vs. MIN ($5,600)
Jimmy G finally gets to prove himself on the big stage. The Vikings looked spectacular in New Orleans, but we’ll see if they can repeat that performance in San Francisco with one of the worst secondaries in football. The Niners will have to make some big plays through the air to win this game.
Other value options: Kirk Cousins ($5,700)
Derrick Henry, TEN at BAL ($8,200)
The potential game script in Baltimore is scary. The Ravens have been favored by double-digits at times this week, which could phase Henry out. However, Tennessee is committed to winning by pounding the rock with Henry, which is evident by his 66 carries in the last two games — essentially both playoff games for the Titans. He’s rushed for 393 yards and four touchdowns in those two games. It just looks like Henry can plow his way through any defense for five yards a carry right now.
Aaron Jones, GB vs. SEA ($7,400)
Dalvin Cook ($8,000) was clearly a massive focal point of Minnesota’s offense in New Orleans. His 28-94-2 line was good for 28 DKFP. The matchup gets tougher this week, though, which puts me on Jones. Jones should be fresh off a bye, and is at home against a much worse run defense — Seattle ranks 22nd in DKFP allowed to RB. He’s run for 100-plus yards in three of his last four, and has a great chance to do so again.
Damian Williams, KC vs. HOU ($6,000)
Williams has emerged as the featured RB in the Chiefs’ backfield. Since returning in Week 16, Williams has 35 touches for 246 yards and three touchdowns — an average of 26.3 DKFP. Houston ranks 27th in DKFP allowed to RB, and saw Williams only get two touches in their matchup earlier this season, so Houston doesn’t have much experience against him — although one of those touches did go for a score.
Other value options: Raheem Mostert ($5,800), Carlos Hyde ($5,000), Marshawn Lynch ($4,800) Duke Johnson ($4,700)
Davante Adams, GB vs. SEA ($7,800)
Watch out for the weather in this one, as snow and wind could make Aaron Jones an even stronger play, and take away from the passing game. But assuming the conditions aren’t too extreme, Adams will continue to see a ton of volume in the passing game. Adams has been targeted at least 13 times in three straight games, scoring at least 22 DKFP in each. Seattle ranks right around average against WR this season.
Tyreek Hill, KC vs. HOU ($7,600)
Hill returned from a month-long injury in Week 6 against Houston and burned them for two touchdowns, finishing with 25 DKFP. While it came in a loss, Kansas City knows it can find Hill down the field against this defense. The Texans defense has only gotten worse as the season progressed, while the Chiefs have gotten back on track.
Deebo Samuel, SF vs. MIN ($5,200)
Samuel has really emerged as the 49ers’ WR1. Since Week 10, Samuel is averaging 17.2 DKFP, and he is coming off his best game of the season in Week 17. The rookie caught five passes for 102 yards against Seattle, also rushing for a touchdown (27.5 DKFP). The Vikings rank 26th in DKFP allowed to WR.
Other value options: Stefon Diggs ($5,600), Allen Lazard ($4,500), Marquise Brown ($4,400), Sammy Watkins ($4,300), David Moore ($3,900), Corey Davis ($3,700)
George Kittle, SF vs. MIN ($6,200)
As good as Samuel has been, Kittle’s still the clear-cut go-to guy in this offense. I lean towards rostering him for $200 less than Travis Kelce ($6,400), but we’re really splitting hairs. Kelce has the better matchup, and both have been equally consistent. Either is a fine cash game option, and you’ll want exposure to both if you’re building multiple lineups.
Jonnu Smith, TEN at BAL ($3,400)
The value is rough at TE on this slate. Smith has a rough matchup, but Tennessee may have to sling it some if it falls in a hole. Smith played a role in the Titans’ playoff run, catching 11-of-13 targets for 152 yards and two touchdowns in Weeks 14-16, along with a 57 yard carry — averaging 14.6 DKFP per game.
Other value options: Kyle Rudolph ($3,400), Jimmy Graham ($3,300)
Chiefs DST vs. HOU ($3,200)
I’m buying into the Chiefs’ turnaround on defense this season, scoring at least 8.0 DKFP in every game since Week 11. This DST is averaging 12.5 DKFP during that span, and Houston showed a lot of holes in the wild card round.
Vikings DST at SF ($2,700)
Defense is as tough a position to gage as any on this slate. Minnesota has a solid defense that was obviously well coached in the win over the Saints. It averages 8.4 DKFP on the road this season, so this is a viable value, even if you think SF wins.
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