This is a weekly series where I break down my favorite weekly tournament plays. I’m going to be focusing on high-upside, likely low-owned plays and stacks from the main Sunday slate that (hopefully) can pay off big for you in a large-field tournament.
Nick Foles ($5,600) – DJ Chark ($6,200) – Eric Ebron ($3,600)
Jacksonville is coming off a poor performance against the Texans where it put up just three points but will have the luxury of having Nick Foles back at QB for this game. The Colts feature a solid defense statistically, but after consecutive losses to Mason Rudolph and Ryan Fitzpatrick, this group shouldn’t be one to fear in fantasy. The Colts enter this game with injuries at cornerback and a defensive line that has produced only 23 sacks this year — 18th in the league.
With time to throw, Foles should be able to target Chark downfield in this game, and the receiver sits 15th in the league in yards per catch at a 16.1 average. While rust could be a factor here, it’s worth noting Foles has had the bye week to prepare and had time acclimate himself with Chark and Co. in the preseason. On the flip side of this game, you could pay up for the potentially low-owned Marlon Mack ($6,400) against a suspect Jags rush defense, but with TY Hilton likely out for this game, Ebron looks like fantastic value. Ebron saw 12 targets last week and is facing a Jacksonville defense that has allowed five scores to opposing TEs in its past five games.
Just Missed: There’s a possibility that with the price increases a Lamar Jackson ($7,700) – Marquise Brown ($5,600) stack potentially could be low-owned on DraftKings this week. The Texans have given up the third most DKFP per game to opposing WRs, and Brown’s sub-$6K price makes it easier to stomach paying more than $7K for the upside of Jackson.
Ryan Finley ($5,000)
Finley wasn’t terrible in his first game as the Bengals’ starting QB. Even though he ended with just 10.9 DKFP points, the rookie threw a nice TD pass to Tyler Eifert ($3,200), rushed for 22 yards and generally was solid given the situation he was thrown into. The Bengals won’t be as outclassed against the Raiders this week as they were against Baltimore, and Cincinnati’s passing game might even have a shot at coming alive in this matchup.
Oakland has allowed the fifth most DKFP per game to opposing QBs and have allowed multiple passing TDs against in each of its past six games. Featuring a thin secondary and a pass rush that ranks just 20th in adjusted sack rate, Oakland’s defense provides some fertile ground for Finley to potentially bust out with a 20+ DKFP game, which would provide some sterling returns for his DraftKings investors given the cheap price.
Just Missed: Despite his team losing a couple of winnable matchups this year, Dak Prescott ($6,700) has been incredible in 2019 and gets a fantastic matchup this week against the Lions, who have allowed 13 passing TDs in their past four games. Prescott and most of the Cowboys’ primary offensive weapons are in play here for major upside.
Ezekiel Elliot ($9,000)
The sentiment on Elliott is bound to be about as low as possible this week after his poor primetime performance against the Vikings, and we should be expecting suppressed ownership in Week 11 GPPs as a result. Minnesota’s rush defense isn’t one to be trifled with, though, as it’s allowed just two rushing TDs all season. On the complete opposite end of the spectrum, though, is the Detroit defense, which enters this game having allowed 4.6 yards per carry this season to opposing RBs — the eighth-worst mark in the league — and 14 TDs, the second-most of any defense.
Elliott played nearly every snap last game and has taken all but two of the Cowboys’ red zone touches over their past six games. Given Detroit’s injury issues and the fact it might again be turning to Jeff Driskel ($4,600) at QB, Elliott should have multiple opportunities to get into the end zone here and potentially land the kind of slate-breaking game his price demands.
Just Missed: The Falcons will be turning to little-known Brian Hill ($4,800) as their starter in this week’s game. Hill played well in preseason, has been with the Falcons for a couple years now, and will be facing a Panthers defense that has ceded the most TDs and yards per carry to opposing RBs in the league.
Courtland Sutton ($6,000)
The Vikings’ pass defense has a been a liability all season as they enter this week having allowed the most receptions, overall, to opposing WRs. Cornerback Xavier Rhodes is setting career-lows in most areas and has allowed the fourth most receptions in the league. This is all great news for Sutton, who enters this game with a sterling 15.7 yards per catch rate — 19th best in the league and just 0.1 fewer than Amari Cooper ($7,700), who burned Rhodes and the Vikings for 147 yards and a TD last week.
Sutton’s QB issues should lead to him garnering low ownership in GPPs, but it’s worth noting Sutton and Brandon Allen ($4,700) combined for five catches and a TD in Allen’s first start against the Browns. Sutton’s had some great moments this year but has yet to put that true monster fantasy game on his ledger. It’s possible that, against a weak Vikings pass defense that doesn’t guard average WRs well — let alone elite ones like Sutton — this is the week he explodes.
Just Missed: The Patriots’ Mohammed Sanu ($5,100) went for 10 catches, 81 yards and a TD in his second game as a Patriot and gets a prime matchup against Philly, which has given up the seventh most TDs to the WR position this year. While he might not see 14 targets again, Sanu’s cheap price and matchup make him a great value target this week.
Irv Smith Jr. ($3,100)
The Vikings look likely to be without Adam Thielen (hamstring; questionable) again this week, which again would open up more targets for their secondary receivers. Rookie Irv Smith Jr. might be listed as a TE but profiles more as WR and has seen six targets in each of the Vikings’ past two games. Smith Jr. hasn’t found the end zone yet in the pros, but there’s optimism it will come soon.
Playing 74% of the snaps last week, Smith Jr. ended up ceding the actual TDs to his positional compatriot, Kyle Rudolph ($3,600), but he still saw two red zone targets in that game — the same number as Rudolph. Denver’s defense doesn’t allow a ton of big plays — seventh best yards per play average in the league — but with Minnesota favored by more than 10 and carrying a 24.25-point implied team total as of writing, targeting the cheap Smith Jr. here for a breakout game makes a lot of sense in big-field GPPs this week.
Just Missed: The Buccaneers’ OJ Howard ($3,600) is coming off his best performance of the season as he saw a season-high seven targets and caught his first TD. With such a thin TE group to choose from this week, Howard’s upside and increasing target share might be worth gambling on here in big GPPs, even in a less-than-ideal matchup.
New York Jets ($3,100): Jets DST hasn’t been the most reliable target this season, but they’ve flashed upside at times. New York has posted three games now with 16 or more DKFP and gets a fantastic matchup this week with the Redskins, who will be rolling with Dwayne Haskins Jr. ($4,800) as the starter at QB. Haskins is sporting a 42.2 passer rating coming into this game and has thrown four INTs on just 44 attempts. The Jets’ pass rush came alive last week with six sacks and could flash here again against a Redskins offensive line that sports the fifth worst adjusted sack rate in the league. It’s a nice upside for an affordable target in GPPs.
Arizona Cardinals ($1,500): YOLO! DraftKings pricing this year has seen multiple DSTs priced below the $2,000 mark, allowing fantasy players the opportunity to save extra money by taking a shot with a big underdog DST in a bad matchup. The matchup for the Cardinals might not be as terrible as it seems, though, as San Francisco enters this game likely to be missing: TE George Kittle (knee; out), T Joe Staley (out), WR Emmanuel Sanders (ribs; questionable) and RB Matt Brieda (ankle; questionable). The Cards recorded four sacks last week and 9.0 DKFP without a defensive score. At their price this week, that kind of effort would more than justify their salary here. They’re a solid pay-down target here.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.