In tournaments it’s vital to find plays that contain both upside and the potential to be overlooked by the public. Take two players that are priced at $8,100 and projected for similar output. If one is 33% drafted and the other is 5%, you want to take the 5% player every time. When he outscores the higher drafted player (which will happen often), you’re passing 27% of the field with that play. That’s a very good thing. Below are a few plays from tonight’s games that fit that mold.
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Ricky Rubio (7,400) – Rubio returned to action on Wednesday after missing four games. He only played 27 minutes and is on a back to back, so there is definitely risk surrounding the minutes he will play tonight. He said he felt good after last night’s game. If he can play 30+ minutes, he’s in a great spot to produce. The Magic are ranked second in fantasy points allowed to point guards. His salary is $100 cheaper than Brandon Knight who will likely be heavily owned after his outburst vs the Lakers on Monday. This price blocks Ricky and will keep his ownership very low. Ricky’s always a threat to triple double and that can go a long way in a tournament.
C.J. McCollum (6,500) – After mostly playing solid defense last year, Harden is reminding us that old habits die hard. Will that change under their new interim coach tonight? Maybe. I’m not betting on it. McCollum is coming off several difficult matchups which stifled his production and should keep his ownership in check. Tonight’s game vs the Rockets has the 2nd highest total of the night and seems ripe to produce a lot of fantasy points. McCollum is a great way to get exposure to it.
Rodney Hood (4,800) – Rodney Hood is a gunner and it’s always good to target gunners in tournaments. If his shot is falling tonight, he’s liable to do a lot of damage. He’s coming of two games of 37 and 38 minutes. If he approaches anywhere near those minutes, he will easily pay off his price tag. SG is generally weak today so going cheap is a very solid approach.
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Dwight Powell (4,800) – Powell has been incredibly efficient on a per minute basis this year. In other words, when he’s been on the court, he’s scored a lot of fantasy points. It’s always good to target players in tournaments that are very effective but lacking minutes. You can feel confident that if they stumble into minutes that night, they will easily exceed value.
Amir Johnson (4,400) – Like Powell, Johnson is another textbook tournament play. He’s effective when on the court, but his minutes are typically difficult to predict. Brad Stevens is notorious for riding the hot hand and jerking his rotation around. Stevens often plays 10 or 11 players which means less minutes for everyone. In the last 4 games, Amir has ranged from 14 (14 fp) and 36 minutes (47 fp). The Dallas frontcourt is one of the most fantasy friendly matchups. Amir’s ownership will be down from his recent volatile performances. He’s a great target tonight.
Rudy Gobert (6,700) – Gobert has struggled to start the season and we haven’t seen the massive upside that he flashed post All-Star break last year. Yesterday he declared that he’s finally 100% after dealing with an ankle injury. The Raptors are top 10 in fantasy points allowed to centers. Tonight may be Rudy’s first 50 fp outing of the season.
Mason Plumlee (5,500) – So far this year, Dwight Howard hasn’t been the defensive force we’ve come to expect in year past. I don’t think reality has caught up with his reputation and that will keep Plumlee’s ownership very low. Plumlee has always been a much better fantasy player than real life player. He possesses legit fantasy upside. His minutes are safe with Meyers Leonard out indefinitely. As long as he avoids foul trouble, he’s primed for a big game at very low ownership levels.