Winning in tournaments requires getting not just good efforts from your roster, but some extra high point production. Sometimes this requires differentiation in roster and other times it’s just identifying the high-ceiling plays for the slate.
For our purposes, we’re going to focus on the high-ceiling plays by position, and salary tier (top end, mid tier and low end), for tonight’s games, a Hollywood blockbuster 14-game slate. These are plays that could go for about, on average, six times what their salary is. (Ex. $6,000 * 6 = 36DK points equals value.)
Let’s line em up! Ask any questions on Twitter @JasonWalker_72.
John Wall ($9,600) – He’s in a spot where people might think being in the middle of a weird scheduling quirk that could lend itself to limiting Wall’s minutes is a deterrent, his salary is high and there is a plethora of higher and lower option to choose from. Wall’s been averaging over 52 DKPPG over his last four games and has a strong 210 game total. Wall is the no-doubt top option on the team as well.
Jrue Holiday ($6,900) – Holiday has a nice matchup against the Sixers, but still doesn’t start, which could limit his ownership somewhat. He’s hard not to like, with his usage over the last 15 games at 32% and playing nearly 30 minutes per game. The Sixers have been better defensively overall in the last 15 games but still struggle mightily defending the PG position.
Mario Chalmers ($4,200) – There will be an initial sneak attack from Chalmers, playing time wise after the deals that sent Courtney Lee and Jeff Green out of Memphis. Chalmers has established a strong level of offensive efficiency with Mike Conley, scoring 116 points per 100 possessions, per ESPN and NBA Stats.
DeMarcus Cousins ($11,000) – He’s so expensive that, on a large slate, he might not be as owned due to the other options out there. But he has a tremendous matchup against the Nuggets, the game total is over 218 and Cousins is the league leader in usage and free throw rate over the last 15 games as well.
Tobias Harris ($5,800) – Nobody expects a large amount of minutes but SVG has already said he’s going to play both the SF/PF tonight, which means likely close to 30 minutes, more if he’s doing well. He’s in a tremendous matchup tonight against the Bulls who are fourth worst among SF and have long struggled this season with the PF position. There’s going to be some uncertainty around how he’ll play and certainly that stems from the variance tonight, but he’s worth taking a shot at in a tourney lineup because SVG could decide to go crazy with his new toy.
Amar’e Stoudemire ($4,200) – He’s a core value for me tonight against the Hawks, who allow a ton of points to opposing big and now they don’t even have Tiago Splitter anymore. Stoudemire lit the Hawks up for 38 DK points in a little over 20 minutes the last time they played and now Whiteside is suspended and Bosh is out, leaving the Heat needing strong mid 20s minutes from Amare.
Brook Lopez ($7,300) – He scored 43.50 the last time against his brother, Robin and with the ridiculous amounts of options tonight, BroLo will go overlooked. His usage is still very high, at 28.5% over the last 15 games, so he will be asked to carry the Nets past the Knicks tonight.
Nikola Jokic ($5,800) – He lost time to the Nuggets going small and Jusef Nurkic lately, which will have people staying away, but the Nuggets will need Jokic’s size/skills against the Kings, who will have Cousins, Kosta Koufos and Willie Cauley-Stein in the rotation against the Nuggets. Throw in the aforementioned 218+ game total and Jokic’s established DKPPM rate and he’s a solid tourney play with 40-45 DK point upside.
Alex Len ($4,700) – Len faces off against the weakest defense against PF over the last three weeks and has struggled all season. Toss in a 215 game total, the vibe of no defense and Markieff Morris no longer wearing a Suns uniform and Len is in a great spot to show big value in tournaments tonight.