In tournaments it’s vital to find plays that contain both upside and the potential to be overlooked. Take two players that are priced at $8,100 and projected for similar output. If one is 33% drafted and the other is 5%, you want to take the 5% player every time. When he outscores the higher drafted player (which will happen often), you’re passing 27% of the field with that play. That’s a very good thing. Below are a few plays from tonight’s games that fit that mold.
Reggie Jackson ($6,500) – Reggie’s minutes and production have been down since Brandon Jennings returned, but Detroit’s been hit hard by injuries in the last week. Tonight they will be without both Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Ersan Illyasova. The absences should stabilize Reggie’s minutes in the low 30’s opposed to the high 20’s. He should also pick up a few extra shots. Most people will likely spend a little more for Rose, Ish Smith or Kyrie. I like the savings of Reggie.
Jeff Teague ($6,000) – Teague was hampered with an ankle injury for a prolonged period. It appears he’s finally over that. More importantly, his minutes have been up. The Hawks are possibly showcasing him for a trade. I expect his minutes to be in the mid 30’s again tonight. Derrick Rose’s defense has been average at best and will likely decline while he takes on a bigger offensive burden. Teague is another guy who is going to go completely overlooked tonight.
Kobe Bryant ($6,200) – Kobe’s ownership might be a bit high tonight because the narrative is strong, but I still love him. It’s his last time playing LeBron and it’s a nationally televised game. Kobe’s already been chucking, averaging 24.5 shots over the last 4 games. I wouldn’t be shocked if he approaches 30 tonight. The only concern is that the game stays close, but that’s really on him. If he can connect on some 3’s, he’ll be in the game late and should have a monster outing.
Kevin Love ($7,600) – There are a lot of strong power forward plays in the $6k price range today. Love’s also coming off one of his worst games in a long time. I think that will lead to very low ownership despite his soft matchup against the Lakers. Like with Kobe, the main concern is a blowout. I think the Lakers show up enough to keep this game competitive and that means a lot of fantasy points for Love.
Kawhi Leonard ($7,600) – Tim Duncan returns to the Spurs tonight and I think that helps Kawhi. Kawhi has struggled mightily since Duncan began missing games. Duncan doesn’t play at ton of minutes, but he is a vital piece of the Spurs offense. Kawhi has shown some signs of life recently including a big game last night. I think Duncan’s return will be a buoy to Kawhi and should help him return him to early season form. The game is projected to be reasonably competitive and, with the All-Star break looming, Kawhi should log solid minutes.
Stanley Johnson ($6,000) – After Kentavious Caldwell-Pope went down, Stanley was a popular play. His price has risen rapidly and he’s coming off a dud. I think most people will gravitate to Marcus Morris for $600 cheaper. Stanley is going to log close to 40 minutes tonight and was on a roll prior to last game. I like his chances to get back on track tonight and he’s a great leverage play to Morris.
Andre Drummond ($8,000) – Drummond is the third Pistons player to be recommended today. The team is very thin overall and players will need to pick up minutes and production. Drummond has struggled over the past month but it’s reflected in his price. He still possesses the same upside we saw earlier in the year and it’s a great matchup tonight against Denver. Drummond also has big home vs road splits and he’s at home. I love pairing Drummond with Reggie Jackson.
Al Horford ($6,600) – Horford’s minutes and production have both been on the rise as of late and tonight he gets a reeling Bulls squad. The Bulls have been hemorrhaging fantasy points and their frontcourt provides no exception. Al Horford should have a great game matching up against Pau Gasol’s swiss cheese defense.