This is a weekly series where I break down my favorite weekly tournament plays. I’m going to be focusing on high-upside, potentially low-owned plays and stacks from the main Sunday slate that (hopefully) can pay off big for you in a large-field tournament.
Patrick Mahomes ($7,400) – Tyreek Hill ($8,900) – Mecole Hardman ($4,200)
The Raiders enter this week’s game having allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game and the second-most passing TDs in the league. Now they travel to K.C. to take on Mahomes, who is coming off a bye and will be an extra week removed from a knee dislocation suffered in Week 7. While Mahomes might end up being one of the most popular plays at his position, a double-stack with two of his speedy WRs is a good way to differentiate.
Hill (questionable – hamstring) is listed at his highest price point of the season — by $700 — and is rehabbing from a slight hamstring pull in Week 11, which is sure to keep his ownership levels down. Hill’s injury status needs to be monitored, but if he does play, Hardman also likely will go overlooked. At just $4,200, the rookie only needs one big play to pay off here and should get a shot or two to do just that against an Oakland team allowing the fifth-most yards per play in the league. A pure K.C. passing stack, centered on their WRs, is the epitome of boom-or-bust but has the upside for a historic day here against a Raiders secondary that allowed Sam Darnold ($6,100) to post 315 yards and three scores on just 29 pass attempts.
Just Missed: For a much cheaper GPP stack, looking at the Bengals and Jets players isn’t the worst idea this week. An Andy Dalton ($4,700) – Tyler Boyd ($5,200) – Le’Veon Bell ($7,200) trio gives you a cheap passing stack going up against the Jets, who have given up the fourth-most DKFP to the WR position this year.
Nick Foles ($5,700)
Foles has thrown 95 passes since returning as starter for the Jaguars two games ago and looks set for another high-volume week. The Buccaneers have allowed the most pass attempts per game (41.9) and enter with one of the best rush defenses in the league, allowing just 3.3 yards per carry. The matchup alone makes Foles a solid upside target, but the Jaguars’ defense and their inability to stop the opposing team from scoring points makes this a potential slate-breaking spot for both passing offenses. Jacksonville has allowed an average of 33.7 points against in its past three games while Tampa Bay’s offense has averaged 34.5 points in its past two road games. Foles might be riskier than opposing QB Jameis Winston ($6,300), given he’s averaged just 16.86 DKFP in two starts, but the salary savings and ability to stack him with a cheaper Jacksonville WR like DJ Chark ($6,600) or Chris Conley ($4,500) make him a great GPP target.
Just Missed: The Colts’ Jacoby Brissett ($5,900) could be in a bounce-back spot against Tennessee, which has allowed multiple passing TDs in seven games this year. Brissett also acts as a good goal-line rusher for Indy with three rushing TDs and should get a healthy TY Hilton ($6,200) back here, too.
Aaron Jones ($6,800)
The Packers have had issues getting the ball to Jones on a week-to-week basis, but one thing they have done well is to rectify a low-output game immediately. In each of the three prior instances, prior to last week, where Jones had posted 9.0 or less DKFP, the second year back has averaged 24.5 DKFP in his following game. The Giants have developed into somewhat of a funnel defense, in that they are allowing less than 4 yards per carry, but Jones’ pass-catching role has seen him average 4.4 targets per game and allowed him to go off in numerous spots this year, including 28 DKFP against a highly rated Vikings rush defense. In a game where the Packers are 6.5-point favorites, where poor weather could hamper the longer passing game, Jones’s upside here looks quite solid, and he could be quite overlooked in GPPs.
Just Missed: The Cardinals’ Kenyan Drake ($5,600) has averaged seven targets over his past two games and 19 touches per game since being inserted in the lineup three games ago. There’s some possibility his workload gets eaten into this week, but for well under $6K, his upside is worth the risk in GPPs.
A.J. Brown ($5,300)
The Colts, over their past two starts, have allowed 193 receiving yards per game to opposing WRs. Meanwhile, Brown is coming off his best game of the season and has progressed into a near every-down role in the Titans’ offense. Brown’s 16 targets over the past three weeks leads the Titans and, while the volume isn’t super enticing, his 18.7 yards per reception — which is fourth best in the league — certainly is. The Colts have been solid against the run, allowing less than 100 rush yards per game on the season and have limited Derrick Henry ($7,600) to less than 100 yards in each of their past three meetings, as well. Given the issues in the Colts’ secondary of late, the stage might be set here for Brown to see a few more targets than normal and post his second monster game in a row. He’s got upside appeal at a still-affordable price.
Just Missed: On the flip-side of the Colts/Titans game is TY Hilton ($6,200) who is coming off an extra long week of rest as the Colts. Hilton should garner low ownership this week and could be in a good spot for some instant production as the Titans have allowed three 100+ yard games and five TDs to opposing WRs over their last four starts.
Greg Olsen ($4,400)
With a lot of DFS players likely looking to target the expensive TEs in the Kansas City-Oakland game this week, there’s a chance the much-cheaper Olsen could go overlooked in what sets up as a terrific fantasy matchup. The Redskins enter this game having ceded the ninth-most DKFP per game to the TE position this season and have given up three TDs to opposing TEs in their past two games. Olsen has been amazingly steady this year and comes into Week 13 averaging seven targets per game with three red zone targets over the Panthers’ past two games, the second-most on the team in that span. The Redskins have given up three or more passing TDs in five games this year, making this a great spot for another decent game from Kyle Allen ($5,500), who has chewed up weaker secondaries when given the chance. Going with a moderately priced Olsen in a prime matchup is a good way to save money and get solid leverage in big-field GPPs for Week 13.
Just Missed: The Cardinals have allowed the most TDs to opposing TEs (12) this year by a wide margin. This is good news for the Rams’ Tyler Higbee ($2,500), who has played more than 70% of the snaps in each of his past two games and might be set for more targets as Gerald Everett ($4,600) is listed as questionable with a knee issue.
Eagles ($3,600): The Eagles’ defense has been trending up of late, recording 14 sacks in their past four games and now 12th overall in adjusted sack rate. They’ll be facing off against a Dolphins team whose offensive line has allowed the most sacks against in the league. Eagles DST recorded 35 DKFP and 10 sacks earlier in the season against the Jets, who have allowed the third most sacks against this year, and this unit could see similar upside in Week 13 against a similarly weak opponent. With Dolphins QB Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,200) having recorded three turnovers in three of his past five starts, the spot looks ripe for a big game from Philly DST.
Cardinals ($2,300): Cardinals DST remains uber cheap and might be in a spot here to post a surprise performance against a suddenly flailing Rams offense. The Rams have averaged just 12 points per game in their past three outings with QB Jared Goff ($6,100) posting six turnovers in that same span. Arizona sports a mediocre pass rush (19th in adjusted sack rate), but its secondary has been much more opportunistic since the return of Patrick Peterson, recording four INTs in its past two games. With other cheap DSTs facing far more elite QBs/offenses, Arizona has some appeal as a salary-saver in big GPPs.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.