This is a weekly series where I break down my favorite weekly tournament plays. I’m going to be focusing on high-upside, expected low-owned plays and stacks for the main Sunday slate that (hopefully) can pay off big for you in a large-field tournament.
Aaron Rodgers ($6,600) – Davante Adams ($6,900) – Christian McCaffrey ($10,500)
The Packers enter this game as five-point home favorites with a 26-point implied team total. Their opponent, the Panthers, also come into this game having allowed the sixth most passing attempts against per game, making this quite fertile ground for an explosion from Rodgers. Despite having one of the best pass rushes in the league, Carolina also has allowed an average of 320 passing yards per game over its past four games and Rodgers, whose salary is down $300 off last week, has been far better at home this year, averaging 315 yards and more than two touchdowns at Lambeau Field.
This prime spot for Rodgers also should mean good things for Adams. Adams is priced below $7K for the first time this year and, despite not scoring a TD yet, he has seen 26 targets in his [ast two games. Carolina’s secondary has been by no means unbeatable, as it’s allowed the eighth most DKFP per game to opposing WRs. Finally, there’s McCaffrey, who went off again last week despite the poor matchup. Even priced up at over $10K, McCaffrey looks like a near must-play this week against a Green Bay defense that has given up the fifth most receptions to RBs on the season and has the sixth worst yards per catch average among defenses on the season. He’s expensive, but with lots of value to be had at WR and DST, fitting him in with Rodgers and Adams to stack both sides of this game shouldn’t be overly difficult.
Just Missed: The Jets and Giants feature two of the worst secondaries/pass defenses in the league. Daniel Jones ($5,700) – Golden Tate ($5,900) – Jamison Crowder ($5,000) is a nice cost-effective way to go about attacking those two units in fantasy this week.
Ryan Tannehill ($5,100)
Despite some early-season success, the Chiefs’ pass defense seems to be in “regression” mode of late, as it’s allowed six passing TDs in its past two games. Teams playing Kansas City also are averaging 36 pass attempts per game, far above the league average, making this another good spot to go bargain hunting with the Titans’ Tannehill. Since taking over as the starter, Tannehill has completed 75% of his passes and averaged more than 23 DKFP in three full games. The script here says Derrick Henry ($6,400) will be involved as well, but Tannehill’s efficiency shouldn’t be ignored given his price came down by $200 from last week and leaves him barely above several far less-appealing QBs. Pairing him with whoever starts at TE this week — Delanie Walker ($3,800) is questionable — or one of his outside WRs also won’t cost you much, making him a fine GPP target regardless of how you deploy him.
Just Missed: As mentioned above, the Jets’ pass defense is taking on water, having allowed two backup quarterbacks to toss six TDs against it the past two weeks. Daniel Jones ($5,700) has been hit-or-miss as the Giants’ starter but has true GPP-winning upside again in this sort of matchup.
Damien Williams ($4,900)
Williams has seen an increased workload of late as the Chiefs begin searching for the running back who will lead them down the stretch. Even though most of his production last week came on one long run, Williams played more than 70% of the snaps against Minnesota, despite all three KC RBs being healthy. The matchup for Williams this week isn’t terrible, either, as the Titans just finished giving up 146 yards on the ground to Christian McCaffrey and have allowed the second most receptions to RBs in the league thus far. With Patrick Mahomes ($7,000) looking likely to return this week, Williams will be in a great spot to see fewer stacked boxes and be an effective outlet for Mahomes, who could be looking to use RBs a few more times than normal to avoid hits. At less than $5K in price, the upside here looks immense for a player who went off in this offense around this time last year.
Just Missed: Both the Bills’ Devin Singletary ($5,000) and the Bears’ David Montgomery ($5,300) have seen increased snap counts over the past 2-3 weeks and have prime “smash” spots against bottom-tier rush defenses. Both are solid GPP targets this week at still-affordable prices.
Jamison Crowder ($5,000)
After losing to Miami last week, the Jets fly into this game with a burning left rudder, one sputtering engine and no landing gear. To make things worse, Le’Veon Bell ($6,900; knee) looks highly questionable to suit up, which means we might see a touch more passing than usual from the Jets as well. This could open things up for a monster game from Crowder, who should have a terrific matchup in this game against a Giants secondary that has allowed the third most DKFP per game to opposing WRs. With Janoris Jenkins likely to shadow Robby Anderson ($4,700) on the outside, Crowder could see tons of beleaguered rookie Deandre Baker in this game, who has allowed the 11th most receptions against on the year. Crowder saw nine targets last week against Miami and could be in a spot to see even more this week if the Jets don’t have their typical outlet receiver in Bell available for this game.
Just Missed: On other side of this game, Golden Tate ($5,900) is in a nice spot to rack up season-highs in catches and yardage. The Jets still are banged up in the secondary and have allowed an incredible six TDs in the past two weeks to opposing WRs.
Mike Gesicki ($3,100)
With rookie WR Preston Williams (knee) ruled out for the year, there are some extra targets up for grabs in Miami. Gesicki is coming off his best game as a pro, converting all six of his targets into catches for 95 yards. Still searching for his first career TD, Gesicki has found a nice connection with Ryan Fiztpatrick ($5,200) of late as the two have connected for catches on 12 of Fitzpatrick’s past 13 pass attempts to Gesicki. Playing more than 60% of the snaps and with his targets likely to increase with Williams gone, Gesicki has a great matchup this week, too, as the Colts have allowed the seventh most DKFP per game to the TE position this year. Priced near the minimum, the Dolphins have no reason not to feed Gesicki in this spot, and the second-year player should be in for a decent week of volume against a defense that isn’t great at guarding pass-catching TEs.
Just Missed: It’s early in the week, but Jonnu Smith ($3,500) would be in another good position to go off if Delanie Walker ($3,700; questionable) ends up missing this game. Smith has averaged six targets a game without Walker playing, and KC has allowed the third most receptions to TEs on the season.
Indianapolis Colts ($3,500): The Colts return home this week, where they’ve been a much better DST to target for fantasy. Indy is averaging more than three sacks per game and 1.5 turnovers at home and will get to face the turnover-happy Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,200). Despite playing well last week, Fitzpatrick is still a great opponent for fantasy as he’s averaged more than two turnovers per game in seven appearances in 2019. Miami’s offensive line held up well last week, but the Colts rank 13th in adjusted sack rate and have been more successful in home games at getting to the QB. You could see a big bounce back from this solid unit here.
Arizona Cardinals ($2,200): Tampa Bay’s Jameis Winston ($6,800) is sure to be popular in GPPs this week but isn’t afraid of busting in these spots. Winston has averaged two turnovers per game thus far and, even if he does put up some points, those turnovers could lead to some big points for Arizona’s DST, which is the fourth cheapest DST on the slate. It should be noted, too, that Arizona is up to 12th in sacks in the league, while Tampa’s offensive line is just 23rd in adjusted sack rate. A great leverage target given how popular Winston likely will be in big GPPs, the Cardinals’ DST offers good upside for a minuscule price.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.