This is a weekly series where I break down my favorite tournament plays. I’m going to be focusing on high-upside, low-owned plays and stacks from the main Sunday slate that (hopefully) can really pay off big for you in a large field tournament.
Jared Goff ($6,200) – Robert Woods ($5,900) – Devonta Freeman ($5,700)
Jared Goff threw for just 78 yards last weekend, but the embattled QB gets the mother of all get-right spots in Week 7. The Falcons have given up the second-most DKFP per game to opposing QBs on the season, and have allowed an incredible eight passing touchdowns over the last two weeks. Atlanta’s defensive line now ranks dead last in adjusted sack-rate on the season, which means Goff should have time to get the ball downfield consistently in this game. Robert Woods is eighth in the NFL in targets this year, but he has somehow yet to catch a touchdown pass. He’ll be facing an Atlanta secondary that could be without Desmond Trufant again and has allowed 10 touchdowns to the position this season. On the flip side, the Rams acquiring Jalen Ramsey makes Julio Jones ($8,000) less of a sure thing, and he has been upstaged by RB Devonta Freeman of late. Freeman has 17 targets over his last three games, has a reasonable price tag and is going against a Rams defense that has allowed seven touchdowns to RBs this season. This game has loads of fantasy potential, but will likely be a popular one to target, so going with a slightly contrarian stack construction makes sense.
Just Missed: The Seahawks and Ravens have a point total of nearly 50. Russell Wilson ($6,600) – Tyler Lockett ($6,600) and Mark Andrews ($4,900) make an interesting way to attack this game, as Wilson has been at his best at home while Andrews could feast against a Seattle team that doesn’t guard against tight ends well.
Gardner Minshew II ($5,400)
With most people likely to be targeting QBs in the $6K range, Minshew could go overlooked this week. Even though he busted in our column last week, I’m still tempted enough to give Minshew one more shot here as a solid contrarian target. The Bengals will be without both of their starting cornerbacks this weekend and sit fourth to last in adjusted sack-rate as a defense. Despite being bottled up by a legitimate New Orleans defense last week, Minshew’s connection with D.J. Chark ($6,000) should continue to blossom in this matchup, and the rookie QB is still averaging over 20 yards rushing per game. With two hurting defenses, this game could devolve into more of a shootout than the current 44-point total suggests, which should allow Minshew to deliver on another big fantasy day.
Just Missed: The Giants Daniel Jones ($6,100) is in a bounce-back spot after facing two very tough opponents. Arizona plays at the fastest pace of any team in the league and allows the third-most DKFP per game to opposing QBs. Jones could also have both Evan Engram ($6,500) and Saquon Barkley ($8,900) back for this game which would only add to his upside.
Tevin Coleman ($5,600)
The 49ers have run the ball on 56% of their snaps this season, more than any team in the league. Despite missing some time with a high-ankle sprain, Tevin Coleman stepped right back into his lead role last week, leading all San Francisco RBs by playing on 43 of a possible 78 offensive snaps. The former Falcon is locked into the goal-line role and took six of the seven rushing attempts inside the red zone for the 49ers last week. The Redskins may not quite be the Dolphins on defense, but they are still giving up 4.6 yards per carry and 134 yards rushing per game. With the 49ers entering this week as 10-point favorites, Coleman should be set to see 15-plus touches again, and he could get a shot at multiple touchdowns, a feat he almost pulled off last week. Regardless, Coleman is a nice upside target at under $6K this week, and he brings serious upside for GPP lineups.
Just Missed: The Dolphins Kenyan Drake ($4,100) continued to rack up touches last week, taking 10 carries for 40 yards and catching six passes on nine targets. The skilled receiving back has over 60 touches now on the year, but no touchdowns. His continued low price and growing pass-catching role makes him a nice GPP target yet again this week.
T.Y. Hilton ($5,900)
It’ll be interesting to see how Hilton’s ownership pans out this week, as he’s dealt with some injuries this season and doesn’t have the same level of QB as he did in year’s past. Still, there’s plenty of reasons to be interested in Hilton in Week 7 against the Texans. This will be Hilton’s 15th game against Houston, and in his last 14, the 29-year-old has posted an insane 19.01 yards per reception. He’s also caught nine touchdowns while averaging over 100 yards receiving per game in those contests. Houston hasn’t upgraded their DB-crew much with 35-year-old Jonathan Joseph still patrolling their sidelines, and likely suffering from PTSD from past matchups with Hilton. T.Y. had been dealing with a thigh issue, but he still played 83% of the snaps in the Colts last game, and he is coming off a week of rest here. Even if the sentiment gets a little high, I love the sub-$6K price tag on a player that has caught 82% of his targets this year. He should be well-rested and ready to attack his favorite opponent yet again.
Just Missed: The Jaguars D.J. Chark ($6,000) will be going up against a Bengals secondary that will be missing its top two corners this week. This has massive game potential written all over it. Mike Williams ($4,600) of the Chargers has seen double-digit targets in each of his last two games. His breakout is likely coming soon.
Maxx Williams ($2,700)
Going cheap for TEs in GPPs is always a viable strategy given the sub-$3K pricing available, meaning this week Maxx Williams of the Cardinals looks like an extremely viable option. Arizona hasn’t been featuring a serious pass-catching threat at TE most of the year, but Williams (a former second-round pick) has been coming on of late, and he has now played over 55% of the snaps in each of the past two games. Williams increased snap rate has seen Charles Clay ($2,600) playing less, and the change has also shown up on the stat sheet, as Williams saw three targets last week (one went for a TD), the most for any Arizona tight end all season. In a game in which everyone expects to be targeting the expensive TE on the other side, Williams could end up paying off, as his low salary and increasing role in the offense gives him a shot at returning 4-to-5X value this week.
Just Missed: As mentioned above, the Ravens Mark Andrews ($4,900) is in a great spot Week 7, although his health will need to be monitored throughout the week. The Rams Gerald Everett ($3,700) has now out-targeted his counterpart Tyler Higbee ($2,900) in five straight games and makes for a nice upside play at a sub-$4K price.
New Orleans Saints ($2,900): The Saints’ defense has stepped up in a large way since Drew Brees went down, allowing 10 points or fewer points in two of their last three games, and they now sit seventh as a team in adjusted sack rate and sixth in total sacks. The Saints’ run defense has also been solid yet again in 2019, allowing zero 100-yard rushers and just three rushing touchdowns. The Bears may be relying on the arm of Chase Daniel ($5,000) here again to bail them out, which would make this a fantastic spot to keep rolling with the Saints DST, a unit that has scored 11 or more DKFP in three of its last four starts.
Indianapolis Colts ($2,000): Extremely cheap DSTs are always tempting, and the Colts look like the most tempting of the cheap punts this week. Coming off a game in which this defensive unit limited the Chiefs to just 12 points, the Colts take on the Houston Texans next, a team that offers a similarly explosive offense, but also one of the poorer offensive lines in football. Houston’s offensive line ranks eighth to last in adjusted sack rate, and Indianapolis will be at home in this game, entering as small -1 favorites currently. This tempts potential disaster if Deshaun Watson ($7,000) continues his hot streak, but can also help bring upside to your lineups given the potential for sacks here, and the salary this selection will help free up.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.
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