Winning in tournaments requires getting not just good efforts from your roster, but some extra high point production. Sometimes this requires differentiation in roster and other times it’s just identifying the high-ceiling plays for the slate.
For our purposes, we’re going to focus on the high-ceiling plays by position for tonight’s games, a 10-game slate. These are plays that could go for about six times what their salary is. (Ex. $6,000 * 6 = 36DK points equals value.)
There are a couple of potential blowout alarms among the many excellent players available on the slate, so let’s find the right plays out there. Ask any questions on Twitter @JasonWalker_72.
James Harden ($10,000) – Yes, he and the Rockets are struggling, and with other top guys on the docket, he may be somewhat avoided by folks, but he’s still one of the Usage Lords of the NBA, currently fifth with 32.5% rating. The Kings foul the third most and are struggling with what to do at the SG position, where they are thinking of going to 2-PG full time (Rajon Rondo and Darren Collison). Because of the Rockets poor defense this season, the game script keeps this game close, allowing Harden to be on the floor long enough to make value on 10K.
Bradley Beal ($6,600) – This is a sneaky pace game with a 209.5 game total and a one point spread. Avery Bradley has a defensive reputation, but he’s been slow out of the gate this season, carrying one of the worst personal defensive ratings on the Celtics thus far, so folks may not be on Beal tonight because of Bradley’s play last season defensively. As for Beal, he’s been leveling up his production, with games of 34.25, 36, and 44.25.
T.J. McConnell ($4,000) – Not all of your tourney plays have to be low-owned, especially if there is obvious value that could facilitate other high end plays. As long as McConnell, who is a secret no longer, starts and gets close to 30 minutes, he’s lock and load. He’s not going to score, so the floor is potentially lower, but his activity on the glass and assists are currently prolific and his game scores of 34.75 and 36.25 have popped his salary from 3K to 4K in less than a week, making him a good tourney play.
Anthony Davis ($10,700) – The Brow has burned many already. His price continues to rise. So why list him here in our tourney plays? Because he’s the ultimate tourney play: A player with the upside to outright dominate games for you. His matchup tonight against the Hawks is at home, the Hawks routinely forego the offensive glass, leaving Davis to his own personal rebound collection company and there is nobody on the Hawks his size that can slow him down. Other with demur tonight on Davis, making him an even more shiny, attractive tourney play for today.
Marcus Morris ($6,100) – A follow the minutes philosophy leads you to Morris in a REVENGE game against the Suns, but it’s more than that. Morris has been effective in his expanded role at SF with the Pistons. His price has risen over 1500 dollars since the start of the season, so folks might be off of Morris, but he’s a better play that, say, Danilo Gallinari, who has to deal with the suppressive defense of Golden State. Morris has two games in the last four that exceed his value even at his current dollar level.
Evan Fournier ($5,200) – He’s gone up in price, but he’s still way outdistancing this price point in terms of value. Games of 28.75, 36.75, 47.25, 45.50 easy make value even at an elevated salary. The game against the Raptors is a six point spread and a 202.5 game total. Skiles has Fournier playing about 40 minutes per game so lock and load.
Andre Drummond ($8,900) – The price is starting to rise but without Greg Monroe sharing the big man goodness anymore, Drummond is likely closer to a 10K guy at this point. He has games of 52.75, 53.00 and 68.75 in his last four and has a nice game against Phoenix who, while having a fine center in Tyson Chandler, is still going to provide plenty of misses for Drummond to build his floor.
Brook Lopez ($6,800) – The Lakers. Third worst against centers. Game total of 206.5, close game spread. Lopez has solid usage at 25% and the Lakers shoot the fourth worst in the league, so that gives Lopez’ rebounding rates a boost. Lopez often gets overlooked, especially in a fuller slate, so he’s a sneaky tourney center in that regard.
Dewayne Dedmon ($3,000) – Min priced center that will get more minutes with Nikola Vucevic out for Friday’s game against the Raptors. Dedmon puts up nice peripherals and is a highly active play. He won’t need much to make value at 3K if you are looking to punt to get to some higher end targets.