The first Tuesday of 2016 tips off with a four game slate. Below I’ll go over some of tonight’s players to target in this small slate.
UPDATE: Rajon Rondo is OUT tonight. Darren Collison should see additional minutes in his place
Rajon Rondo ($8,400) – Rondo was one rebound shy of a triple-double last night. He scored 13 points, dished out 19 dimes, grabbed nine boards, and had five steals. That was good for 63.25 fantasy points. I recommended him in yesterday’s article and as Drake would say, “I’m going back to back” with my Rondo pick. Rondo has topped 40 fantasy points in seven of his last 10 games. He has a great matchup against the Mavs who surrender 49.2 fantasy points per game to opposing point guards. Rondo is always a threat to post a triple-double and tonight is no different. He offers a very high floor and great upside. This matchup has a 214 point total and the Kings have a 104.25 implied point total.
Other Options – Stephen Curry $10,600
Jordan Clarkson ($5,400) – Clarkson has scored 26 or more fantasy points in four consecutive games, including two 32+ fantasy point games. In that span he is averaging 33.75 minutes, 15.75 points, 4.75 assists, 3.75 rebounds, 1.25 steals, and 30.94 fantasy points per game. In his last 10 games, he has exceeded value 50 percent of the time by an average of 3.63 points, per Fantasy Labs. This is going to be a paced up and high scoring game as they take on the best team in basketball. The over/under is 214 points and the Lakers have an implied point total of 100.5 points. At this price, Clarkson shouldn’t have trouble hitting value.
Other Options – Michael Carter-Williams $6,700, J.J. Barea $5,700 (if Deron Williams is out), Darren Collison $5,300
Jimmy Butler ($8,000) – Butler has played at a very high level in his last three games with Derrick Rose out nursing an injury. Rose is questionable for tonight and could potentially miss his fourth game in a row with a sore knee/hamstring. If Rose sits this one out, Butler can continue seeing a higher usage rate. In his last three games, he is averaging 47.8 fantasy points, 31 points, four rebounds, five assists, one block, and 1.3 steals per game. He faces the Bucks who have allowed the fifth most fantasy points per game to shooting guards in their last 10 games. The Bulls have the fourth highest implied point total of tonight’s slate (104.5).
Other Options – Klay Thompson $7,900
Wesley Matthews ($5,000) – Matthews takes on the Kings who surrender the sixth most fantasy points per game to shooting guards (43). They have allowed +3.1 points above expectation to opposing shooting guards, per Fantasy Labs. Matthews has dropped 26 three pointers in his last seven games and is averaging 23.1 fantasy points per game in that span. The Kings surrender the most points (107.6) and three pointers per game (10.3). Shooting guards average 2.9 three pointers per game against the Kings. This matchup has the highest total (214) and the Mavs have an implied point total of 109.75 points, which is the second highest of the slate.
Other Options – Lou Williams $5,700
Carmelo Anthony ($8,200) – Melo has topped 40 fantasy points in six of his last 10 games, including two 50+ fantasy point games. In three games against the Hawks, he’s averaging 39.8 fantasy points which is about two more fantasy points than his season average. Melo offers elite upside at a reasonable price. The Options are limited at small forward, so it may be wise to pay up for him.
Other Options – Rudy Gay $6,800, Giannis Antetokounmpo $6,700
Kent Bazemore ($5,800) – Bazemore has topped 30 fantasy points in three straight games and has been playing some solid basketball recently. In his last 10 games, he’s averaging 29.2 fantasy points, 14.2 points, 5.3 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.2 steals, and 31.5 minutes per game. In that span, he has exceeded value 60 percent of the time by an average of 3.21 points, per Fantasy Labs. Bazemore is averaging 0.89 points per minutes in three games against the Knicks this season. Assuming he plays his recent average in minutes (31.5), he’s projected to score 28 fantasy points. He needs 29 fantasy points to hit value, so it’s close. If you’re looking to save some money at the small forward position, Bazemore offers a decent floor for someone at his price.
Other Options – Andre Iguodala $5,200
Paul Millsap ($8,100) – The Hawks take on the Knicks tonight and I’m sure Millsap is happy about that. In three games against the Knicks, he is averaging 46.4 fantasy points per game. He comes into tonight’s game with four consecutive 45+ fantasy point games. The Knicks have allowed the sixth most fantasy points per game to power forwards in their last 10 (50.2) and surrender 43.9 rebounds per game. Every game this evening has an over/under of more than 200 points, but the Hawks have the third highest implied point total of the slate at 105.5 points. Give Millsap a go as he offers a very high floor and plenty of upside.
Other Options – Draymond Green $10,100, DeMarcus Cousins $10,000
Bobby Portis ($4,500) – Joakim Noah remains day-to-day with a shoulder injury and is likely sitting tonight’s game out. If that’s the case, Portis remains a solid value play. He is averaging 24.9 fantasy points, 25.25 minutes, eight rebounds, and 12 points per game in his last four. He faces a Bucks defense that allows the fourth most fantasy points per game to power forwards (49.6). They have allowed 2.3 points above expectation to opposing power forwards, per Fantasy Labs. It’s worth noting that Portis played just 18 minutes in the last game, but assuming he plays his 20-plus minutes tonight, he should have no issue hitting value. He’s averaging nearly one fantasy point per minute.
Other Options – Dirk Nowitzki $6,200
Greg Monroe ($6,500) – Monroe held his own against the Spurs in just 28 minutes last night and now has a great matchup against the Bulls. Opposing centers average 50.3 fantasy points, 19.9 points, and 15.3 rebounds per game against Chicago. The Bulls surrender the second most rebounds per game (47.4) and have allowed +1.8 points above expectation to opposing centers, per Fantasy Labs. Monroe has double digit rebounds in six of his last 10 games and is in a good spot to get a double-double against the Bulls tonight.
Other Options – Pau Gasol $7,800
Andrew Bogut ($4,700) – No other team in the NBA allows more rebounds per game than the Lakers. They yield 47.6 rebounds per game and have a -4.2 differential. They have allowed +2.6 points above expectation to opposing centers, per Fantasy Labs. The Lakers surrender the third most fantasy points per game to centers (52.1) and give up the fifth most points per game to opposing teams. Centers average 21.4 points and 16.3 rebounds against the Lakers. Needless to say, their defense is abysmal. Bogut scored 23.8 fantasy points in just 20.6 minutes against the Lakers the last time he played them. He should be able to pay off his salary tonight. If you’re looking to save some money at this position, you should consider Bogut.
Other Options – Zaza Pachulia $5,900