We tip-off the month of March with a 6-game slate. There are several of interesting options to choose from, so let’s jump right into it and go over some of tonight’s targets.
Kemba Walker ($7,700) – Everything appears to be in line for Walker to have a solid performance tonight. The price is right, this is a plus matchup, and his minutes and usage remain at a high level. The Suns allow the second most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards. The last time that Walker faced the Suns, he scored 44.5 fantasy points. He has topped 40 fantasy points in six of his last nine games. The one concern here is a potential blowout as this game has a 13 point spread, but even that being the case, it’s difficult to ignore Walker at this price and in this matchup on a night where there aren’t many high-end options to choose from.
Other Options –
Stephen Curry $10,900 (check status), Damian Lillard $9,600
Editor’s Note: Stephen Curry and Andre Iguodala have been announced as out for tonight’s game. Look for Shaun Livingston to see minutes in the high twenties. Leandro Barbosa could also see an increase in minutes off the bench. Finally, look for Klay Thompson and Draymond Green to pick up a bump in usage.
Deron Williams ($5,800) – Williams played some solid basketball for most of the month of February. In the last seven games, he is averaging 32.3 minutes, 17.3 points, 7.1 assists, and 32.7 fantasy points per game. That includes a huge game against the Magic in an overtime loss. In that contest, he scored 25 points and dished out seven dimes. That performance was good for 45 fantasy points. Williams’ usage has remained above 20 and he’s $500 cheaper than he was to start the season. This is also a plus matchup as the Magic surrender 50.4 fantasy points per game to opposing point guards. Per Fantasy Labs, they have allowed +3.6 points above expectation to opposing point guards. This game has the second highest over/under of the slate and just a five point spread. He needs 29 points to hit value and has topped that in four of his last seven, and also came short of it once by half of a point.
Other Options – Jeff Teague $6,100, Jordan Clarkson $6,000, D’Angelo Russell $5,600, Ronnie Price $4,200 (high minutes/low usage)
More NBA Content for Tuesday Night
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|Player Targets||Top 5's by Position||Cheat Sheet|
Victor Oladipo ($7,200) – I looked at some of Oladipo’s numbers since February 7th which was the starting point of no more Tobias Harris on the court, and he has improved in just about every category. Since then, he’s averaging 38.6 minutes, 5.4 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 2.1 steals, 17.3 points, and 35.36 fantasy points. He has topped 40 fantasy points in three of his last six games. His usage remains a tad over 20 and he’s been averaging 35 fantasy points per game in the last month. He’s clearly benefited from Harris’ departure. Tonight he faces a Mavs team that he scored 43.8 fantasy points against in their last meeting. Granted that was in overtime, but in that game he averaged 1.1 fantasy points per minute. If he produces at the same level and plays his average minutes in recent games, that equates to potentially 42.45 fantasy points. He’s playing at a high level and should continue to do so this evening.
Other Options – Klay Thompson $7,600, Dwyane Wade $7,100
Mario Hezonja ($3,500) – Fournier is listed as doubtful for tonight’s contest which means that Hezonja could be in for his second career start. He received the start last game when Fournier sat out and scored 22.5 fantasy points while playing 27 minutes. He has now played at least 26 minutes in two consecutive games and has topped 22 fantasy points in each of those games. At this price he needs just 17.5 fantasy points to hit value. He’s in a great spot to smash that this evening so long as he gets the start and plays the minutes. Keep an eye on Fournier’s status, but if he sits, Hezonja becomes a great value play.
Other Options – Lou Williams $4,800, Bojan Bogdanovic $4,200 (volatile)
Carmelo Anthony ($8,500) – You’re either paying up for Anthony or going the more economical way at small forward today as there is no other elite option available. Anthony continues to play at a high level as he has topped 40 fantasy points in eight of his last 10 games. In that span, he has exceeded value 70 percent of the time by an average of 5.87 points. In those games, he has averaged 37.7 minutes, 9.8 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 22.2 points, and 43.9 fantasy points per game. He’s been very efficient and faces a Portland team who he fared well against in the last meeting. In that matchup, he scored 52 fantasy points in 38.3 minutes. Melo offers plenty of upside and a safe floor. Give him a go!
