Cardinals Saints Football

Somehow, we already have made it to Week 10 of the NFL season, which needs to slow down. This week offers a 10-game slate that brings back a lot of the big names we were missing in Week 9. With that said, the Broncos, Texans, Jaguars, Patriots, Eagles and Redskins are on bye. Let’s get into the week and as always, feel free to reach out on Twitter @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Highest Scoring Game

ARI at TB (-5) – 52.5 points

The Cardinals have a 6-3 record against the spread and a 5-4 on hitting the over. As for the Buccaneers, they enter this game with a 2-6 record against the spread and 6-2 record on hitting the over, which is in a three-way tie for the best in the league.

On a two-game losing streak, the Cardinals are looking to change their fortunes against the Buccaneers on the road. Kyler Murray ($6,500) comes into this game averaging just 13.3 DKFP and 188 passing yards over his past three games. Luckily for him, he’s facing one of the most generous teams to opposing QBs. The Bucs allow an average of 25.8 DKFP and 310 passing yards with 24 total touchdown passes. The only downfall here is the Bucs’ run defense has been stellar, potentially putting a cap on Murray’s rushing upside. If he’s forced to throw the ball, he’ll have a number of enticing matchups to choose from as the Bucs’ secondary has been abysmal. In particular, the Bucs have been roasted by slot receivers, allowing an average of 17 yards per catch. That would put Larry Fitzgerald ($5,500) in plenty of talks this week, but we’ve heard this about six times already this season. Still, the numbers can’t be denied. For what it’s worth, Christian Kirk ($5,200) also travels to the slot and would be able to take advantage of that YPC total more than Fitz. Kirk has played in the slot on 62% of his snaps.

While the Cardinals are in a great spot, so are the Bucs. The Cardinals have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and tight ends while giving up the sixth most to wide receivers. A three-man stack of Jameis Winston ($6,800), Chris Godwin ($7,400) and Mike Evans ($7,600) is expensive but could bring a massive amount of fantasy points back. Cameron Brate ($3,700) also could be a popular option despite not drawing a target last week. The Cardinals have given up an average of 23.1 DKFP to tight ends, the highest in the league. I really like the matchup for Godwin, as Evans likely will draw shadow coverage from Patrick Peterson (who frankly hasn’t been good thus far, either). CB Tramaine Brock allows an average of 15 yards per catch against him with 186 of the 401 yards coming after the catch. This is a game you want exposure to.

Lowest Scoring Game

DET at CHI (-2.5) – 42.5 points

The Lions are 4-4 against the spread with a 6-2 record on hitting the over, which is in that three-way tie for first in the league. The Bears are one of the worst teams to bet on ATS and on the over, owners of a 2-6 and 3-5 record, respectively.

I’m honestly shocked the Bears are favored in this game, as they are 1-5 ATS when favored this season. In addition to them getting nothing done offensively, the defense has not been what anyone expected, either. They’ve allowed at least 22 points in three of their past four games, all of which have been losses. In that span we’ve seen opposing QBs average 16.3 DKFP, running backs average 34.4 and receivers average 20.2. Matt Stafford ($6,400) is red hot and has an average of more than 340 passing yards with 10 total touchdowns over his past three games. I have no problem taking Stafford and either Kenny Golladay ($7,000) or Mavin Jones ($6,200) in this game but will not be looking toward any of the Bears players. My interest in this game is quite limited overall but from a better perspective, I’ll be all over the Lions here.

DvP Matchups

Worst QB Matchups

QB, OPP, DvP Rank
Cleveland Browns, Buffalo Bills, 3rd
Detroit Lions, Chicago Bears, 6th
Cincinnati Bengals, Baltimore Ravens, 8th

Best QB Matchups

QB, OPP, DvP Rank
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Arizona Cardinals, 32nd
Arizona Cardinals, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 30th
New York Jets, New York Giants, 28th

Worst RB Matchups

RB, OPP, DvP Rank
Arizona Cardinals, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1st
Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, 2nd
Los Angeles Rams, Pittsburgh Steelers, 5th

Best RB Matchups

RB, OPP, DvP Rank
Tennessee Titans, Kansas City Chiefs, 32nd
Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, 31st
Carolina Panthers, Green Bay Packers, 30th

Worst WR Matchups

WR, OPP, DvP Rank
Cleveland Browns, Buffalo Bills, 2nd
Detroit Lions, Chicago Bears, 4th
Tennessee Titans, Kansas City Chiefs, 7th

Best WR Matchups

WR, OPP, DvP Rank
New York Jets, New York Giants, 32nd
Arizona Cardinals, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 30th
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Arizona Cardinals, 27th

Worst TE Matchups

TE, OPP, DvP Rank
Cleveland Browns, Buffalo Bills, 2nd
Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, 4th
New York Giants, New York Jets, 5ht

Best TE Matchups

TE, OPP, DvP Rank
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Arizona Cardinals, 32nd
Arizona Cardinals, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 31st
Carolina Panthers, Green Bay Packers, 28th

Target Report

Last Week’s Leaders

Name, Team, Last Week’s OPP, Targets
Mike Evans, TB, SEA, 16
Jarvis Landry, CLE, DEN, 13
Jaylen Samuels, PIT, IND, 13
Davante Adams, GB, LAC, 11
Marvin Jones, DET, OAK, 10
Sammy Watkins, KC, MIN, 10
DJ Moore, CAR, TEN, 10
Chris Godwin, TB, SEA, 9
Jamison Crowder, NYJ, MIA, 9
Le’Veon Bell, NYJ, MIA, 9

Last Three Week’s Leaders

Name, Team, Last Three Week’s Total, Avg. Targets
Mike Evans, TB, 28, 10.1
Allen Robinson, CHI, 28, 8.9
Marvin Jones, DET, 28, 7.1
Golden Tate, NYG, 27, 8.4
Travis Kelce, KC, 25, 8.2
Danny Amendola, DET, 24, 6.3
DeVante Parker, MIA, 24, 6.5
Jarvis Landry, CLE, 23, 8.4
Saquon Barkley, NYG, 23, 6.8
Tyler Boyd, CIN, 23, 10.4

Lineup Quick Hits

QB To Build Lineups Around…

Drew Brees ($6,700) – Brees showed he was fully healthy in Week 8, posting 28.9 DKFP against the Cardinals. Now he’s in a fantastic spot against the Falcons, who are allowing 25 DKFP and 263 passing yards on average to the quarterback position. In the two games Brees was fully active, he averaged 371 passing yards with five total touchdowns. Facing a Falcons organization that is self-destructing, this should be a fantastic spot for the Saints to post some major fantasy points.

WR To Pair Him With…

Michael Thomas ($8,300) – Thomas is the obvious choice to roll with Brees, as his production each and every week has been massive. In the two games these two played together, Thomas has averaged 27.8 DKFP, hooking up on 21 receptions for 235 yards and a touchdown. Now Thomas will draw CB Isaiah Oliver in coverage, who has been targeted against 45 times, allowing 30 receptions for an average of 14.2 yards per catch while being scored on three times. It’s an expensive stack but one that should be worth the price of admission.

The Top RB Will Be…

Aaron Jones ($7,400) – This should be a bounce-back spot for Jones, who was a massive disappointment against the Chargers. Then again, which Packer WASN’T in that game? This Panthers defense is allowing an average of 29.1 DKFP to opposing backs, which includes an average of 105 yards on the ground and 30 through the air. Jones is active in both facets of the game, and I expect him to be much busier than last week. While I think Davante Adams ($6,900) will cut into some of his targets, Jones still should receive enough to make him one of the top plays on the week.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.