Derrick Henry

Did you guys get into the playoffs? If you’re a Tyler Lockett, Hunter Henry or Jonathan Williams owner and you needed a win this week to get into the playoffs, I’ll be the first to say, sorry. BUT, the show must go on, and as always, we must trek through the trenches and project which tailbacks will get the touches and targets in their matchups necessary for us to succeed. Enough postulating and posturing (and enough alliterations), let’s get to it.




STUDS

Derrick Henry, TEN at OAK, $8,200

I guess it’s come to this, Derrick Henry is the third most expensive back and he’s still going to be worth it this week. Henry and the Titans have improved on offense ever since Ryan Tannehill has taken over play-calling duties averaging 30 points per game since Week 7. He, Henry and the entire offense shouldn’t have any issues against a Raiders team that’s given up 74 points over their last two games and ranks 26th in defensive rush DVOA. Over Henry’s last three games, he’s rushed for close to 500 yards and five touchdowns. Click.

Projections

Rushing: 21 attempts
Receiving: 2 Targets; 1 Receptions
Total: 22 Touches


Nick Chubb, CLE v. CIN, $8,000

Kareem Hunt ($6,600) is an integral part of the Browns’ offense, but not enough to scare me away from Chubb, who’s coming off his worst game of the season. Chubb’s snaps have also decreased over the last three weeks with both he and hunt totaling 57% last week against Pittsburgh. Hunt will still be involved in the pass game, but has been priced too high to be a value averaging 14 DFKP per game on only an average of 11 touches, there may be some regression coming soon. Both RBs are viable, but Chubb should be nice GPP leverage play off of the chalky Derrick Henry ($8,200).

Projections

Rushing: 17 Attempts
Receiving: 2 Targets; 2 Receptions
Total: 19 Touches


James White, NE v. KC, $5,500

Finally. We finally saw a James White game last week and it only took three months. Yes, it was garbage time and yes, the Patriots’ offense looked bad, but should we expect a different game script when they host Kansas City? No. White rushed it a career high 14 times, was targeted 11 times (most since Week 8 of last season) and saw his highest snap count of the season playing on just over 78% of the offensive plays last week. Kansas City has shored up their secondary a touch but still gives up the most DKFP to the running back position. The O/U is currently set at 49, which should be one of the highest game totals on the slate this week. Chalk worth eating. Click.

Projections

Rushing: 8 Attempts
Receiving: 10 Targets; 9 Receptions
Total: 17 Touches


VALUES

Devonta Freeman, ATL v. CAR, $5,400

Freeman saw his second highest touch count last week, but the Saints were able to thwart any attempts at success for Atlanta’s backfield even though NO gave them every opportunity to come back recovering two late onside kicks. Last time Freeman saw this type of production was in Week 6 against Arizona, a game in which he totaled 26.8 DKFP. This is the type of production we should expect against a Carolina defense giving up the second most DKFP to the running back position and rank as the worst rush defense per DVOA coming into this week.

Projections

Rushing: 16 Attempts
Receiving: 4 Targets; 3 Receptions
Total: 19 Touches


The health status of both Williams’ is still up in the air and if they can’t go Thompson could be in line for an increased workload behind only LeSean McCoy ($4,400), who’s had his own set of injury issues throughout the season. The Patriots’ rush defense has been susceptible of late, giving up productive days to the Browns, Ravens and Cowboys respective backfields; we don’t need a ton from Darwin to return value if the volume play and should present the best option for Andy Reid and the Chiefs if they find themselves struggling in Foxboro. Projections are based on both Damien Williams and Darrel Williams not suiting up.

Projections

Rushing: 9 Attempts
Receiving: 5 Targets; 4 Receptions
Total: 13 Touches


Adrian Peterson, WSH at GB, $4,000

The “Ponce de Leon” of the NFL should keep his good play rolling this week against a Green Bay rush defense that’s allowed just four teams to rush for less than 100 yards on them this season. Guice ($4,900) had an impressive game last week sporting an astronomical 12.9 yards/attempt, which should come down even against a bad Packers rush defense. We should expect Washington to not overwork Guice this early into his return nor do they need to this season. The $900 savings with Peterson presents solid leverage if you’re looking to attack this matchup, but do want to pay up for Guice.

Projections

Rushing: 14 attempts
Receiving: 1 Targets; 1 Receptions
Total: 15 Touches




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