We’ve got a very small slate tonight, as there are just four games. While the options are limited, there are still some players that are appealing so let’s waste no time and jump right into tonight’s targets.
Looking for more NBA content? Check out these articles:
Ricky Rubio ($7,000) – Rubio was on a four game streak of 30+ fantasy points before throwing up an 18 fantasy point game on Sunday. He looks to bounce back against the Nuggets who surrender the fifth most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards (52.6). The Nuggets also allow the ninth most points per game (102.7). This game has an over/under of 204.5 points and the Timberwolves have an implied point total of 105 points. Rubio is always capable of posting a triple-double as he has flirted with it a couple of times in the last several games. In two games against the Nuggets this season, he is averaging 30.8 fantasy points. He tends to be a streaky player, which makes him a tournament play only.
Other Options – Isaiah Thomas $7,700
Darren Collison ($4,900) – Collison draws the start tonight with Rajon Rondo serving a one game suspension. Even when Rondo starts, Collison puts up solid numbers as he averages 22.6 fantasy points in 28 minutes per game. Collison is a very capable point guard and should see an increase in usage rate tonight. He’s played against the Rockets twice this season and is averaging 35.9 fantasy points per game against them. In those games, he is averaging 20 points, 7.5 assists, and 1.5 steals, while shooting 7 of 12 from beyond the arc. He has clearly taken advantage of this plus matchup in the past and should do so again tonight. The Rockets allow 51 fantasy points per game to opposing point guards. This game has the highest total of the evening at 220 points and the Kings have an implied point total of 110.75.
Other Options – Michael Carter-Williams $5,800, Patrick Beverley $4,900, Jameer Nelson $4,500
James Harden ($10,800) – Harden offers one of the highest ceilings in tonight’s slate. He has topped 50 fantasy points in six of his last 10 games, and has only scored fewer than 44 fantasy points once in that span. He’s averaging 61.5 fantasy points in two games against the Kings this season. As I mentioned above, this game has the highest total of the evening at 220 points. The Rockets have an implied point total 109.25. In each game these teams have played against each other this season, both teams have scored over 109 points in each contest and the totals have exceeded 225 points each time. Not that it matters for a player of Harden’s caliber, but the Kings allow the second most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards (44.9). They also allow the second most points per game to opposing teams (108.2).
Other Options – Andrew Wiggins $6,800
Kevin Martin ($4,700) – Since moving back into the starting lineup last Wednesday, Martin is averaging 35.5 fantasy points, 26 points, and 35.3 minutes per game. In that span, he has drained 10 three pointers. Just the other night, he scored 22 points and 32.5 fantasy points against the Nuggets. This should be a fast paced game with plenty of scoring. The Nuggets allow the sixth most fantasy points per game to shooting guards (43.1) and are yielding 2.6 three pointers. The Timberwolves have the third highest projected team total of this slate. He should have no trouble smashing value once again.
Other Options – Will Barton $6,200, O.J. Mayo $5,700
LeBron James ($10,000) – James is the most talented small forward of the evening. He has topped 59 fantasy points in two of his last three games and offers one of the higher ceiling of tonight’s slate. The pace of this game may not be what we are comfortable with when paying up for an elite player and the Celtics are a good defensive team, but when it comes to small forwards, they allow the fifth most fantasy points per game (42.1). This game has an over/under of 201.5 points and the Cavs have an implied point total of 101.25. Chances are this won’t be a shootout, but LeBron should still get his and could be the least owned of all the $10,000+ salary players making it a bonus in tournaments.
Other Options – Rudy Gay $6,900, Giannis Antetokounmpo $6,800
Omri Casspi ($5,600) – Casspi is averaging 35.3 minutes, 27.6 fantasy points, 14 points, 6.3 boards, and 2.3 assists in his last four games. The games between the Kings and Rockets this season have been high scoring and fast paced. In two games against them, Casspi is averaging 28.6 fantasy points in 32.5 minutes per game. The Rockets yield the second most fantasy points per game to opposing small forwards (43.8). His price has steadily increased, but he still provides enough upside to potentially 6x his salary and shouldn’t have too much trouble hitting value. By now, you’re aware this game has the highest total of tonight’s slate.
Other Options – Trevor Ariza $5,500
Demarcus Cousins ($10,200) – Cousins did not played his best basketball against the Rockets the one time he faced them. In that game he scored 32.3 fantasy points, 14 points, and grabbed just nine boards. I’m fully expecting a much better performance tonight, especially that Rajon Rondo is out which should increase Cousins already high usage rate. The Rockets surrender the seventh most rebounds per game in the NBA (46) and have a -2.9 differential. Whether he starts at the four or at the five tonight, it doesn’t matter as the Rockets have trouble against bigs period. Cousins has scored 23 or more points in his last two games and has grabbed double digit fantasy points in each of those games, while topping 47 fantasy points in both contests. One last thing, this game has a 220 point total.
Other Options – Kevin Love $8,000
Kenneth Faried ($6,000) – Faried’s price isn’t that cheap, but it’s in a spot that he could easily hit value and also potentially 6x his salary. He has topped 27 fantasy points in five consecutive games, including two 30+ fantasy point performances. In two games against the Timberwolves this season, he is averaging 32.1 fantasy points per game. He’s a streaky player so I would only advise him in tournaments. This game has the second highest over/under of the slate at 204.5 points.
Other Options – Jabari Parker $5,100, Amir Johnson $4,700
Greg Monroe ($7,100) – Monroe has scored 40 or more fantasy points in three of his last six games. He’s coming off of a 48.75 fantasy point performances against the Warriors on Saturday as they handed them their first loss. In that game Monroe scored 28 points and grabbed 11 boards. Tonight he has a great matchup on deck as he faces off against the Lakers who allow the third most fantasy points per game to opposing centers (52.2). In their last five games, they’ve actually allowed 66 fantasy points per game to centers, which is by far the most by any team in that time frame. Opposing centers average 21.7 points and 16.2 rebounds against the Lakers. The Lakers also allow the second most rebounds per game to opposing teams (47.6) and have one of the highest differentials in the league at -4.6. Monroe should dominate under the glass tonight and have a big game against a horrible front court defense.
Other Options – Dwight Howard $7,200, Karl-Anthony Towns $7,300