Luka Doncic

So far, the Mavericks have dominated the Warriors this season. In two games, Dallas has won by an average of 34 points. Luka Doncic ($14,800) posted triple-doubles in both games, so this looks like a spot where he and the Mavs should cruise.



TUESDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN SPOTLIGHT


Set your lineups here: NBA Showdown $40K Pull Up Jumper [$10K to 1st]

Note: All salaries will be Flex prices unless noted as Captain’s Pick prices.


FIVE BETTING TRENDS

— The Warriors have lost each of their eight games.

— The Mavericks have covered the spread in each of their last six games against the Warriors.

— Ten of the Warriors’ last 13 games at Chase Center have gone UNDER the total points line.

— D’Angelo Russell has scored 25-plus points in six of his last seven appearances.

— Luka Doncic has scored 31-plus points in each of the Mavericks’ last six games as road favorites.

Stats provided by DraftKings Sportsbook


SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Mavericks

Most teams don’t have an answer for Luka Doncic ($14,800/$22,200 CP) and the Warriors are certainly no different. Luka has scored at least 75 DKFP in each of the first two meetings between these teams despite playing limited minutes in both contests due to blowouts. He could also be seeing a slightly larger than normal role if Kristaps Porzingis ($9,800) is out. KP is listed as questionable and Doncic has a 39.8% usage rating and scores 66.48 DKFP per 36 minutes when he’s off the court.

If Porzingis is out, Tim Hardaway Jr. ($6,400) also becomes a stronger play. He’s seen a slight usage bump when Porzingis is off the court this season and he’s averaging 31.5 DKFP in his last two games. There would also be extra minutes available to Maxi Kleber ($7,400) and Dwight Powell ($7,800) without Porzingis in the lineup.

For value, Justin Jackson ($1,200) is a cheap player to consider. His upside isn’t huge, but it doesn’t need to be for nearly a minimum salary. He’s scoured double-digit DKFP in six of his last seven games and his low salary could be needed to fit Doncic into the captain’s spot. Jalen Brunson ($1,000) could also fill this role although he hasn’t been quite as consistent as Jackson in recent games.


Warriors

Since he’s working on signing his guaranteed contract, it looks like Damion Lee won’t be available to play tonight. Assuming this is the case, Alec Burks ($7,000) figures to draw another start. In 15 starts, he’s averaging 31.4 DKFP, so he’s a player to consider. He also might be needed to play a few extra minutes than normal since Jordan Poole ($3,600) is questionable to play. Even though Poole isn’t a big name, he played 28 minutes last game. There are minutes to fill if both he and Lee are out.

On the high end, D’Angelo Russell ($10,400) is a solid option from the Warriors. Despite the higher price, I slightly prefer him to Draymond Green ($8,200). Russell returned from an injury on Sunday night and didn’t show any signs of rust. The Warriors let him play 35 minutes, so there are no concerns about a minutes restriction, and he scored 50.25 DKFP. DLO has scored at least 42 DKFP in six of his last seven games.

In a new role, Omari Spellman ($7,600) has been a beast. In the last two games, Golden State moved Spellman into the starting lineup and the extra minutes have led to plenty of more fantasy points. As a starter, he’s averaging 31.38 DKFP and he’s played well enough that I expect him to stick in the starting lineup going forward.


THE OUTCOME

Given how lopsided the first two games were between these teams, it’s hard to predict any outcome other than a decisive win for the Mavericks. There’s also an argument to be made that the eight-point spread isn’t enough since we have seen Dallas beat Golden State by as much as 48 points this season. The only question I have is how long will it take Doncic to get his triple-double. He almost got one before halftime the first time these teams played.

Final Score: Dallas 123, Golden State 110

Set your lineups here: NBA Showdown $40K Pull Up Jumper [$10K to 1st]


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