Luol Deng ($6,500) – If you’re taking the cheaper route, Deng has been on fire as of late. His usage rate has increased as Chris Bosh remains on the shelf. Deng has recorded double-digit rebounds in five of his last six games and faces off against the Bulls who surrender the most rebounds per game to opponents. Since returning from the All-Star break, Deng is averaging 35 minutes, 18.7 points, 11.2 rebounds, 1.3 steals, and 39.4 fantasy points per game. There is some concern that Joe Johnson may cut into Deng’s usage and minutes, but he still played 30 minutes in the last game.
Other Options – Mirza Teletovic $5,600, Kent Bazemore $5,100
Thaddeus Young ($6,900) – You know it’s slim pickings when Young is on the stud list. However, now that Joe Johnson is out of Brooklyn, Young and Brook Lopez will need to pick up some of that slack. Plus this is a great matchup for Young as the Lakers have surrendered the fourth most fantasy points per game to power forwards in the last five games. The Lakers also yield the second most rebounds per game to opponents. They have allowed +2.0 points above expectation to opposing power forwards, per Fantasy Labs. Since returning from the All-Star break, Young is averaging 35.4 fantasy points, 9.2 rebounds, 2.7 steals, and 13.8 points per game. He should be able to take full advantage of this matchup and his recent uptick in usage rate, and produce a solid stat line.
Other Options – Draymond Green $8,600, Paul Millsap $7,800
Aaron Gordon ($6,800) – Gordon is not exactly a great value, but he is some I think should be considered tonight. Much like Oladipo benefiting from Tobias Harris’ departure, Gordon has too. He’s playing more minutes and that’s converting to more production and fantasy points. In fact, he’s improved in just about every stat category. In the last nine games, he’s averaging 31.1 minutes, 12.7 points, 10.3 rebounds, 1.2 blocks, 2.8 assists, 1.8 steals, and 36.25 fantasy points per game. The last time he played against the Mavs he scored 33.75 fantasy points in 28 minutes. He makes a nice pivot play from Thaddeus Young tonight and offers a similar floor and upside. This is a plus matchup as the Mavs have allowed +2.6 points above expectation to opposing power forwards, per Fantasy Labs.
Other Options – Julius Randle $6,200, Marvin Williams $5,800, David Lee $4,000
Pau Gasol ($8,700) – Tonight may be one of those nights that rolling with two centers is the way to go, which is why I’ll be writing about the two top ones on my radar. Gasol has been playing lights out in recent games and is coming off a huge night against Portland. He finished with a triple-double and 74 fantasy points. He has had to carry this team on his back and even though Derrick Rose is expected to play tonight, it should be business as usual for Gasol. This is not the most ideal matchup as the Heat play slow paced and good defense, but Gasol’s usage and minutes can’t be ignored. He has exceeded 41 fantasy points in five consecutive games and has one triple-double in that span and missed two others by just one assists. Until he slows down, it’d be wise to ride the hot hand.
Brook Lopez ($7,500) – The Lakers surrender the second most rebounds to opponents. They yield the third most fantasy points per game and have allowed +2.7 points above expectation to opposing centers, per Fantasy Labs. Since returning from the All-Star break, Lopez is averaging 35 minutes, 23.5 points, 8.3 rebounds, 1.8 blocks, 1.7 steals, and 44.7 fantasy points per game. He has topped 46 fantasy points in four of his last six games. In his last game against the Lakers, he scored 23 points, grabbed 10 boards, and blocked four shots. That performance was good for 45.5 fantasy points. He’s one of my favorite plays on the slate and is in a great spot for another big night.
Other Options – Hassan Whiteside $8,300, Nikola Vucevic $7,800
Note: If you’re looking for a cheap option at center, Alex Len has been playing well when he gets big minutes. The problem is that his minutes have been inconsistent. With some of the potential value at other positions, I’d stick to paying up for a center tonight.