Winning in tournaments requires getting not just good efforts from your roster, but some extra high point production. Sometimes this requires differentiation in roster and other times it’s just identifying the high-ceiling plays for the slate.
Looking for more NBA content? Check out these articles:
For our purposes, we’re going to focus on the high-ceiling plays by position, and salary tier (top end, mid tier and low end), for tonight’s games, a solid six-game slate. These are plays that could go for about, on average, six times what their salary is. (Ex. $6,000 * 6 = 36DK points equals value.)
Let’s line em up! Ask any questions on Twitter @JasonWalker_72.
James Harden ($10,500) – Everyone is going to be on John Wall tonight, and with sooooo much good reason. He’ll be in my cash games, for sure. But, we’re looking at tournament plays and while it’s cool to roll the chalk in tourneys, too, you can get a lesser owned Harden, whose ceiling is higher, because he’s 2K more expensive than Wall. Harden has hit his upside number far more this season and more consistently than Wall.
Jeff Teague ($6,700) – And with everyone running to Wall at PG, you can slip Mr. Teague’s Wild Ride in here, against the Lakers in the ATL, for a reduced rate. Teague can singe players when he’s on his game and being aggressive and last season’s loss to the Lakers must be avenged.
Wesley Matthews ($4,600) – Matthews is still reasonable priced, but not for much longer. The minutes restrictions are off and he will play long minutes tonight defending Harden, who plays major minutes himself. Matthews went back to Portland and paid off handsomely, scoring over 30 DK points in his 40 minutes. The Rockets are adding value to opposing SG, so as long as Matthews can stay on the court, he’s in line for another 30 DK point night in a high total (210) game.
Anthony Davis ($10,700) – Just like the Wall/Harden situation, LeBron James is my cash game forward, and Davis is my tournament play. Davis comes with a couple of things working in his low-owned favor. One is that given the choice between two seemingly similar players (i.e LeBron and Davis), players will choose the cheaper of the two options. The other is that folks who are looking between Harden and Davis would again go cheaper and in a better defensive spot and go with Harden against Dallas vs. Davis against Cleveland. With all that said, Davis has the highest ceiling of all players on the slate tonight, has been locked in and delivering 55+ DK games in each of the last three he’s played and having Tyreke Evans back has helped so far, scoring 1.54 DK PPM with Evans on the floor vs 1.28 without. Small sample size warning apply, but at least the return of Evans has had any initial impact, but it does look like it’s freed Davis up a little right now.
Marcus Morris ($6,100) – You can accuse of chasing 50, as in what Marcus did to his brother’s team (and Marcus’ former team) the Suns, but I’m looking at this matchup here, which has Morris against the Bucks, who are fourth worst against small forwards this season. Morris gets huge minutes from Stan Van Gundy and with most trying to go stars/scrubs to get our top line guys in play tonight, the mid-line will be forgotten and someone is going to clean up in there.
Thabo Sefolosha ($4,600) – Sefolosha will be in the game to cover Kobe, who helped upset the Hawks in Atlanta last season. Thabo has been getting nearly 20 DK points per 36 minutes from peripherals alone giving him a great floor to beat value by a considerable margin, especially if the Lakers continue to add to the opposing SF, which they’ve done consistently this season.
Andre Drummond ($9,000) – Drummond is all alone on the top line, but with so many other places to pay up tonight, even on a short slate, and people migrating to Al Horford for less at center against the Lakers, Drummond can be a steal here at 9K. Drummond is getting 30 DK points per 36 minutes without ever having to score the ball, setting him for a large game whenever he does have a big scoring game. Milwaukee has been better than average at defending the center position, but Drummond is beating those odds every night.
Zaza Pachulia ($6,300) – Again, with most rosters looking to Horford against the Lakers in Atlanta, we’ll sneak back to our guy, Zaza, to go against the eighth worst defense to opposing centers in Houston. Zaza has continued to produce, scoring over 40 DK points in four of his last seven games.
Roy Hibbert ($4,700) – Definitely tournament only play here, but the Hawks abandon the offensive glass consistently and drive up the value of opposing centers in the process. Plus, the Hawks are very tentative around the basket, especially when there is a legit rim defender back there, leading to errant shots and blocks for opposing centers. If Hibbert doesn’t get run out of the game by the Hawks’ speed, he standing to deliver a solid value game with those boards and blocks.