In tournaments it’s vital to find plays that contain both upside and the potential to be overlooked by the public. Take two players that are priced at $8,100 and projected for similar output. If one is 33% drafted and the other is 5%, you want to take the 5% player every time. When he outscores the higher drafted player (which will happen often), you’re passing 27% of the field with that play. That’s a very good thing. Below are a few plays from tonight’s games that fit that mold.
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Kyle Lowry (8,600) – John Wall shifts the entire landscape for the guards tonight. He’s coming of a monster 65.5 fp performance. Tonight he’s at home, where he’s historically been about 5 fp better, vs. a terrible Lakers squad. Not to mention, he’s crushed the Lakers in the past. He would have been my #1 GPP target tonight if he had continued his struggles last night. He didn’t. Now he’s going to be the heaviest owned player on the slate. It’s entirely possible he goes back to his middling ways of 25-35 fp outings. Don’t get me wrong, I love Wall. I’m just worried about his ownership. This situation creates leverage spots with guys like Kyle Lowry. Priced at $600 more than Wall, he’s going to go really underowned. He has a somewhat tough matchup vs ATL, but it’s projected to be a close game and Lowry has been incredibly good this year. Brandon Knight fits this mold as well.
Derrick Rose (6,100) – Derrick Rose is one of those guys that due to his injury history is always going to go underowned. He also tends to alternate good and bad nights. You never know if the Derrick that’s aggressive and attacks the rim is going to show up. This all makes him a textbook GPP play in good spots. He’s been playing better as of late and gets DEN at home. Emmaunel Mudiay won’t be able to stay in front of him so I like his chances of getting some easy layups tonight.
Kemba Walker (7,500) – I think that targeting GSW games is generally a good GPP strategy. GSW has blown so many people out and they have a valid reputation for strong defense. This game is in Charlotte where Kemba has always performed much better and it only has a 9 point spread. The signs point to a competitive game. Kemba has been very good this season and tends to thrive in up-tempo games. If this game stays close, he should exceed 40 fantasy points.
Stanley Johnson (4,000) – Stanley has been solid all year and he’s coming off his best out of 42 fp. He’s also $700 more than Jared Dudley, who will be very popular. The matchup isn’t ideal but it’s an up-tempo game which suits him.
Carmelo Anthony (8,300) – Melo hasn’t been good lately and he’s coming off a game where he was a late scratch. He’s still one of the most prolific scorers in the NBA and he will get it going again sooner rather than later. He gets PHI tonight which is an exceptional matchup. Most people will look to Porzingas given how hot he has been. I love Porzingas, but Melo is only $400 more. I like pivoting to Melo and hoping he gets his tonight.
Marcus Morris (5,900) – Marcus strikes me as the type of player that if he hits a few shots early, he becomes engaged and has a very good game. I’ve seen plenty of games where he’s mostly standing off to the side and not doing much. Tonight he gets to play his old team and face off against his brother. I think he’ll be locked in. Hopefully we’ll see a performance closer to what he was doing earlier in the season.
Pau Gasol (6,800) – Pau recently complained to the media about getting more touches in the paint and followed it up with his best performance of the season when he scored 49 fp against the Spurs. Tonight he gets a much softer matchup. I think most people will take the savings of Alex Len at center. I like spending up to be contrarian. I like Len a lot but he has struggled with foul trouble in the past and could easily have a dud tonight.
Marcin Gortat (5,800) – Gortat is coming off two very strong outings. He seems locked in and it should be easy to continue his success against the Lakers soft interior. As I said above, most people will take the savings of Alex Len which will keep Gortat’s ownership down. You can also play a center in your flex spot if you really want to play Len. Gortat has a high floor with plenty of upside.