Week 17 of the NFL season is basically the wild west when it comes to DFS. Anything could happen, anyone could be playing and any single moment could be the one that’s about to put you on tilt. I bring this up because you’re about to read an article that might not make a whole lot of sense by the time Sunday morning rolls around. With more than a few teams likely to be sitting some starters this weekend, it’s going to be crucial to have your head on a swivel and your wits at full attention for all the breaking news. Remember, it’s not always about finding value — which should be plentiful given the circumstances — it’s about finding the right value.
Let’s break down some plays that look enticing at this point in the week on a massive 15-game slate.
TOM BRADY, QB, NE VS. MIA, $6,000It’s weird to even think about using Tom Brady in a Week 17 setting considering the amount of times the veteran QB hasn’t had anything to play for in the season’s final contest. Yet, with home field advantage in the divisional round and a bye on the line, we should be getting a full game from the 42-year-old. There’s also little Brady has enjoyed more throughout his career than picking apart the Dolphins. In fact, including his three-touchdown performance against Miami all the way back in Week 2, Brady has now registered at least three scores four of the past five times he’s played his AFC East rivals. This particular version of the Dolphins make for a pretty nice matchup, too. Miami’s surrendered an NFL-high 2.5 opponent touchdown passes per game, a big reason why the squad has also conceded a league-worst 2.72 points per drive. With the Patriots generating 4.1 red zone possessions every occasion they take the field at Gillette Stadium — the best mark in football — Brady going to have ample opportunities to get into the end zone and finish 2019 with a bang.
CARLOS HYDE, RB, HOU VS. TEN, $5,000The viability of Carlos Hyde all comes down to how much you trust the word of Bill O’Brien. While the Texans are essentially locked into the four seed in the AFC entering play in Week 17, Houston’s head coach was dead-set earlier in the week that his squad would be playing to win and that he would not be resting players. If that ends up being true, this would actually be a sneaky good spot to play the veteran RB. Hyde is currently sitting 10th in the NFL in carries (241) and is one of 11 running backs to have racked up over 1,000 yards on the ground so far this season. It also doesn’t hurt the 29-year-old’s prospects that the Titans have been struggling to contain opposing backfields as of late. Dating back to the beginning of Week 12, Tennessee has surrendered an eye-popping seven rushing touchdowns and, for the season as a whole, it’s allowing the ninth-most DKFP per contest to the position. Hyde’s upside might be limited by his lack of pass-catching ability, but he’ll be a high-floor option if O’Brien sticks to his guns.
STEVEN SIMS, WR, WAS AT DAL, $4,700It’ll be hard for Steven Sims to top his two-touchdown performance from last weekend’s high-scoring loss to the Giants, but he’ll be in a very nice situation to try. The rookie wideout has seen an insane 27 passes thrown in his direction since the start of Week 14, a span of time where the only five WRs with more targets to their name are Michael Thomas, Davante Adams, Julio Jones, Allen Robinson and DeAndre Hopkins. That’s not a class of receiver that I assumed we’d be listing Sims among at any point in 2019. On top of that, Sims is coming off logging a season-high 75.7% of the Redskins’ offensive snaps and he’ll have a fantastic individual matchup this Sunday against Jourdan Lewis, who’s allowed a 79% catch rate to the wideouts he’s covered so far this season — the worst mark of all qualified corners in football. In fact, in recent weeks Lewis has played a major role in several slot receivers going off versus Dallas, including Julian Edelman (8-93-0), Cole Beasley (6-110-1) and Cooper Kupp (6-41-1).
DALLAS GOEDERT, TE, PHI AT NYG, $4,900Maybe Dallas Goedert isn’t the most inexpensive tight end on the board, but he’s certainly a possible pivot option off of Tyler Higbee ($5,600), who will likely be the highest owned TE on the slate. The sophomore is coming off a huge performance against the Cowboys in Week 16, a contest that saw Goedert set new career-highs in targets (12), receptions (9) and snap share (90.3%). It’s basically out of necessity at this point, too. Almost no one aside from Goedert can seem to stay healthy for Philadelphia, as the team dressed only three wide receivers last Sunday and then saw JJ Arcega-Whiteside ($3,700) leave the game in the fourth quarter due to a re-aggravation of a prior foot issue. More importantly, Zach Ertz ($6,000) cracked a rib in the victory and is now questionable to play against the Giants. Regardless of which players end up active for the Eagles, Goedert might be the rare DFS asset with a 30.0% target share as a floor in Week 17.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.