Winning in tournaments requires getting not just good efforts from your roster, but some extra high point production. Sometimes this requires differentiation in roster and other times it’s just identifying the high-ceiling plays for the slate.
For our purposes, we’re going to focus on the high-ceiling plays by position for tonight’s games, a 12-game slate. These are plays that could go for about six times what their salary is. (Ex. $6,000 * 6 = 36DK points equals value.)
Jeff Teague ($6,700) – Jeff goes from the ease of the New York Knicks backcourt defense to Charlotte, where the Hornets, and specifically Kemba Walker, are light on the defensive side as well. Teague’s been aggressive on the offensive end, with his personal Pace number at 105.06 possessions per 48 minutes.
Gerald Green ($3,800) – The people aren’t wise to this yet, but Eric Spoelstra is using Green with great liberty. He played a super-sub role in the preseason and continued that with a 30 minute, 23.25 DK point, 29% Usage effort against the Hornets Opening night. Against the Cavs tonight, he’ll either be matched up with Mo Williams or JR Smith most of the time, neither of which are challenging defenders.
Ty Lawson ($5,600) – Getting into the highest scoring game of the night with Lawson, who will be the trigger man for the Rockets. He played 30 minutes in the first game, allaying some concerns about playing time. A full run (and they’ll need it against Golden State) will push his minutes higher.
Serge Ibaka ($5,900) – Strong base of defensive skills (rebounds, blocks) to pull from at a great price, Ibaka goes to Orlando where they struggled to defend the frontcourt last season with the same players. The Thunder have already returned to their upbeat ways under Billy Donovan and Ibaka is a great high minutes entry into a game that has a 208 game total with a 108 team total for the Thunder.
Danilo Gallinari ($6,300) – High Usage baller that gets a plus matchup with the Timberwolves, a very pacy, mostly defensively lax team. Having Emmanuel Mudiay on board and starting at point guard agrees with Gallo, as he was open for 47 points in 35.6 minutes and was 3 for 5 on threes in the opener against the Rockets.
Pau Gasol ($7,600) – He’s in the mix for 6x because he has to go against Detroit, who was very generous with opponent big men. Pau had a dreadful game on Opening Night against Cleveland, so he’s looking to bounce back and he’ll find Ersan Ilyasova and Andre Drummond more to his liking, as is the 101.5 projected team total.
Festus Ezeli ($3,100) – If no Bogut (concussion), a high game total plus additional time on the court puts Ezeli squarely on the map tonight. He had modest numbers (13 points, 4 rebounds) in a 23 minute stint against the Pelicans, but even when that translated to 23 DKP, he was well under value. He goes against the Rockets and Dwight Howard, in Houston, which isn’t an easy matchup, but the starter’s minutes there to boost his numbers will be enough to crush that 3.1K salary.
DeMarcus Cousins ($10,200) – Not much thinking to do here. He’s so much fun to roster and has the highest floor numbers on the court tonight. Cousins’ athleticism against Roy Hibbert and the Lakers is a good tourney play even with a 10+K salary number at home. Karl Anthony-Towns had a 14 points, 12 rebound, 6-10 shooting night against Hibbert, so don’t think twice and get the Boogie Fever!
Al Jefferson ($6,700) – He’s good tonight for his modest price tag and the fact that he’s playing the Hawks, who are going to be league worst in offensive rebounding, just based on their stated desire to abandon the defensive glass to get back quickly to save time and laziness, leaving all the boards for Jefferson, building a high floor from which to drive his value higher.